Iraq Is Next: Here’s Why All US Troops Could Be Out By End Of Trump’s 1st Term

Authored by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

The US presidential plane landed in the darkness of the Iraqi military base of Ayn al-Assad in west Anbar with Donald Trump onboard. But by the time his plane took off three hours later, Trump left behind a protocol-political-parliamentary storm in Mesopotamia as Iraqi members of parliament requested the departure of the 5200 US forces from the country.

None of the three Iraqi leaders (Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi, Speaker Mohammad al-Halbusi, President Barham Salih) came to receive Trump as all three rejected US conditions for such a meeting. Trump seems determined to leave Syria without interfering with who will control the territory behind him: on Friday morning the Syrian Army entered the outskirt of the city of Manbij following a deal between Kurdish leaders and the government of Damascus. Will he also end up leaving Iraq before the end of his term in January 2021?

President Trump, accompanied by National Security Adviser John Bolton, first lady Melania Trump, US Ambassador to Iraq Doug Silliman, and senior military leadership, speaks to members of the media at Al Asad Air Base, Iraq. via the AP

In preparation for Trump’s visit, Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdel Mahdi was asked to meet the US president. He agreed to meet Trump either in Baghdad, on Iraqi soil, or at the Ayn al-Assad military base, on the Iraqi side of the base; Iraqi national security forces and army units are present at the same base where US forces are deployed, in a separate part of the base. To have met on the US-controlled part of the Iraqi-US base would have made Abdel Mahdi appear as an invited guest in his own country.

A few hours before Trump’s arrival, US Ambassador Douglas Silliman told Abdel Mahdi that Trump would receive him in the US part of the base. Trump refused to visit Baghdad for a quick reception; neither would he even cross over to the Iraqi side of Ayn al-Assad, for security reasons. Abdel Mahdi refused the US invitation, as did the Iraqi president and speaker. All three politicians have risen in public esteem for having refused the US invitation.

Trump’s disregard for protocol when landing in a sovereign foreign country has infuriated local politicians, heads of organizations and members of parliament. They felt insulted and have called for the withdrawal of US forces from the country. Others threatened to force US troops out of the country.

Qais al-Khaz’ali, the head of a parliamentary coalition and leader of “Asaeb Ahl al-haq” (responsible for killing US soldiers during their occupation of Iraq between 2003 and 2011), said “Iraq will respond (to the Trump insult) through a parliamentary demand that you pull out your troops and if you don’t leave, we have the (military) experience to force you out”.

Tension was increased by Trump’s announcement that he plans to keep his forces in Iraq and may return troops from Syria to the Iraqi base. “Hezbollah Iraq” responded immediately by pledging to “cut the hand that will hit Syria from Iraqi bases”.

The US president seems prepared to keep his promise to withdraw from Syria, at least in the case of Manbij. The US announced an “organized exit”, meaning withdrawal in coordination with Turkey so that Ankara’s forces could replace withdrawing US troops. Turkey has been preparing to enter Manbij and Tal Abiad by gathering thousands of forces and proxies standing at the borders of the Syrian province. Nevertheless, the deal reached on Thursday night between the Syrian government and the YPG Kurds gave the green light to the 1stand 5thdivisions of the Syrian army to take back Manbij, and raise Russian and Syrian flags over the city. This development is blocking the road for Turkey and its proxies to move into the province. The decision was communicated to Turkey via Russia.

Moscow is standing in the way of any change of power on the ground, refusing Turkey control of more Syrian territory not already included in the “Astana deal”, which conceded Turkey’s temporary jurisdiction in the region of Idlib. Russia believes there should be a natural handover of the Kurdish-controlled areas to the Syrian Army following US withdrawal. Damascus and Tehran are adamant in this case: only Syrian forces should replace US troops in al-Hasaka province.

Moreover, Damascus forces are still based in Qamishli and can easily take over control of all positions when the US withdraw its occupation forces from northeastern Syria. Already there are observation points (villages) under the control of the Syrian Army, some with Russian observers, in different villages around Manbij. These represent a clear message to Ankara that no troops can cross without Russian agreement, otherwise they will be bombed and attacked. The control of Manbij is a game changer and a clear indication that the government of Damascus will take control of al-Hasaka province to concentrate later on Idlib, after the US withdrawal, with the help of Moscow.

Russia called for an important meeting between presidential envoys, Foreign and Defense ministers and heads of intelligence services of both Russia and Turkey on Saturday in Moscow to talk about the US withdrawal and the role of each side. Another meeting (not yet final) is scheduled between Turkey, Russia and Iran in Moscow in a few weeks. The aim is to prevent any split between these leaders that could be triggered by the US withdrawal from occupied Syria. Damascus rejected the presence of the local Kurdish administration on its side and agreed to disarm the Kurds, a Turkish and Syrian request, after defeating ISIS. Indeed, the Kurds will help the Syrian army fight ISIS along the Euphrates river where a battle is expected to begin soon to end ISIS control of the area. As ISIS no longer enjoys US protection, the end of its occupation of a part of Syrian territory is near.

During negotiations with Russia, Turkey argued that the US might not allow the Syrian forces to move in. Turkey claimed that any changes to the deal established between Trump and Erdogan might alter the US decision to withdraw. Damascus and Tehran are indeed eager to see US troops gone from Syria, but not to deliver the area to Turkey. Russia supported Damascus on this position.

Ankara was indeed afraid that its unilateral decision to move into the Kurdish controlled area might trigger Russian intervention against its proxies (Euphrates Sheild, Jaish al-Islam, al-Hamza brigade, Ahrar al-Sharqiya and others), and might also lead Iranians to arm the Kurds and the Arab tribes in the province to prevent any further annexation of Syrian territory. The Turkish forces and their proxies currently occupying Jarablus, al-Bab, Afrin and Idlib, are unwilling to engage in a doomed war against the Syrian army, supported by Russia and Iran.

Turkey seems willing to accommodate Russia and Iran – the Turkish army and its Syrian proxies will never be able to cross the 500 kilometers from Manbij to Deir-ezzour where the richest area of oil and gas is. This area is only tens of kilometers distant from the closest Syrian Army position on the other side of the Euphrates river.

Russia asked Damascus and Tehran to lay down a strategy and coordinate with the Russian military to put forward a plan of action and a road map after US withdrawal, with the first priority of eliminating ISIS and avoiding any clash with Turkey if possible. The situation was very sensitive and complicated between these allies. With the return of Manbij, the situation seems to favor Syrian unity, marking the end of its partition or of any possible buffer zone.

#Iraq NSA Faleh al-Fayyad met with #Syria president Bashar al-Assad & delivered a message from PM Adel Abdel Mahdi regarding the readiness of Iraq to cooperate with Syria on defeating #ISIS – as the #US protection to the group is lifted – and the reopening of al-Tanf crossing. pic.twitter.com/pdXXfEvHll

— Elijah J. Magnier (@ejmalrai) December 29, 2018

Tehran believes the US won’t permanently leave the Levant and Mesopotamia without leaving unrest behind. This gives its officials an additional motivation to lobby the Iraqi parliament for a US withdrawal from Iraq.

There is no doubt that Iraq is a close ally of Iran and not a fanatic supporter of the US. The Iraqi parliament can exert pressure over the government of Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi to ask President Trump to pull out US troops before the end of his mandate in 2020.

The US establishment and the “Axis of the Resistance” can both connive and plan, but the last word will belong to the people of Iraq and to those who reject US hegemony in the Middle East, those who can accept losses and nurse their wounds in hopes of a better future.

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here&#8217;s why all us troopw could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [170] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops xould be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [171] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops vould be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [172] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops fould be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [173] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops dould be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [174] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops ciuld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [175] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops ckuld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [176] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops cluld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [177] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops cpuld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [178] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops c0uld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [179] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops c9uld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [180] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coyld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [181] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops cohld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [182] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops cojld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [183] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coild be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [184] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops co8ld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [185] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops co7ld be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [186] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coukd be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [187] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coupd be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [188] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops couod be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [189] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops couls be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [190] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coulx be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [191] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coulc be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [192] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coulf be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [193] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coulr be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [194] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops coule be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [195] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could ve out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [196] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could ne out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [197] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could he out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [198] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could ge out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [199] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could bw out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [200] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could bs out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [201] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could bd out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [202] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could br out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [203] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could b4 out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [204] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could b3 out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [205] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be iut by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [206] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be kut by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [207] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be lut by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [208] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be put by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [209] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be 0ut by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [210] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be 9ut by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [211] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be oyt by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [212] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be oht by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [213] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be ojt by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [214] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be oit by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [215] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be o8t by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [216] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be o7t by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [217] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be our by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [218] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be ouf by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [219] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be oug by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [220] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be ouy by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [221] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be ou6 by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [222] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be ou5 by end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [223] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out vy end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [224] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out ny end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [225] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out hy end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [226] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out gy end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [227] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out bt end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [228] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out bg end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [229] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out bh end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [230] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out bu end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [231] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out b7 end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [232] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out b6 end of trump&#8217;s 1st term [233] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by wnd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [234] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by snd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [235] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by dnd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [236] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by rnd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [237] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by 4nd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [238] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by 3nd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [239] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by ebd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [240] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by emd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [241] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by ejd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [242] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by ehd of trump&#8217;s 1st term [243] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by ens of trump&#8217;s 1st term [244] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by enx of trump&#8217;s 1st term [245] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by enc of trump&#8217;s 1st term [246] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by enf of trump&#8217;s 1st term [247] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by enr of trump&#8217;s 1st term [248] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by ene of trump&#8217;s 1st term [249] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end if trump&#8217;s 1st term [250] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end kf trump&#8217;s 1st term [251] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end lf trump&#8217;s 1st term [252] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end pf trump&#8217;s 1st term [253] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end 0f trump&#8217;s 1st term [254] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end 9f trump&#8217;s 1st term [255] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end od trump&#8217;s 1st term [256] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end oc trump&#8217;s 1st term [257] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end ov trump&#8217;s 1st term [258] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end og trump&#8217;s 1st term [259] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end ot trump&#8217;s 1st term [260] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end or trump&#8217;s 1st term [261] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of rrump&#8217;s 1st term [262] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of frump&#8217;s 1st term [263] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of grump&#8217;s 1st term [264] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of yrump&#8217;s 1st term [265] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of 6rump&#8217;s 1st term [266] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of 5rump&#8217;s 1st term [267] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of teump&#8217;s 1st term [268] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of tdump&#8217;s 1st term [269] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of tfump&#8217;s 1st term [270] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of ttump&#8217;s 1st term [271] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of t5ump&#8217;s 1st term [272] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of t4ump&#8217;s 1st term [273] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trymp&#8217;s 1st term [274] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trhmp&#8217;s 1st term [275] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trjmp&#8217;s 1st term [276] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trimp&#8217;s 1st term [277] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of tr8mp&#8217;s 1st term [278] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of tr7mp&#8217;s 1st term [279] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trunp&#8217;s 1st term [280] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trukp&#8217;s 1st term [281] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trujp&#8217;s 1st term [282] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trumo&#8217;s 1st term [283] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of truml&#8217;s 1st term [284] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trum-&#8217;s 1st term [285] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trum0&#8217;s 1st term [286] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#7217;s 1st term [287] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#u217;s 1st term [288] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#i217;s 1st term [289] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#9217;s 1st term [290] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8117;s 1st term [291] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8q17;s 1st term [292] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8w17;s 1st term [293] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8317;s 1st term [294] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8227;s 1st term [295] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#82q7;s 1st term [296] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8216;s 1st term [297] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#821y;s 1st term [298] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#821u;s 1st term [299] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8218;s 1st term [300] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;a 1st term [301] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;z 1st term [302] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;x 1st term [303] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;d 1st term [304] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;e 1st term [305] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;w 1st term [306] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 2st term [307] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s qst term [308] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1at term [309] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1zt term [310] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1xt term [311] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1dt term [312] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1et term [313] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1wt term [314] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1sr term [315] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1sf term [316] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1sg term [317] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1sy term [318] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1s6 term [319] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1s5 term [320] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st rerm [321] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st ferm [322] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st germ [323] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st yerm [324] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st 6erm [325] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st 5erm [326] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st twrm [327] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st tsrm [328] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st tdrm [329] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st trrm [330] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st t4rm [331] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st t3rm [332] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st teem [333] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st tedm [334] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st tefm [335] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st tetm [336] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st te5m [337] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st te4m [338] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st tern [339] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st terk [340] => iraq is next: here&#8217;s why all us troops could be out by end of trump&#8217;s 1st terj ) </h1> </body>