It’s Not Brexit But ‘Deutsche-it’ You Want To Worry About

Via Golem XIV’s blog,

While everyone is endlessly told about the world-ending dangers of Brexit, I wonder if we should be paying a little more attention to Deutsche-it. If the UK leaves the EU the EU will survive. But what happens when – and surely it’s no longer if – but when Deutsche, Germany’s biggest and only truly global bank has to be rescued? What will the fallout from that be?

I am sure the German authorities will claim its not a rescue its a merger. Yeah right! It’s a rescue. Deutsche’s shares have fallen 48% in just the last 12 months – the same time the management said they were going to have the bank turned around. The bank’s shares are now worth no more than they were nearly 40 years ago. Which is not such good news.

But there’s worse. While, and perhaps in part because(?) Deutsche’s share price has been in free-fall, Deutsche has been money laundering around the world. That corruption is now beginning to catch up with the bottom line that it had been pumping cash into for so long. Deutsche is being investigated after the Panama papers revealed its roll in industrial scale tax avoidance and money laundering. No sooner had the ink dried on that headline when the revelations about Deutsche’s central role in laundering money through Danske bank drew yet more investigators to its HQ like flies to a fresh and steaming turd.

Now don’t get me wrong I’m not saying this makes Deutsche special among big banks except in the category of being caught. There, they have certainly wrestled the crown from Citi and Wachovia.

What I am saying is that that much laundering in that many localities is going to mean the usual bankers defence of ‘one bad apple’, ‘one corrupt employee’, ‘one weakness in our otherwise impeccable rules which are now being updated etc etc’ is not going to wash (sorry I couldn’t resist) so easily. Deutsche is a dirty bank. But does this mean Deutsche could be brought up on corporate criminal charges? Not a chance. To do that could mean it would lose its banking license and that would be Deutsche-it. And Deutche-it would be far more dangerous to the EU as a whole than Brexit. Deutsche is a filthy, systemically dirty bank but a bank which the German state is going to save. Using tax payers money. But how?

Of course every nation has such a bank, we certainly do here in the UK. But it is full of irony that the self-proclaimed capital of fiscal prudence is going to be intervening to save its flag-carrying bank and not just save it but do so in a way that makes a mockery of all the fine words about lessening systemic risk and tackling the problem of Too Big To Fail Banks. Surely we all now have to admit that all that fine talk was just so much political smoke blown up our collective rear ends?

By merging Deutsche with Commerzbank, which is itself one of the global Banking-Dead, being still part owned by the German tax payer – much like our own moaning, shuffling, dribbling RBS, the German ‘regulator’ will be creating an even larger corpse. Of course old habits are hard to kick and the German answer to every failing bank it has ever had, has been to merge it with another. They did it way back in the 90’s when they created HVB from two failing Bavarian banks and again with Hypo and Depfa just before the crash. It never works for them but they keep on trying. To be fair, so does every other financial regulator in every other country. Maybe they are all related?

Anyway, it will surely happen and what it will create does make political if not economic sense. At the moment Deutsche is a G-SIFI, A Global – Systemically Important Financial Institution. Every self respecting nation wants to have one. Deutsche is Germany’s. The other, unofficial name for G-SIFI’s is TBTF. Except, and here’s the rub, there is and always has been little gap between those two concepts, that has niggled away at bankers and their political friends all these long years of the wonderful recovery we have been having.

And that gap is that being a G-SIFI, being on the official G-SIFI list, actually, legally means you can fail but are so important you have to fail in a special way. You have to have a special ‘Last Will and Testament’ in case of your untimely demise. It means there are special rules you are bound by concerning your capital holdings and how you are supposedly going to be – should you fail – wound up in a special way that protects the rest of us from your implosion. It doesn’t mean you are Too Big To Fail.

The idea was that our wonderful and prudent rulers and regulators would create new rules to prevent banks failing (which sounds a little like TBTF, but isn’t) because IF they did fail then they would be wound up in a way that protected the rest of us. The problem is that’s not what the bankers want at all and certainly not what the countries who house those banks want. What nation wants its largest bank to fail, ever? What would happen to Italy if UniCredit imploded? What would happen to Spain if Santander died? Or the UK is HSBC was ever really caught out like Deutsche has been?

The answer is no one knows and no one is prepared to find out. The G-SIFI bank wind-up rules are there because in the teeth of the political fall-out from the bank crisis our rulers had to be seen to do something. But no G-SIFI bank and no nation housing one is every really going to allow a G-SIFI to go down. ‘G-SIFI’ is what we have officially but unofficially what the world of finance is sticking to is TBTF. Just, Too Big to Ever, Ever be allowed to Fail …no matter what. The question is how to be TBTF while officially merely being G-SIFI? And the answer, straightforwardly I suppose, is to make G-SIFI’s bigger. So big that failing really isn’t a viable survivable event – at least not politically. Which means merge Deutsche with Commerzbank, either of which could just conceivably be wound up, and create something so sprawlingly immense that it just is TBTF.

That makes sense doesn’t it? Could Germany ever allow Deutsche and Commerzbank to fail at the same time? No, of course not.

Personally I don’t think the German state was ever going to allow Deutsche to go down. The flag carrying bank is a very different animal to the flag carrying airline. One can go the other can’t. Combining Deutsche with Commerzbank closes that risky gap between being systemically important and being truly too big to fail.

Brexit can conceivably happen – though if it does and a general election returns a Corbyn government afterwards, then I think we will see engineered ‘regime change’ of the kind that we are used to allowing our rulers to impose upon Ukrainians, Iraqis, Libyans and Syrians, being imported into the heart of the Industrial North. Brexit and then Regime Change in the UK? Yes. But Deutsche-it? No, not a possibility.

If I’m right then expect other nations to follow suit and when the next crisis hits we’ll see the creation of the truly TBTF mega banks.

It’s Not Brexit But ‘Deutsche-it’ You Want To Worry About <body> <h1> Array ( [0] => ut&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [1] => jt&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [2] => kt&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [3] => ot&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [4] => 9t&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [5] => 8t&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [6] => ir&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [7] => if&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [8] => ig&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [9] => iy&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [10] => i6&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry about [11] => i5&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; 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you want to worry about [168] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-i6&#8217; you want to worry about [169] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-i5&#8217; you want to worry about [170] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#7217; you want to worry about [171] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#u217; you want to worry about [172] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#i217; you want to worry about [173] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#9217; you want to worry about [174] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8117; you want to worry about [175] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8q17; you want to worry about [176] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8w17; you want to worry about [177] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8317; you want to worry about [178] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8227; you want to worry about [179] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#82q7; you want to worry about [180] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8216; you want to worry about [181] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#821y; you want to worry about [182] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#821u; you want to worry about [183] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8218; you want to worry about [184] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; tou want to worry about [185] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; gou want to worry about [186] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; hou want to worry about [187] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; uou want to worry about [188] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; 7ou want to worry about [189] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; 6ou want to worry about [190] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yiu want to worry about [191] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yku want to worry about [192] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; ylu want to worry about [193] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; ypu want to worry about [194] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; y0u want to worry about [195] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; y9u want to worry about [196] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yoy want to worry about [197] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yoh want to worry about [198] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yoj want to worry about [199] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yoi want to worry about [200] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yo8 want to worry about [201] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; yo7 want to worry about [202] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you qant to worry about [203] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you aant to worry about [204] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you sant to worry about [205] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you eant to worry about [206] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you 3ant to worry about [207] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you 2ant to worry about [208] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wznt to worry about [209] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wsnt to worry about [210] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wwnt to worry about [211] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wqnt to worry about [212] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wabt to worry about [213] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wamt to worry about [214] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wajt to worry about [215] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you waht to worry about [216] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wanr to worry about [217] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wanf to worry about [218] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wang to worry about [219] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wany to worry about [220] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wan6 to worry about [221] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you wan5 to worry about [222] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want ro worry about [223] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want fo worry about [224] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want go worry about [225] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want yo worry about [226] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want 6o worry about [227] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want 5o worry about [228] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want ti worry about [229] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want tk worry about [230] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want tl worry about [231] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want tp worry about [232] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want t0 worry about [233] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want t9 worry about [234] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to qorry about [235] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to aorry about [236] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to sorry about [237] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to eorry about [238] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to 3orry about [239] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to 2orry about [240] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wirry about [241] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wkrry about [242] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wlrry about [243] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wprry about [244] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to w0rry about [245] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to w9rry about [246] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to woery about [247] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wodry about [248] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wofry about [249] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wotry about [250] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wo5ry about [251] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wo4ry about [252] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worey about [253] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wordy about [254] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worfy about [255] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worty about [256] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wor5y about [257] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to wor4y about [258] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worrt about [259] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worrg about [260] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worrh about [261] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worru about [262] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worr7 about [263] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worr6 about [264] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry zbout [265] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry sbout [266] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry wbout [267] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry qbout [268] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry avout [269] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry anout [270] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry ahout [271] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry agout [272] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abiut [273] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abkut [274] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry ablut [275] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abput [276] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry ab0ut [277] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry ab9ut [278] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry aboyt [279] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry aboht [280] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abojt [281] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry aboit [282] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abo8t [283] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abo7t [284] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abour [285] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abouf [286] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry aboug [287] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abouy [288] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abou6 [289] => it&#8217;s not brexit but &#8216;deutsche-it&#8217; you want to worry abou5 ) </h1> </body>