Recession Signal Getting Louder: 5-Year Yield Inverts With 3-Month Yield

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion.

The yield curve recession signal is louder and louder. Inversions are persistent and growing.

Let’s compare the spreads today to that of December 18, the start of the December 2018 FOMC meeting.

Yield Curve 2019-02-26 vs December and October 2018

Yield Curve Spread Analysis

Spread Changes

  • Yellow: Spreads Collapsed Since October (1 Month to 5 Years)

  • Pink: Spreads Remained Roughly the Same (7 Year)

  • Blue: Spreads Increased (30-Year and 10-Year)

Something Happening

Something is happening. What is it?

Possibilities

  1. The bond market is staring to worry about trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see

  2. The bond market has stagflation worries

  3. The bond bull market is over or approaching

My take is number one and possibly all three.

An in regards to recession the economy is weakening fast.

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inverts with 3-month yi4ld [317] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yi3ld [318] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yiekd [319] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yiepd [320] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yieod [321] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yiels [322] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yielx [323] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yielc [324] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yielf [325] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yielr [326] => recession signal getting louder: 5-year yield inverts with 3-month yiele ) </h1> </body>