Mr. Diversification Is Back After A Long Hiatus – Bringing Gifts This Holiday Season

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

We are quite sure many of our readers are eager to turn the calendar and be done with 2018’s turbulent and unforgiving markets. After all, US stocks have gyrated wildly for the entire year, foreign stocks have gotten absolutely no love, and traditional diversifiers like bonds and gold just added to one’s troubles for most of the year. Indeed, as stocks sold off in February and then again in March, bonds and gold sold off too in an almost conspiratorial way that left a balanced portfolio down just as much, if not more, than an all equity portfolio. It’s a year that has challenged the historical track record of diversification and surely has given asset allocators many a sleepless night. But, just as many had probably written off 2018 as a year in which achieving diversification was impossible, back came Mr. Diversification, just in time for the holidays. In the holiday spirit, we are sure we aren’t alone in giving thanks for Mr. Diversification’s timely return.

Mr. Diversification’s Hiatus

The chart below shows the performance of a wide array of major asset classes from January through October, which happened to be a time when running a diversified portfolio, simply stated, did not work well. Over those first ten months of the year, only US large cap stocks were up on the year, and by a rather meager 1.4%. US small caps were down 1.5%, foreign stocks were down 13%, government bonds were down a whopping 12% and gold was down 7%. Even within the US market, it was a FAANG show and not much else.

Mr. Diversification Comes Home for the Holidays

But by the time the holiday season arrived, back came the benefits of running a diversified portfolio, and right on time. Since November as of 12/20, US large cap stocks are down 9%, small caps are down 12%, foreign stocks are down just 4%, bonds are up 7% and gold is up 4%. That is, foreign stocks have outperformed US large caps by 5%, bonds have outperformed by 16% and gold has 0utperformed by 13%. That is what diversification should look like, where some assets are down, others are down much less, and still others are significantly positive. Welcome home Mr. Diversification!

Is Diversification Here to Stay?

In order to understand whether diversification is home for good or just visiting, it’s important to understand why diversification left in the first place. During the bear market recovery in early 2016 and subsequently through most of 2018, the market’s expectations for inflation were rising sharply. Breakeven inflation expectations as derived from the treasury market rose a full 1%. By early to mid-2018 inflation expectations had risen so far and fast that many market participants were simply throwing in the towel on long-term bonds. They expected inflation expectations to continue rising from 2.25% to 2.5% and beyond, which would have caused the value of long-term bonds to fall precipitously. Instead, reality struck and inflation expectations reverted back to the range that has prevailed over the last five years. Of course, the Fed’s threatening campaign, the rising US dollar and the break down in oil prices all caused the market to reprice future inflation.

Even still, there looms an even bigger force that will tend to put a lid on yields and inflation and put a bid under precious metals: the extraordinary level of economy-wide debt in the United States. When debt levels are as elevated as they are, it doesn’t take much to turn an inflationary boom scenario (that which prevailed into October) into a deflationary bust scenario (that which is unfolding). All it takes is for bond yields to rise a bit too high, thereby putting immense pressure on the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy. In the chart below, we illustrate the sum of total government debt, state debt, household debt and corporate debt as a percentage of GDP. While down from peak levels, economy wide debt still stands at 5.33x nominal GDP, more than twice the level which prevailed from 1950-1980.

This paradigm in general will require the Fed to run looser monetary policy (lower rates and larger balance sheet) for an extended period of time, which generally will cap yields and support precious metals (the insurance against a policy error). So, after Mr. Diversification’s brief hiatus, it does appear that he may be here to stay after all.

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bringjng gifts this holiday season [249] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringkng gifts this holiday season [250] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringong gifts this holiday season [251] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bring9ng gifts this holiday season [252] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bring8ng gifts this holiday season [253] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringibg gifts this holiday season [254] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringimg gifts this holiday season [255] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringijg gifts this holiday season [256] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringihg gifts this holiday season [257] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringinf gifts this holiday season [258] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; 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bringing tifts this holiday season [269] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gufts this holiday season [270] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gjfts this holiday season [271] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gkfts this holiday season [272] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gofts this holiday season [273] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing g9fts this holiday season [274] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing g8fts this holiday season [275] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gidts this holiday season [276] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gicts this holiday season [277] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing givts this holiday season [278] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gigts this holiday season [279] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gitts this holiday season [280] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing girts this holiday season [281] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifrs this holiday season [282] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing giffs this holiday season [283] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifgs this holiday season [284] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifys this holiday season [285] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gif6s this holiday season [286] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gif5s this holiday season [287] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifta this holiday season [288] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing giftz this holiday season [289] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing giftx this holiday season [290] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing giftd this holiday season [291] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifte this holiday season [292] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing giftw this holiday season [293] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts rhis holiday season [294] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts fhis holiday season [295] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts ghis holiday season [296] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts yhis holiday season [297] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts 6his holiday season [298] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts 5his holiday season [299] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts tgis holiday season [300] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts tbis holiday season [301] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts tnis holiday season [302] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts tjis holiday season [303] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts tuis holiday season [304] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts tyis holiday season [305] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thus holiday season [306] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thjs holiday season [307] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thks holiday season [308] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thos holiday season [309] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts th9s holiday season [310] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts th8s holiday season [311] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thia holiday season [312] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thiz holiday season [313] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thix holiday season [314] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thid holiday season [315] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thie holiday season [316] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts thiw holiday season [317] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this goliday season [318] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this boliday season [319] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this noliday season [320] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this joliday season [321] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this uoliday season [322] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this yoliday season [323] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hiliday season [324] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hkliday season [325] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hlliday season [326] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hpliday season [327] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this h0liday season [328] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this h9liday season [329] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hokiday season [330] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hopiday season [331] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hooiday season [332] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holuday season [333] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holjday season [334] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holkday season [335] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holoday season [336] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hol9day season [337] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this hol8day season [338] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holisay season [339] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holixay season [340] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holicay season [341] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holifay season [342] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiray season [343] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holieay season [344] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidzy season [345] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidsy season [346] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidwy season [347] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidqy season [348] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidat season [349] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidag season [350] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidah season [351] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holidau season [352] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holida7 season [353] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holida6 season [354] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday aeason [355] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday zeason [356] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday xeason [357] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday deason [358] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday eeason [359] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday weason [360] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday swason [361] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday ssason [362] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday sdason [363] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday srason [364] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday s4ason [365] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday s3ason [366] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday sezson [367] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday sesson [368] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday sewson [369] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seqson [370] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seaaon [371] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seazon [372] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seaxon [373] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seadon [374] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seaeon [375] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seawon [376] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seasin [377] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seaskn [378] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seasln [379] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seaspn [380] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seas0n [381] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seas9n [382] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seasob [383] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seasom [384] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seasoj [385] => mr. diversification is back after a long hiatus &#8211; bringing gifts this holiday seasoh ) </h1> </body>