IceCap Asset Management: An Entire Generation Of Investment Professionals Has No Idea What’s Coming

Submitted by Keith Decker of IceCap Asset Management

Asymmetrical Risk-Return Relationships

Want to know why the house always wins in Vegas? It’s because the odds, or probable outcomes are always in favour of the house, or put another way – the gambler always has the deck stacked against him. This concept is called the asymmetrical risk-return relationship, and it also exists in the investment world.

The average investor is told that stocks always go up over the long-run.

Although the long-run is rarely defined, and it’s never the same for every person or every market; this expression is effectively trying to describe an asymmetrical risk return relationship. This relationship is one where the expected positive returns from the stock market significantly exceed the expected negative returns from the stock market.

The same is also true for the bond market.

When bonds are paying you interest payments of 3% a year – you expect to receive at least 3% as your return, and never anything less than that – after all, it’s a BOND and bonds are safe.

And THIS is the key concept that the majority are missing, fail to understand, or are simply not allowed to discuss.

What we mean by this is that in the bond world, virtually every investor has been told that bonds are always safe, you’ll always get your money back, and they are meant for conservative investors, and investors who want to keep a little somethin’-somethin’ for a rainy day.

Of course – IceCap is telling you, this is wishful thinking. 2018 is not the same as 2008, 1999, 1989 or even 1982 for that matter.

The financial world we live in today is COMPLETELY different than any other moment in time ever experienced by anyone in the investment world.

For two reasons.

First over the last 38 years, long-term interest rates have steadily declined from nearly 20% all the way to 0%. This is important, because as long-term interest rates decline steadily – bond market returns increase steadily. This trend has reversed, and so too will the investment experience for everyone investing in the global bond market.

Second, the debt super cycle borrowing binge was all enabled by unchallenged, free wheeling governments fueled by low interest rates on borrowed money.

Yet these two, very easy to see and very easy to understand facts are completely missing from the investment industry, the investment media and most disappointing of all – the universities and colleges who are churning out CFA seeking millennials by the boat load. Recently, we’ve had several conversations with larger pension funds who all recounted how increasingly their bond fund managers have turned into 30 year olds. While there’s nothing wrong with a little youth movement every now and then – there is something wrong when these young guns are charging through fixed income presentations extorting their 10 years industry experience and pounding the table on the incredible opportunities they expect to occur in the land of bonds.

To be clear – there’s now an entire generation of investment professionals around the world who’s entire career (both professional and academic) has occurred during a period dominated by:

  • 0% interest rates
  • negative% interest rates
  • QE and money printing
  • bank bailouts
  • and sovereign debt bailouts

Why is this important?

This is important because the industry as a group creates, forms and distributes risk-return expectations for every dollar in the investment universe.

When markets are charging dead ahead into an all-certain event, the investing public looks for leaders. It looks for dynamic wisdom. It looks for 5-dimensional thinking. Instead, the industry is increasingly being lead by fearless leaders who’ve earned exactly zero stripes, no investment scars, and who are not compensated to see the investment world for what it is – a complex, interconnected relationship between and amongst multiple factors which always move in sync (positive and negative correlations) during significant turning points.

While everyone today is closely watching equity markets – and justifiably so from a daily movement perspective, the majority do not realize the market magician is using the oldest trick in the book – distraction with the slight of hand. In the world of magic – there really isn’t any magic. Instead, the slight of hand, moves just enough to distract the audience from what is really happening.

And yes, corrections in equity markets are very unsettling and as described earlier, IceCap certainly does takes them seriously. Yet, unlike the majority, we have not taken our eye off the ball, nor have we become distracted by the emotional market churning noise. And we most certainly, have not been lulled into a sleeping comfort by the new generation of bond managers.

Instead, we share with you the market trick at hand – the asymmetrical risk-return relationship currently offered to every investor in the world.

Our diagram on this page illustrates the return expectations for the bond market.

The “A” column is representative of current global fixed income markets.

The upside to investing in low-risk bond strategies is approximately 3%. Yet, as IceCap’s expectation for a crisis in sovereign debt escalates, the expected losses will be 20% or more. We tell you with certainty – these are the kind of odds you normally would only find in Vegas. In bond markets today, the sellers of bonds are pulling the wool over the eyes of the buyers of bonds.

And we’re sorry to tell you, everyone today including mutual fund investors, target date funds, life cycle funds, and especially pension funds are set-up for long-term losses in their fixed income strategies. We’ll next show you why this fixed income market environment cannot be avoided. It will happen. That’s the bad news.

Read the full presentation below

2018.12 IceCap Global Marke… by on Scribd

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management: an entire generation of investmebt professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [252] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmemt professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [253] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmejt professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [254] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmeht professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [255] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmenr professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [256] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmenf professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [257] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmeng professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [258] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmeny professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [259] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmen6 professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [260] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investmen5 professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [261] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment orofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [262] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment lrofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [263] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment -rofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [264] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment 0rofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [265] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment peofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [266] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment pdofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [267] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment pfofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [268] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment ptofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [269] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment p5ofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [270] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment p4ofessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [271] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment prifessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [272] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment prkfessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [273] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment prlfessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [274] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment prpfessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [275] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment pr0fessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [276] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment pr9fessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [277] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment prodessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [278] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment processionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [279] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment provessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [280] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment progessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [281] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment protessionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [282] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment proressionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [283] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profwssionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [284] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profsssionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [285] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profdssionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [286] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profrssionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [287] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment prof4ssionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [288] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment prof3ssionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [289] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profeasionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [290] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profezsionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [291] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profexsionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [292] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profedsionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [293] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profeesionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [294] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profewsionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [295] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profesaionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [296] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profeszionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [297] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profesxionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [298] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profesdionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [299] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profeseionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [300] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profeswionals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [301] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professuonals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [302] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professjonals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [303] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professkonals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [304] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professoonals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [305] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profess9onals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [306] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment profess8onals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [307] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professiinals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [308] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professiknals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [309] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professilnals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [310] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professipnals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [311] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professi0nals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [312] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professi9nals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [313] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professiobals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [314] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professiomals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [315] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professiojals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [316] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professiohals has no idea what&#8217;s coming [317] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionzls has no idea what&#8217;s coming [318] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionsls has no idea what&#8217;s coming [319] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionwls has no idea what&#8217;s coming [320] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionqls has no idea what&#8217;s coming [321] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionaks has no idea what&#8217;s coming [322] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionaps has no idea what&#8217;s coming [323] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionaos has no idea what&#8217;s coming [324] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionala has no idea what&#8217;s coming [325] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionalz has no idea what&#8217;s coming [326] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionalx has no idea what&#8217;s coming [327] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionald has no idea what&#8217;s coming [328] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionale has no idea what&#8217;s coming [329] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionalw has no idea what&#8217;s coming [330] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals gas no idea what&#8217;s coming [331] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals bas no idea what&#8217;s coming [332] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals nas no idea what&#8217;s coming [333] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals jas no idea what&#8217;s coming [334] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals uas no idea what&#8217;s coming [335] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals yas no idea what&#8217;s coming [336] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals hzs no idea what&#8217;s coming [337] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals hss no idea what&#8217;s coming [338] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals hws no idea what&#8217;s coming [339] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals hqs no idea what&#8217;s coming [340] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals haa no idea what&#8217;s coming [341] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals haz no idea what&#8217;s coming [342] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals hax no idea what&#8217;s coming [343] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals had no idea what&#8217;s coming [344] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals hae no idea what&#8217;s coming [345] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals haw no idea what&#8217;s coming [346] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has bo idea what&#8217;s coming [347] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has mo idea what&#8217;s coming [348] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has jo idea what&#8217;s coming [349] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has ho idea what&#8217;s coming [350] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has ni idea what&#8217;s coming [351] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has nk idea what&#8217;s coming [352] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has nl idea what&#8217;s coming [353] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has np idea what&#8217;s coming [354] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has n0 idea what&#8217;s coming [355] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has n9 idea what&#8217;s coming [356] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no udea what&#8217;s coming [357] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no jdea what&#8217;s coming [358] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no kdea what&#8217;s coming [359] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no odea what&#8217;s coming [360] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no 9dea what&#8217;s coming [361] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no 8dea what&#8217;s coming [362] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no isea what&#8217;s coming [363] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no ixea what&#8217;s coming [364] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no icea what&#8217;s coming [365] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no ifea what&#8217;s coming [366] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no irea what&#8217;s coming [367] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no ieea what&#8217;s coming [368] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idwa what&#8217;s coming [369] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idsa what&#8217;s coming [370] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idda what&#8217;s coming [371] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idra what&#8217;s coming [372] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no id4a what&#8217;s coming [373] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no id3a what&#8217;s coming [374] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idez what&#8217;s coming [375] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no ides what&#8217;s coming [376] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idew what&#8217;s coming [377] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no ideq what&#8217;s coming [378] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea qhat&#8217;s coming [379] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea ahat&#8217;s coming [380] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea shat&#8217;s coming [381] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea ehat&#8217;s coming [382] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea 3hat&#8217;s coming [383] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea 2hat&#8217;s coming [384] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wgat&#8217;s coming [385] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wbat&#8217;s coming [386] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wnat&#8217;s coming [387] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wjat&#8217;s coming [388] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wuat&#8217;s coming [389] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wyat&#8217;s coming [390] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whzt&#8217;s coming [391] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whst&#8217;s coming [392] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whwt&#8217;s coming [393] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whqt&#8217;s coming [394] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whar&#8217;s coming [395] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whaf&#8217;s coming [396] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whag&#8217;s coming [397] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea whay&#8217;s coming [398] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wha6&#8217;s coming [399] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea wha5&#8217;s coming [400] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#7217;s coming [401] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#u217;s coming [402] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#i217;s coming [403] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#9217;s coming [404] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8117;s coming [405] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8q17;s coming [406] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8w17;s coming [407] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8317;s coming [408] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8227;s coming [409] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#82q7;s coming [410] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8216;s coming [411] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#821y;s coming [412] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#821u;s coming [413] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8218;s coming [414] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;a coming [415] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;z coming [416] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;x coming [417] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;d coming [418] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;e coming [419] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;w coming [420] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s xoming [421] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s voming [422] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s foming [423] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s doming [424] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s ciming [425] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s ckming [426] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s clming [427] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s cpming [428] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s c0ming [429] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s c9ming [430] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coning [431] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s coking [432] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s cojing [433] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comung [434] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comjng [435] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comkng [436] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comong [437] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s com9ng [438] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s com8ng [439] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comibg [440] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comimg [441] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comijg [442] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comihg [443] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s cominf [444] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s cominv [445] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s cominb [446] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s cominh [447] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s cominy [448] => icecap asset management: an entire generation of investment professionals has no idea what&#8217;s comint ) </h1> </body>