Hedge Fund CIO: Extreme Trader Confidence Is About To Turn To Abject Fear

Submitted by Lindsay Politi of One River Asset Management

Ghosts of Investments Present

Cold Sweat: “I’m a trader, not an economist,” I said to the PhD, “so you know monetary theory better than I. But I know what it feels like to wake up in a cold sweat when a big trade goes wrong. The extreme confidence that leads traders to super-size a trade flips to abject fear when that conviction wavers and we realize we’re way too big.

Central banks (and numerous large investment strategies) went all-in on secular stagnation. They confidently plowed trillions into the idea. Now they want out and the exit is far smaller than they’d imagined. They lay awake. They’re not controlling the trade anymore; the trade is controlling them.”

Reality:

  • Macron thought he had policy options. Reality was quite different. A decade of failed, painful austerity narrowed his tolerable policy options. Whether or not Brussels has heard the message, Macron has: austerity is dead.
  • Draghi believed he would have choices. But years of asset purchases and negative rates failed to produce an expansion sufficiently robust to allow for policy normalization. And now the economy is slowing with rates at -0.40%.
  • Powell inherited a legacy of choices, consequences. His predecessors left him with mission impossible. Yet he thought the massive tax stimulus had given him policy options. But reality is quite different.

Arguments: Hobson theorized that internationalism is an extension of secular stagnation. Declining domestic demand and capital returns led to a search for new markets. International returns were high due to political risk. So the economic elite lobbied national governments to expand their international influence to secure their foreign investments. Hobson thought the benefits of free trade failed to account for the expense of national governments protecting private investment abroad. Today’s debates about nationalism versus internationalism are old. And historically, a retreat from internationalism has signaled a shift away from secular stagnation.

Relationships: “So QE leads to inflation?” asked the CIO. “Perhaps, but that’s not the interesting relationship,” I said. After 10yrs of these policies, inflation now controls QE. Central banks explicitly or implicitly must respond to inflation, some with little flexibility. So inflation controls their reaction function far more than they control inflation. As they embark on quantitative tightening and the great unwind of the QE bubble, inflation will determine the fate of the $20trln+ central bank balance sheets and, by extension, the path of financial markets. That’s why, over the coming 5-10yrs, inflation will be the most important market variable.

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confidence is about to turn to abject fear [121] => hedge fund cio: extreme traser confidence is about to turn to abject fear [122] => hedge fund cio: extreme traxer confidence is about to turn to abject fear [123] => hedge fund cio: extreme tracer confidence is about to turn to abject fear [124] => hedge fund cio: extreme trafer confidence is about to turn to abject fear [125] => hedge fund cio: extreme trarer confidence is about to turn to abject fear [126] => hedge fund cio: extreme traeer confidence is about to turn to abject fear [127] => hedge fund cio: extreme tradwr confidence is about to turn to abject fear [128] => hedge fund cio: extreme tradsr confidence is about to turn to abject fear [129] => hedge fund cio: extreme traddr confidence is about to turn to abject fear [130] => hedge fund cio: extreme tradrr confidence is about to turn to abject fear [131] => hedge fund cio: extreme trad4r confidence is about to turn to abject fear [132] => hedge fund cio: extreme trad3r 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cknfidence is about to turn to abject fear [145] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader clnfidence is about to turn to abject fear [146] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader cpnfidence is about to turn to abject fear [147] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader c0nfidence is about to turn to abject fear [148] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader c9nfidence is about to turn to abject fear [149] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader cobfidence is about to turn to abject fear [150] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader comfidence is about to turn to abject fear [151] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader cojfidence is about to turn to abject fear [152] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader cohfidence is about to turn to abject fear [153] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader condidence is about to turn to abject fear [154] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader concidence is about to turn to abject fear [155] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader convidence is about to turn to abject fear [156] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader congidence is about to turn to abject fear [157] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader contidence is about to turn to abject fear [158] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader conridence is about to turn to abject fear [159] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confudence is about to turn to abject fear [160] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confjdence is about to turn to abject fear [161] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confkdence is about to turn to abject fear [162] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confodence is about to turn to abject fear [163] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader conf9dence is about to turn to abject fear [164] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader conf8dence is about to turn to abject fear [165] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confisence is about to turn to abject fear [166] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confixence is about to turn to abject fear [167] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader conficence is about to turn to abject fear [168] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader 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confidehce is about to turn to abject fear [181] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidenxe is about to turn to abject fear [182] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidenve is about to turn to abject fear [183] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidenfe is about to turn to abject fear [184] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidende is about to turn to abject fear [185] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidencw is about to turn to abject fear [186] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidencs is about to turn to abject fear [187] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidencd is about to turn to abject fear [188] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidencr is about to turn to abject fear [189] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidenc4 is about to turn to abject fear [190] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidenc3 is about to turn to abject fear [191] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence us about to turn to abject fear [192] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence js about to turn to abject fear [193] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence ks about to turn to abject fear [194] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence os about to turn to abject fear [195] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence 9s about to turn to abject fear [196] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence 8s about to turn to abject fear [197] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence ia about to turn to abject fear [198] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence iz about to turn to abject fear [199] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence ix about to turn to abject fear [200] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence id about to turn to abject fear [201] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence ie about to turn to abject fear [202] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence iw about to turn to abject fear [203] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is zbout to turn to abject fear [204] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is sbout to turn to abject fear [205] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is wbout to turn to abject fear [206] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is qbout to turn to abject fear [207] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is avout to turn to abject fear [208] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is anout to turn to abject fear [209] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is ahout to turn to abject fear [210] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is agout to turn to abject fear [211] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abiut to turn to abject fear [212] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abkut to turn to abject fear [213] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is ablut to turn to abject fear [214] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abput to turn to abject fear [215] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is ab0ut to turn to abject fear [216] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is ab9ut to turn to abject fear [217] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is aboyt to turn to abject fear [218] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is aboht to turn to abject fear [219] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abojt to turn to abject fear [220] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is aboit to turn to abject fear [221] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abo8t to turn to abject fear [222] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abo7t to turn to abject fear [223] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abour to turn to abject fear [224] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abouf to turn to abject fear [225] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is aboug to turn to abject fear [226] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abouy to turn to abject fear [227] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abou6 to turn to abject fear [228] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is abou5 to turn to abject fear [229] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about ro turn to abject fear [230] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about fo turn to abject fear [231] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about go turn to abject fear [232] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about yo turn to abject fear [233] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about 6o turn to abject fear [234] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about 5o turn to abject fear [235] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about ti turn to abject fear [236] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about tk turn to abject fear [237] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about tl turn to abject fear [238] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about tp turn to abject fear [239] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about t0 turn to abject fear [240] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about t9 turn to abject fear [241] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to rurn to abject fear [242] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to furn to abject fear [243] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to gurn to abject fear [244] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to yurn to abject fear [245] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to 6urn to abject fear [246] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to 5urn to abject fear [247] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tyrn to abject fear [248] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to thrn to abject fear [249] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tjrn to abject fear [250] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tirn to abject fear [251] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to t8rn to abject fear [252] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to t7rn to abject fear [253] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tuen to abject fear [254] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tudn to abject fear [255] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tufn to abject fear [256] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tutn to abject fear [257] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tu5n to abject fear [258] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to tu4n to abject fear [259] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turb to abject fear [260] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turm to abject fear [261] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turj to abject fear [262] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turh to abject fear [263] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn ro abject fear [264] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn fo abject fear [265] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn go abject fear [266] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn yo abject fear [267] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn 6o abject fear [268] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn 5o abject fear [269] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn ti abject fear [270] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn tk abject fear [271] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn tl abject fear [272] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn tp abject fear [273] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn t0 abject fear [274] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn t9 abject fear [275] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to zbject fear [276] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to sbject fear [277] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to wbject fear [278] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to qbject fear [279] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to avject fear [280] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to anject fear [281] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to ahject fear [282] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to agject fear [283] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abhect fear [284] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abnect fear [285] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abmect fear [286] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abkect fear [287] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abiect fear [288] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abuect fear [289] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjwct fear [290] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjsct fear [291] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjdct fear [292] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjrct fear [293] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abj4ct fear [294] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abj3ct fear [295] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjext fear [296] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjevt fear [297] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjeft fear [298] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjedt fear [299] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjecr fear [300] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjecf fear [301] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjecg fear [302] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjecy fear [303] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjec6 fear [304] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abjec5 fear [305] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject dear [306] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject cear [307] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject vear [308] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject gear [309] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject tear [310] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject rear [311] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fwar [312] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fsar [313] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fdar [314] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject frar [315] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject f4ar [316] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject f3ar [317] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fezr [318] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fesr [319] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fewr [320] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject feqr [321] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject feae [322] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fead [323] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject feaf [324] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject feat [325] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fea5 [326] => hedge fund cio: extreme trader confidence is about to turn to abject fea4 ) </h1> </body>