For The First Time Since 2000, Most Assets Are Overbought

What a difference two months makes. Back in December, with virtually every asset class getting clobbered ahead of the year-end flood of hedge fund redemption requests, the most popular chart was one from Deutsche Bank showing how virtually every single asset class would post negative returns in 2018.

Fast forward to today when just days after we noted that stock market breadth had just hit an all time high, prompting some commentators to describe the move in January and February as a blow off top (similar to what we saw one year ago), the “buying panic” as Nomura described it earlier this week has spread to virtually every asset class, a carbon copy of what traders encountered in the early days of QE… which is perhaps to be expected: after all, with the Fed now admitting that a rate cut is inevitable, what follows next is QE.

In any case, as Bloomberg notes this morning, stocks, corporate bonds (both investment grade and junk), oil and gold have all been resounding winners in the new year. Each of the five asset classes – simultaneously – had a 14-day relative strength index at or above the overbought level of 70 on Wednesday.

That hasn’t happened since at least the year 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Alas – for the bulls – with everything having triggered the overbought signal, it means that the good times are coming to an end. Because whatever the cause behind this buying euphoria – one made even more bizarre since both retail and institutional investors have been mostly selling for the duration of this rally – one hedge fund warns that the euphoria might be the last gasp in the 9-week old rally.

“In our view, September of 2018 marked the peak of the economic cycle with U.S. stocks at record valuations across eight fundamental measures,” Crescat Capital’s Tavi Costa told Bloomberg. “We are now seeing a typical bear market rally, and the next downward leg is likely to be just as abrupt as the first one.”

The only question is what will be the catalyst for the next abrupt move lower.

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time since 2000, most assets ade overbought [195] => for the first time since 2000, most assets afe overbought [196] => for the first time since 2000, most assets ate overbought [197] => for the first time since 2000, most assets a5e overbought [198] => for the first time since 2000, most assets a4e overbought [199] => for the first time since 2000, most assets arw overbought [200] => for the first time since 2000, most assets ars overbought [201] => for the first time since 2000, most assets ard overbought [202] => for the first time since 2000, most assets arr overbought [203] => for the first time since 2000, most assets ar4 overbought [204] => for the first time since 2000, most assets ar3 overbought [205] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are iverbought [206] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are kverbought [207] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are lverbought [208] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are pverbought [209] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are 0verbought [210] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are 9verbought [211] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ocerbought [212] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are oberbought [213] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ogerbought [214] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are oferbought [215] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ovwrbought [216] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ovsrbought [217] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ovdrbought [218] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ovrrbought [219] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ov4rbought [220] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ov3rbought [221] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are oveebought [222] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ovedbought [223] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ovefbought [224] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ovetbought [225] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ove5bought [226] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are ove4bought [227] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overvought [228] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overnought [229] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overhought [230] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overgought [231] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbiught [232] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbkught [233] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overblught [234] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbpught [235] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overb0ught [236] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overb9ught [237] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboyght [238] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbohght [239] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbojght [240] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboight [241] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbo8ght [242] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbo7ght [243] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboufht [244] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbouvht [245] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboubht [246] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbouhht [247] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbouyht [248] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboutht [249] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbouggt [250] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbougbt [251] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbougnt [252] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbougjt [253] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbougut [254] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbougyt [255] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboughr [256] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboughf [257] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboughg [258] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overboughy [259] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbough6 [260] => for the first time since 2000, most assets are overbough5 ) </h1> </body>