Small Business Hiring Suggests We May See More Weak Employment Data

Authored by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

Last week we were presented with a fairly cold employment report with the number of job gains being lowest in 18 months and one of the lowest readings in the last decade. The problem is not necessarily the one weak employment report – which did come with at least some bright spots including a lower overall unemployment rate – but the fact that the data has been unquestionably weak across a number of economic indicators from employment to manufacturing activity to durable goods orders (an indicator of capex intentions).

In this type of environment, it becomes harder and harder to give bad data a “pass” as a one off statistic. This is especially true when we start to see weak data points being confirmed by more forward looking data, and that is exactly what we saw today in the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey.

Specifically, it was the small business hiring plans component that caught our attention. It came in at the lowest level in about a year and was a continuation of the sharp drop seen in the January report.

This is important because the one year change in the NFIB hiring plans indicator tends to lead year over year changes in both the unemployment rate and initial claims by about four months.

In other words, the fact that small businesses are signaling a slowdown in hiring suggests we may be in for more weak employment reports in the months ahead, a prospect neither stocks nor bonds are discounting at the moment.

Small Business Hiring Suggests We May See More Weak Employment Data <body> <h1> Array ( [0] => amall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [1] => zmall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [2] => xmall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [3] => dmall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [4] => emall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [5] => wmall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [6] => snall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [7] => skall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [8] => sjall business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [9] => smzll business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [10] => smsll business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [11] => smwll business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [12] => smqll business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [13] => smakl business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [14] => smapl business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [15] => smaol business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [16] => smalk business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [17] => smalp business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [18] => smalo business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [19] => small vusiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [20] => small nusiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [21] => small husiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [22] => small gusiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [23] => small bysiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [24] => small bhsiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [25] => small bjsiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [26] => small bisiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [27] => small b8siness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [28] => small b7siness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [29] => small buainess hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [30] => small buziness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [31] => small buxiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [32] => small budiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [33] => small bueiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [34] => small buwiness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [35] => small busuness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [36] => small busjness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [37] => small buskness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [38] => small busoness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [39] => small bus9ness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [40] => small bus8ness hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [41] => small busibess hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [42] => small busimess hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [43] => small busijess hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [44] => small busihess hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [45] => small businwss hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [46] => small businsss hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [47] => small busindss hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [48] => small businrss hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [49] => small busin4ss hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [50] => small busin3ss hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [51] => small busineas hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [52] => small businezs hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [53] => small businexs hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [54] => small busineds hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [55] => small businees hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [56] => small businews hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [57] => small businesa hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [58] => small businesz hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [59] => small businesx hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [60] => small businesd hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [61] => small businese hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [62] => small businesw hiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [63] => small business giring suggests we may see more weak employment data [64] => small business biring suggests we may see more weak employment data [65] => small business niring suggests we may see more weak employment data [66] => small business jiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [67] => small business uiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [68] => small business yiring suggests we may see more weak employment data [69] => small business huring suggests we may see more weak employment data [70] => small business hjring suggests we may see more weak employment data [71] => small business hkring suggests we may see more weak employment data [72] => small business horing suggests we may see more weak employment data [73] => small business h9ring suggests we may see more weak employment data [74] => small business h8ring suggests we may see more weak employment data [75] => small business hieing suggests we may see more weak employment data [76] => small business hiding suggests we may see more weak employment data [77] => small business hifing suggests we may see more weak employment data [78] => small business hiting suggests we may see more weak employment data [79] => small business hi5ing suggests we may see more weak employment data [80] => small business hi4ing suggests we may see more weak employment data [81] => small business hirung suggests we may see more weak employment data [82] => small business hirjng suggests we may see more weak employment data [83] => small business hirkng suggests we may see more weak employment data [84] => small business hirong suggests we may see more weak employment data [85] => small business hir9ng suggests we may see more weak employment data [86] => small business hir8ng suggests we may see more weak employment data [87] => small business hiribg suggests we may see more weak employment data [88] => small business hirimg suggests we may see more weak employment data [89] => small business hirijg suggests we may see more weak employment data [90] => small business hirihg suggests we may see more weak employment data [91] => small business hirinf suggests we may see more weak employment data [92] => small business hirinv suggests we may see more weak employment data [93] => small business hirinb suggests we may see more weak employment data [94] => small business hirinh suggests we may see more weak employment data [95] => small business hiriny suggests we may see more weak employment data [96] => small business hirint suggests we may see more weak employment data [97] => small business hiring auggests we may see more weak employment data [98] => small business hiring zuggests we may see more weak employment data [99] => small business hiring xuggests we may see more weak employment data [100] => small business hiring duggests we may see more weak employment data [101] => small business hiring euggests we may see more weak employment data [102] => small business hiring wuggests we may see more weak employment data [103] => small business hiring syggests we may see more weak employment data [104] => small business hiring shggests we may see more weak employment data [105] => small business hiring sjggests we may see more weak employment data [106] => small business hiring siggests we may see more weak employment data [107] => small business hiring s8ggests we may see more weak employment data [108] => small business hiring s7ggests we may see more weak employment data [109] => small business hiring sufgests we may see more weak employment data [110] => small business hiring suvgests we may see more weak employment data [111] => small business hiring subgests we may see more weak employment data [112] => small business hiring suhgests we may see more weak employment data [113] => small business hiring suygests we may see more weak employment data [114] => small business hiring sutgests we may see more weak employment data [115] => small business hiring sugfests we may see more weak employment data [116] => small business hiring sugvests we may see more weak employment data [117] => small business hiring sugbests we may see more weak employment data [118] => small business hiring sughests we may see more weak employment data [119] => small business hiring sugyests we may see more weak employment data [120] => small business hiring sugtests we may see more weak employment data [121] => small business hiring suggwsts we may see more weak employment data [122] => small business hiring suggssts we may see more weak employment data [123] => small business hiring suggdsts we may see more weak employment data [124] => small business hiring suggrsts we may see more weak employment data [125] => small business hiring sugg4sts we may see more weak employment data [126] => small business hiring sugg3sts we may see more weak employment data [127] => small business hiring suggeats we may see more weak employment data [128] => small business hiring suggezts we may see more weak employment data [129] => small business hiring suggexts we may see more weak employment data [130] => small business hiring suggedts we may see more weak employment data [131] => small business hiring suggeets we may see more weak employment data [132] => small business hiring suggewts we may see more weak employment data [133] => small business hiring suggesrs we may see more weak employment data [134] => small business hiring suggesfs we may see more weak employment data [135] => small business hiring suggesgs we may see more weak employment data [136] => small business hiring suggesys we may see more weak employment data [137] => small business hiring sugges6s we may see more weak employment data [138] => small business hiring sugges5s we may see more weak employment data [139] => small business hiring suggesta we may see more weak employment data [140] => small business hiring suggestz we may see more weak employment data [141] => small business hiring suggestx we may see more weak employment data [142] => small business hiring suggestd we may see more weak employment data [143] => small business hiring suggeste we may see more weak employment data [144] => small business hiring suggestw we may see more weak employment data [145] => small business hiring suggests qe may see more weak employment data [146] => small business hiring suggests ae may see more weak employment data [147] => small business hiring suggests se may see more weak employment data [148] => small business hiring suggests ee may see more weak employment data [149] => small business hiring suggests 3e may see more weak employment data [150] => small business hiring suggests 2e may see more weak employment data [151] => small business hiring suggests ww may see more weak employment data [152] => small business hiring suggests ws may see more weak employment data [153] => small business hiring suggests wd may see more weak employment data [154] => small business hiring suggests wr may see more weak employment data [155] => small business hiring suggests w4 may see more weak employment data [156] => small business hiring suggests w3 may see more weak employment data [157] => small business hiring suggests we nay see more weak employment data [158] => small business hiring suggests we kay see more weak employment data [159] => small business hiring suggests we jay see more weak employment data [160] => small business hiring suggests we mzy see more weak employment data [161] => small business hiring suggests we msy see more weak employment data [162] => small business hiring suggests we mwy see more weak employment data [163] => small business hiring suggests we mqy see more weak employment data [164] => small business hiring suggests we mat see more weak employment data [165] => small business hiring suggests we mag see more weak employment data [166] => small business hiring suggests we mah see more weak employment data [167] => small business hiring suggests we mau see more weak employment data [168] => small business hiring suggests we ma7 see more weak employment data [169] => small business hiring suggests we ma6 see more weak employment data [170] => small business hiring suggests we may aee more weak employment data [171] => small business hiring suggests we may zee more weak employment data [172] => small business hiring suggests we may xee more weak employment data [173] => small business hiring suggests we may dee more weak employment data [174] => small business hiring suggests we may eee more weak employment data [175] => small business hiring suggests we may wee more weak employment data [176] => small business hiring suggests we may swe more weak employment data [177] => small business hiring suggests we may sse more weak employment data [178] => small business hiring suggests we may sde more weak employment data [179] => small business hiring suggests we may sre more weak employment data [180] => small business hiring suggests we may s4e more weak employment data [181] => small business hiring suggests we may s3e more weak employment data [182] => small business hiring suggests we may sew more weak employment data [183] => small business hiring suggests we may ses more weak employment data [184] => small business hiring suggests we may sed more weak employment data [185] => small business hiring suggests we may ser more weak employment data [186] => small business hiring suggests we may se4 more weak employment data [187] => small business hiring suggests we may se3 more weak employment data [188] => small business hiring suggests we may see nore weak employment data [189] => small business hiring suggests we may see kore weak employment data [190] => small business hiring suggests we may see jore weak employment data [191] => small business hiring suggests we may see mire weak employment data [192] => small business hiring suggests we may see mkre weak employment data [193] => small business hiring suggests we may see mlre weak employment data [194] => small business hiring suggests we may see mpre weak employment data [195] => small business hiring suggests we may see m0re weak employment data [196] => small business hiring suggests we may see m9re weak employment data [197] => small business hiring suggests we may see moee weak employment data [198] => small business hiring suggests we may see mode weak employment data [199] => small business hiring suggests we may see mofe weak employment data [200] => small business hiring suggests we may see mote weak employment data [201] => small business hiring suggests we may see mo5e weak employment data [202] => small business hiring suggests we may see mo4e weak employment data [203] => small business hiring suggests we may see morw weak employment data [204] => small business hiring suggests we may see mors weak employment data [205] => small business hiring suggests we may see mord weak employment data [206] => small business hiring suggests we may see morr weak employment data [207] => small business hiring suggests we may see mor4 weak employment data [208] => small business hiring suggests we may see mor3 weak employment data [209] => small business hiring suggests we may see more qeak employment data [210] => small business hiring suggests we may see more aeak employment data [211] => small business hiring suggests we may see more seak employment data [212] => small business hiring suggests we may see more eeak employment data [213] => small business hiring suggests we may see more 3eak employment data [214] => small business hiring suggests we may see more 2eak employment data [215] => small business hiring suggests we may see more wwak employment data [216] => small business hiring suggests we may see more wsak employment data [217] => small business hiring suggests we may see more wdak employment data [218] => small business hiring suggests we may see more wrak employment data [219] => small business hiring suggests we may see more w4ak employment data [220] => small business hiring suggests we may see more w3ak employment data [221] => small business hiring suggests we may see more wezk employment data [222] => small business hiring suggests we may see more wesk employment data [223] => small business hiring suggests we may see more wewk employment data [224] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weqk employment data [225] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weaj employment data [226] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weam employment data [227] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weal employment data [228] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weao employment data [229] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weai employment data [230] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak wmployment data [231] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak smployment data [232] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak dmployment data [233] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak rmployment data [234] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak 4mployment data [235] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak 3mployment data [236] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak enployment data [237] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak ekployment data [238] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak ejployment data [239] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emoloyment data [240] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emlloyment data [241] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak em-loyment data [242] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak em0loyment data [243] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak empkoyment data [244] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emppoyment data [245] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak empooyment data [246] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak empliyment data [247] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emplkyment data [248] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak empllyment data [249] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emplpyment data [250] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak empl0yment data [251] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak empl9yment data [252] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emplotment data [253] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emplogment data [254] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emplohment data [255] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emploument data [256] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emplo7ment data [257] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak emplo6ment data [258] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employnent data [259] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employkent data [260] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employjent data [261] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmwnt data [262] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmsnt data [263] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmdnt data [264] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmrnt data [265] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employm4nt data [266] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employm3nt data [267] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmebt data [268] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmemt data [269] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmejt data [270] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmeht data [271] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmenr data [272] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmenf data [273] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmeng data [274] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmeny data [275] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmen6 data [276] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employmen5 data [277] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment sata [278] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment xata [279] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment cata [280] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment fata [281] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment rata [282] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment eata [283] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment dzta [284] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment dsta [285] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment dwta [286] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment dqta [287] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment dara [288] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment dafa [289] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment daga [290] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment daya [291] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment da6a [292] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment da5a [293] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment datz [294] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment dats [295] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment datw [296] => small business hiring suggests we may see more weak employment datq ) </h1> </body>