A weekly round-up of geopolitical flashpoint and energy news we’re keeping our eyes on, and trends impacting global markets, which will later be accessible for Premium members and above…

Finally the Ukrainian and Russian governments agree on something… but it doesn’t bode well for the prospect of WWIII. Days ago Ukraine’s defense minister called his country a de facto NATO member in a television interview. Well over a week has passed since the interview was published and even offered in English translation (which was done by Russian state media). And yet scant attention was paid in Western media – at least not on the level the remarks deserved. Here’s what DM Oleksii Reznikov said…

“At the NATO Summit in Madrid [in June 2022]…it was clearly delineated that over the coming decade, the main threat to the alliance would be the Russian Federation. Today Ukraine is eliminating this threat. We are carrying out NATO’s mission today. They aren’t shedding their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply us with weapons.”

In follow-up to the rare, ultra-blunt assessment from a top Kiev official, independent geopolitical analyst Aaron Mate teased out the implications, particularly at a moment both sides have committed to a fight to the finish over Bakhmut. Matte writes: 

Predictably, Ukrainian soldiers that “bear the consequences of war” are facing heavy losses. Speaking to Newsweek, retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Andrew Milburn, who has trained and led Ukrainian forces for the private mercenary firm Mozart Group, reports that in the battle for Bakhmut, Ukraine has been “taking extraordinarily high casualties. The numbers you are reading in the media about 70 percent and above casualties being routine are not exaggerated.”

Ukraine is now “taking high casualties on the Bakhmut-Soledar front, quickly depleting the strength of several brigades sent there as reinforcements in the past month,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “Western—and some Ukrainian—officials, soldiers and analysts increasingly worry that Kyiv has allowed itself to be sucked into the battle for Bakhmut on Russian terms, losing the forces it needs for a planned spring offensive as it stubbornly clings to a town of limited strategic relevance.” According to one battlefield Ukrainian commander, “the exchange rate of trading our lives for theirs favors the Russians. If this goes on like this, we could run out.”

Consider the above with another very stark assessment of where things are headed (or perhaps, something which is already fast unfolding before our eyes but which the world is slow to acknowledge): prominent French historian and anthropologist Emmanuel Todd told France’s popular daily  of his words in the following thread:

Emmanuel Todd, one of the greatest French intellectuals today, claims that the “Third World War has started.”

Small 🧵 translating the most important points in this fascinating interview.https://t.co/eYdKoBJx7B

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) January 13, 2023

Emmanuel Todd argues that “it’s obvious that the conflict, which started as a limited territorial war and is escalating to a global economic confrontation between the whole of the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand, has become a world war.”

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Below are global developments we are closely following this week…

Russia-Ukraine

• French historian and anthropologist Emmanuel Todd: “The third world war has began”UnHerd

• Zelensky adviser resigns after blaming Ukraine for Dnipro apartment bombingThe Hill

• Dnipro death toll rising as Kremlin rejects charges that it’s forces are responsibleAP

• Bloody Bakhmut siege poses risks for UkraineWaPo

• EU calls grow for special tribunal for Russia’s ‘war crimes’ in UkraineForeign Affairs

• Ukraine and Russia agree… Russia is fighting NATOMoA

• CNN admits Ukraine has become a ‘Weapons Lab’ for Western armsAW

• MSM Admits Russiagate Farce… years lateCN

• Walking Back the Russian Troll ScareCN

• US begins expanded training of Ukrainian forces in GermanyAW

• Joint chiefs’ Gen. Milley visits to inspect troopsStripes

• Russia confirms it will expand Army to 1.5 MillionBBG

• Kiev still warning that large-scale new offensive imminentWSJ

• Russia posts record current account surplus of $227 billion in 2022RTRS

• Russian, Chinese businessmen to skip 2023 World Economic Forum in DavosTASS

• Worries in Davos that globalization is under siegeWaPo

• Ukraine tells WEF over 9,000 civilians killedAJ

• Polish PM Decries WWIII, Says More Arms to Ukraine Will Prevent ItRon Paul Inst.

• Britain Urges Germany to Permit Supply of Tanks to UkraineRTRS

China-Asia

• US, Taiwan talks raise hopes for free-trade pactSCMP

• China’s Vice Premier at Davos: life has returned to normal, growth will return… open for investorsOP

• Yellen to meet Chinese official in bid to ease tensionsAFP

• China holds live-fire drills in South China Sea in wake of US warship enteringAW

• Pakistan PM seeks India talks on ‘burning issues such as Kashmir’AJ

• Daughter of Thailand’s Exiled Former PM Thaksin to Seek PremiershipRTRS

• Firms in Europe, US helping Myanmar manufacture arms, report saysAJ

• China’s population falls for first time since 1961BBC

• China reports 3% GDP growth for 2022CNBC

Middle East/World

• Saudi Arabia Says Open to Settling Trade in Other CurrenciesBBG

• Here are the fastest growing weapons manufacturers in the world247 WallSt

• Chinese Foreign Minister calls on Israel to stop worsening Palestine issue with provocationSCMP

• Hamas publishes unverified video of Israeli citizen held captive in GazaMEE

• Movement by Turkish far right to deport Syrian refugeesMEE

• Over 90 countries at UN slam Israel’s increasing crackdown on PalestiniansMEE

• Jailed Iranian-American starts hunger strike, appeals to BidenAJ

Energy

• Europe’s gas emergency: A continent hostage to seller pricesThe Cradle

• Poland, Lithuania want lower Russian oil cap, nuclear curbs in new EU sanctionsRTRS

• New York may be the first state to ban gas stovesRon Paul Inst.

• UK and others: hottest year on record as Putin tried to squeeze EuropeEN

• Oil Rises As OPEC Sees Chinese Demand ReboundingOP

• India’s oil imports From Russia jump 33 times to record highOP

• Germany will need to hold onto coal power for longer than plannedOP