The “There Is No Recession In Sight” Chartbook

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Yesterday, Michael Lebowitz wrote an interesting piece discussing the “yield curve” and the message it is sending. To wit:

“Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Given the fact that an inversion of the 2s/10s Treasury yield curve has predicted every recession over the last forty years, it is no wonder that the topic grows in stature as the difference between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield approaches zero. Unfortunately, much of the discussion on the yield curve seems to over-emphasize whether or not the slope of the curve will invert. Waiting on this arbitrary event may cause investors to miss a very important recession signal.”

Mike is right. The problem is that when the yield curve INITIALLY inverts, or comes close to inverting, there won’t be a “recession” immediately noticeable in the data. This is because, as discussed previously, while the calls of a “recession” may seem far-fetched based on today’s economic data points, no one was calling for a recession in early 2000 or 2007 either. By the time the data is adjusted, and the eventual recession is revealed, it won’t matter as the damage will have already been done. As you notice in the chart above, the yield curve predicted each recession, but the yield curve was already rising sharply by the time the recession was officially announced.

But is there anything to fear currently?

Not according to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin:

“We see no indications whatsoever of a recession on the horizon. The administration’s efforts to cut taxes, slash regulations and overhaul trade deals have had a very strong impact on the U.S. economy.”

Since I am not the Treasury Secretary of the United States, who am I to argue. Therefore, I simply present some charts for you to consider with respect to whether a “recession cometh” or not.

(Some of the graphs below were shared with RIA Pro subscribers in the Chart of the Day section. For more information please visit us at RIA Pro. Use code PRO30 for a 30-day free trial.)

As David Rosenberg stated yesterday:

“I love to read the bloggers out there who say ‘a slowdown isn’t a recession.’ Someone should remind them of Newton’s laws of motion. A slowdown doesn’t morph into a recession when there is some exogenous postive shock that turns the tide. And when it isn’t about the Fed easing policy, then it is another Central Bank, like the ECB and BOJ in 2016.

Initial jobless claims are a leading economic indicator and have already risen enough to suggest that recession odds have gone from close to 0% a year ago to around 40% today. Not a base case, but the direction is not something the bulls should be crowing about.”

No recession in sight?

Maybe? But if you wait for someone to tell you the recession has started, it really won’t matter much anyway.

As my friend Doug Kass noted in his missive yesterday:

“It remains my view that the weight of slowing global economic growth, untenable debt levels, political turmoil and policy issues/concerns could ultimately produce much lower stock prices than are present today.”

The “There Is No Recession In Sight” Chartbook <body> <h1> Array ( [0] => rhe &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [1] => fhe &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [2] => ghe &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [3] => yhe &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [4] => 6he &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [5] => 5he &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [6] => tge &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [7] => tbe &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [8] => tne &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [9] => tje &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [10] => tue &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [11] => tye &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [12] => thw &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [13] => ths &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [14] => thd &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [15] => thr &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [16] => th4 &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [17] => th3 &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [18] => the &#7220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [19] => the &#u220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [20] => the &#i220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [21] => the &#9220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [22] => the &#8120;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [23] => the &#8q20;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [24] => the &#8w20;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [25] => the &#8320;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [26] => the &#8210;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [27] => the &#82q0;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [28] => the &#82w0;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [29] => the &#8230;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [30] => the &#8229;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [31] => the &#822o;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [32] => the &#822p;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [33] => the &#822-;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [34] => the &#8220;rhere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [35] => the &#8220;fhere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [36] => the &#8220;ghere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [37] => the &#8220;yhere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [38] => the &#8220;6here is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [39] => the &#8220;5here is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [40] => the &#8220;tgere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [41] => the &#8220;tbere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [42] => the &#8220;tnere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [43] => the &#8220;tjere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [44] => the &#8220;tuere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [45] => the &#8220;tyere is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [46] => the &#8220;thwre is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [47] => the &#8220;thsre is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [48] => the &#8220;thdre is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [49] => the &#8220;thrre is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [50] => the &#8220;th4re is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [51] => the &#8220;th3re is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [52] => the &#8220;theee is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [53] => the &#8220;thede is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [54] => the &#8220;thefe is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [55] => the &#8220;thete is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [56] => the &#8220;the5e is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [57] => the &#8220;the4e is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [58] => the &#8220;therw is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [59] => the &#8220;thers is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [60] => the &#8220;therd is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [61] => the &#8220;therr is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [62] => the &#8220;ther4 is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [63] => the &#8220;ther3 is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [64] => the &#8220;there us no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [65] => the &#8220;there js no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [66] => the &#8220;there ks no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [67] => the &#8220;there os no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [68] => the &#8220;there 9s no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [69] => the &#8220;there 8s no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [70] => the &#8220;there ia no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [71] => the &#8220;there iz no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [72] => the &#8220;there ix no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [73] => the &#8220;there id no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [74] => the &#8220;there ie no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [75] => the &#8220;there iw no recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [76] => the &#8220;there is bo recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [77] => the &#8220;there is mo recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [78] => the &#8220;there is jo recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [79] => the &#8220;there is ho recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [80] => the &#8220;there is ni recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [81] => the &#8220;there is nk recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [82] => the &#8220;there is nl recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [83] => the &#8220;there is np recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [84] => the &#8220;there is n0 recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [85] => the &#8220;there is n9 recession in sight&#8221; chartbook [86] => the &#8220;there is no eecession in sight&#8221; chartbook [87] => the &#8220;there is no decession in sight&#8221; chartbook [88] => the &#8220;there is no fecession in sight&#8221; chartbook [89] => the &#8220;there is no tecession in sight&#8221; chartbook [90] => the &#8220;there is no 5ecession in sight&#8221; chartbook [91] => the &#8220;there is no 4ecession in sight&#8221; chartbook [92] => the &#8220;there is no rwcession in sight&#8221; chartbook [93] => the &#8220;there is no rscession in sight&#8221; chartbook [94] => the &#8220;there is no rdcession in sight&#8221; chartbook [95] => the &#8220;there is no rrcession in sight&#8221; chartbook [96] => the &#8220;there is no r4cession in sight&#8221; chartbook [97] => the &#8220;there is no r3cession in sight&#8221; chartbook [98] => the &#8220;there is no rexession in sight&#8221; chartbook [99] => the &#8220;there is no revession in sight&#8221; chartbook [100] => the &#8220;there is no refession in sight&#8221; chartbook [101] => the &#8220;there is no redession in sight&#8221; chartbook [102] => the &#8220;there is no recwssion in sight&#8221; chartbook [103] => the &#8220;there is no recsssion in sight&#8221; chartbook [104] => the &#8220;there is no recdssion in sight&#8221; chartbook [105] => the &#8220;there is no recrssion in sight&#8221; chartbook [106] => the &#8220;there is no rec4ssion in sight&#8221; chartbook [107] => the &#8220;there is no rec3ssion in sight&#8221; chartbook [108] => the &#8220;there is no receasion in sight&#8221; chartbook [109] => the &#8220;there is no recezsion in sight&#8221; chartbook [110] => the &#8220;there is no recexsion in sight&#8221; chartbook [111] => the &#8220;there is no recedsion in sight&#8221; chartbook [112] => the &#8220;there is no receesion in sight&#8221; chartbook [113] => the &#8220;there is no recewsion in sight&#8221; chartbook [114] => the &#8220;there is no recesaion in sight&#8221; chartbook [115] => the &#8220;there is no receszion in sight&#8221; chartbook [116] => the &#8220;there is no recesxion in sight&#8221; chartbook [117] => the &#8220;there is no recesdion in sight&#8221; chartbook [118] => the &#8220;there is no receseion in sight&#8221; chartbook [119] => the &#8220;there is no receswion in sight&#8221; chartbook [120] => the &#8220;there is no recessuon in sight&#8221; chartbook [121] => the &#8220;there is no recessjon in sight&#8221; chartbook [122] => the &#8220;there is no recesskon in sight&#8221; chartbook [123] => the &#8220;there is no recessoon in sight&#8221; chartbook [124] => the &#8220;there is no recess9on in sight&#8221; chartbook [125] => the &#8220;there is no recess8on in sight&#8221; chartbook [126] => the &#8220;there is no recessiin in sight&#8221; chartbook [127] => the &#8220;there is no recessikn in sight&#8221; chartbook [128] => the &#8220;there is no recessiln in sight&#8221; chartbook [129] => the &#8220;there is no recessipn in sight&#8221; chartbook [130] => the &#8220;there is no recessi0n in sight&#8221; chartbook [131] => the &#8220;there is no recessi9n in sight&#8221; chartbook [132] => the &#8220;there is no recessiob in sight&#8221; chartbook [133] => the &#8220;there is no recessiom in sight&#8221; chartbook [134] => the &#8220;there is no recessioj in sight&#8221; chartbook [135] => the &#8220;there is no recessioh in sight&#8221; chartbook [136] => the &#8220;there is no recession un sight&#8221; chartbook [137] => the &#8220;there is no recession jn sight&#8221; chartbook [138] => the &#8220;there is no recession kn sight&#8221; chartbook [139] => the &#8220;there is no recession on sight&#8221; chartbook [140] => the &#8220;there is no recession 9n sight&#8221; chartbook [141] => the &#8220;there is no recession 8n sight&#8221; chartbook [142] => the &#8220;there is no recession ib sight&#8221; chartbook [143] => the &#8220;there is no recession im sight&#8221; chartbook [144] => the &#8220;there is no recession ij sight&#8221; chartbook [145] => the &#8220;there is no recession ih sight&#8221; chartbook [146] => the &#8220;there is no recession in aight&#8221; chartbook [147] => the &#8220;there is no recession in zight&#8221; chartbook [148] => the &#8220;there is no recession in xight&#8221; chartbook [149] => the &#8220;there is no recession in dight&#8221; chartbook [150] => the &#8220;there is no recession in eight&#8221; chartbook [151] => the &#8220;there is no recession in wight&#8221; chartbook [152] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sught&#8221; chartbook [153] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sjght&#8221; chartbook [154] => the &#8220;there is no recession in skght&#8221; chartbook [155] => the &#8220;there is no recession in soght&#8221; chartbook [156] => the &#8220;there is no recession in s9ght&#8221; chartbook [157] => the &#8220;there is no recession in s8ght&#8221; chartbook [158] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sifht&#8221; chartbook [159] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sivht&#8221; chartbook [160] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sibht&#8221; chartbook [161] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sihht&#8221; chartbook [162] => the &#8220;there is no recession in siyht&#8221; chartbook [163] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sitht&#8221; chartbook [164] => the &#8220;there is no recession in siggt&#8221; chartbook [165] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sigbt&#8221; chartbook [166] => the &#8220;there is no recession in signt&#8221; chartbook [167] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sigjt&#8221; chartbook [168] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sigut&#8221; chartbook [169] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sigyt&#8221; chartbook [170] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sighr&#8221; chartbook [171] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sighf&#8221; chartbook [172] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sighg&#8221; chartbook [173] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sighy&#8221; chartbook [174] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sigh6&#8221; chartbook [175] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sigh5&#8221; chartbook [176] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#7221; chartbook [177] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#u221; chartbook [178] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#i221; chartbook [179] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#9221; chartbook [180] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8121; chartbook [181] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8q21; chartbook [182] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8w21; chartbook [183] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8321; chartbook [184] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8211; chartbook [185] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#82q1; chartbook [186] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#82w1; chartbook [187] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8231; chartbook [188] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8222; chartbook [189] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#822q; chartbook [190] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; xhartbook [191] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; vhartbook [192] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; fhartbook [193] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; dhartbook [194] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cgartbook [195] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cbartbook [196] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cnartbook [197] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cjartbook [198] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cuartbook [199] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cyartbook [200] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chzrtbook [201] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chsrtbook [202] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chwrtbook [203] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chqrtbook [204] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chaetbook [205] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chadtbook [206] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chaftbook [207] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chattbook [208] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cha5tbook [209] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; cha4tbook [210] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; charrbook [211] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; charfbook [212] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chargbook [213] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; charybook [214] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; char6book [215] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; char5book [216] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartvook [217] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartnook [218] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; charthook [219] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartgook [220] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbiok [221] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbkok [222] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartblok [223] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbpok [224] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartb0ok [225] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartb9ok [226] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartboik [227] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbokk [228] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbolk [229] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbopk [230] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbo0k [231] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbo9k [232] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbooj [233] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartboom [234] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbool [235] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbooo [236] => the &#8220;there is no recession in sight&#8221; chartbooi ) </h1> </body>