A new system is developing in the Atlantic, just as peak hurricane season has arrived.
The tropical wave identified by the National Hurricane Center is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Sunday and has a 30% chance of forming in the next seven days.
“Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week,” the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. Saturday tropical weather outlook.
Weather models indicate a mid-September ramp-up for hurricane season with extra hot sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean. According to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist with Colorado State University, Caribbean temperatures are particularly hot this year, which will make storms more likely.
A factor in the Caribbean’s unusually hot water in August was Hurricane Erin. As the massive storm, which reached Category 5, traveled north, away from the Caribbean, its rotation created west winds over the region, which countered easterly trade winds. The net effect was less wind in the Caribbean, which allowed the sun to warm the placid water.
“Caribbean storms were normally an October phenomenon, but we’re seeing Caribbean storms in September lately,” Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross told the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
A potential La Niña, which is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns, would make storms even more likely, although there’s no official such designation yet from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Florida’s hurricane season runs annually from June 1 to November 30, encompassing the entire North Atlantic basin. The peak months are September and October.
