Repo Rate Soars Most On Record As Yield Curve Goes Nuts In Year-End Liquidity Chaos

While markets were in a festive mood on New Year’s Eve, with the S&P enjoying a last second 15-point spike even as 10Y yields tumbled to the lowest level since January…

… something strange took place in both overnight funding markets and the Treasury market.

While it is well-known that dealers tend to “window dress” their books on the last day of the year by curtailing activity in financing markets to shore up balance sheets, what happened on Monday left quite a few mouths wide open: with the General Collateral rate trading around 2.50% on Friday, Monday saw a historic surge in overnight GC repo, that sent the rate surging by the most ever, spiking sharply to 6.125% on Monday morning, with the bid/ask trading 6.50%/5.75% just after 10am after opening Monday at 3.75%/4.00%, which was already nearly 1.50% higher than the Friday close (incidentally, the Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR) was set at 2.45%, the same as the Tri-party General Collateral Rate).

In fact, the closing print of 6.125% was the highest GC repo rate observed since January 2001, and just under 400 bps higher than the Fed funds rate.

“The cash never came in,” said Scott Skyrm, EVP at Curvature Securities, noting that “funding pressure should be about 50 basis points. This was 350 basis points.”

Indeed, confirming the need for cash, on the last day of 2018, 17 counterparties took only $41.8BN at the Fed’s overnight reverse repo operation on Monday, up from $3.21b on Friday, which was the second-smallest quarter-end usage since the RRP was created in 2013, and suggesting that instead of padding books with cash-equivalent securities to satisfy regulatory requirements, banks were suddenly strapped for cold, hard cash.

Clearly there was something amiss with year end liquidity: while there have been year end spikes in the repo rate all prior years, not once in the past decade was the surge as high as it was this time, prompting questions if there were broader year-end liquidity plumbing issues in the market than just traditional window dressing.

Meanwhile, in yet another bizarre manifestation of year-end liquidity events, on Monday shortly after a 52-week Bill auction priced amid unremarkable results, the short-end of the curve inverted dramatically, with the yield on the 1Y finding itself more than 10bps higher than the 2Y.

In fact, the yield on the 52-week Bill closed Friday at 2.5986%, higher than the yield on the 7Y TSY which was at 2.5869%, meaning the 1s7s was inverted.

The last time the 1s7s curve inverted? You guessed it – the same time the overnight repo rate surged as much as it did on Monday – back in early 2001.

One reason cited for the bizarre shape of the yield curve was the bond market’s confusion about what the Fed will do, with the short-end still anticipating perhaps one or more rate hikes, while the longer-end increasingly pricing in deflation, rate cuts and, eventually, QE, although since both of those expectations are what makes up the shape of the yield curve by definition, that explanation was left wanting.

As for the record spike in repo, rates traders were left scratching heads, with Curvature’s Skyrm warning that market participants may have to start pricing in the fact that if repo rates “spike up a bit, they could go much higher.”

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in year-end liquidity chaos [21] => rep9 rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [22] => repo eate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [23] => repo date soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [24] => repo fate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [25] => repo tate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [26] => repo 5ate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [27] => repo 4ate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [28] => repo rzte soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [29] => repo rste soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [30] => repo rwte soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [31] => repo rqte soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [32] => repo rare soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [33] => repo rafe soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [34] => repo rage soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [35] => repo raye soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [36] => repo ra6e soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [37] => repo ra5e soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [38] => repo ratw soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [39] => repo rats soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [40] => repo ratd soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [41] => repo ratr soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [42] => repo rat4 soars most on 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spars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [54] => repo rate s0ars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [55] => repo rate s9ars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [56] => repo rate sozrs most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [57] => repo rate sosrs most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [58] => repo rate sowrs most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [59] => repo rate soqrs most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [60] => repo rate soaes most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [61] => repo rate soads most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [62] => repo rate soafs most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [63] => repo rate soats most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [64] 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goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [183] => repo rate soars most on record as yield c7rve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [184] => repo rate soars most on record as yield cueve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [185] => repo rate soars most on record as yield cudve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [186] => repo rate soars most on record as yield cufve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [187] => repo rate soars most on record as yield cutve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [188] => repo rate soars most on record as yield cu5ve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [189] => repo rate soars most on record as yield cu4ve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [190] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curce goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [191] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curbe goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [192] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curge goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [193] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curfe goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [194] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curvw goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [195] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curvs goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [196] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curvd goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [197] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curvr goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [198] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curv4 goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [199] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curv3 goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [200] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve foes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [201] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve voes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [202] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve boes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [203] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve hoes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [204] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve yoes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [205] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve toes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [206] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve gies nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [207] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve gkes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [208] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve gles nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [209] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve gpes nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [210] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve g0es nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [211] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve g9es nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [212] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve gows nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [213] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goss nuts in year-end liquidity chaos [214] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve gods nuts in year-end 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goes muts in year-end liquidity chaos [226] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes juts in year-end liquidity chaos [227] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes huts in year-end liquidity chaos [228] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nyts in year-end liquidity chaos [229] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nhts in year-end liquidity chaos [230] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes njts in year-end liquidity chaos [231] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nits in year-end liquidity chaos [232] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes n8ts in year-end liquidity chaos [233] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes n7ts in year-end liquidity chaos [234] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nurs in year-end liquidity chaos [235] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nufs in year-end liquidity chaos [236] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nugs in year-end liquidity chaos [237] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuys in year-end liquidity chaos [238] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nu6s in year-end liquidity chaos [239] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nu5s in year-end liquidity chaos [240] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuta in year-end liquidity chaos [241] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nutz in year-end liquidity chaos [242] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nutx in year-end liquidity chaos [243] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nutd in year-end liquidity chaos [244] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nute in year-end liquidity chaos [245] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nutw in year-end liquidity chaos [246] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts un year-end liquidity chaos [247] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts jn year-end liquidity chaos [248] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts kn year-end liquidity chaos [249] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts on year-end liquidity chaos [250] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts 9n year-end liquidity chaos [251] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts 8n year-end liquidity chaos [252] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts ib year-end liquidity chaos [253] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts im year-end liquidity chaos [254] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts ij year-end liquidity chaos [255] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts ih year-end liquidity chaos [256] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in tear-end liquidity chaos [257] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in gear-end 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goes nuts in yezr-end liquidity chaos [269] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yesr-end liquidity chaos [270] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yewr-end liquidity chaos [271] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yeqr-end liquidity chaos [272] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yeae-end liquidity chaos [273] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yead-end liquidity chaos [274] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yeaf-end liquidity chaos [275] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yeat-end liquidity chaos [276] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yea5-end liquidity chaos [277] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yea4-end liquidity chaos [278] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year0end liquidity chaos [279] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in yearpend liquidity chaos [280] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-wnd liquidity chaos [281] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-snd liquidity chaos [282] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-dnd liquidity chaos [283] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-rnd liquidity chaos [284] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-4nd liquidity chaos [285] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-3nd liquidity chaos [286] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-ebd liquidity chaos [287] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-emd liquidity chaos [288] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-ejd liquidity chaos [289] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-ehd liquidity chaos [290] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-ens liquidity chaos [291] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-enx liquidity chaos [292] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-enc liquidity chaos [293] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-enf liquidity chaos [294] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-enr liquidity chaos [295] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-ene liquidity chaos [296] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end kiquidity chaos [297] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end piquidity chaos [298] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end oiquidity chaos [299] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end luquidity chaos [300] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end ljquidity chaos [301] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end lkquidity chaos [302] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end loquidity chaos [303] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end l9quidity chaos [304] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end l8quidity chaos [305] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end li1uidity chaos [306] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end li2uidity chaos [307] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liwuidity chaos [308] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liauidity chaos [309] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqyidity chaos [310] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqhidity chaos [311] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqjidity chaos [312] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqiidity chaos [313] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liq8idity chaos [314] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liq7idity chaos [315] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquudity chaos [316] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqujdity chaos [317] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqukdity chaos [318] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquodity chaos [319] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqu9dity chaos [320] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liqu8dity chaos [321] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquisity chaos [322] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquixity chaos [323] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquicity chaos [324] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquifity chaos [325] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquirity chaos [326] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquieity chaos [327] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquiduty chaos [328] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidjty chaos [329] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidkty chaos [330] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidoty chaos [331] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquid9ty chaos [332] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquid8ty chaos [333] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidiry chaos [334] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidify chaos [335] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidigy chaos [336] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidiyy chaos [337] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidi6y chaos [338] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidi5y chaos [339] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquiditt chaos [340] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquiditg chaos [341] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidith chaos [342] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquiditu chaos [343] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidit7 chaos [344] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidit6 chaos [345] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity xhaos [346] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity vhaos [347] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity fhaos [348] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity dhaos [349] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cgaos [350] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cbaos [351] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cnaos [352] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cjaos [353] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cuaos [354] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cyaos [355] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chzos [356] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chsos [357] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chwos [358] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chqos [359] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chais [360] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaks [361] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chals [362] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaps [363] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cha0s [364] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity cha9s [365] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaoa [366] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaoz [367] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaox [368] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaod [369] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaoe [370] => repo rate soars most on record as yield curve goes nuts in year-end liquidity chaow ) </h1> </body>