MIAMI GARDENS — This is my second year offering my Dolphins betting guide. I was a lukewarm 6-4 last season.

My losses were Dolphins against the spread against Arizona, Buffalo ATS on Nov. 3, running back De’Von Achane rushing for more than 100 yards vs. Buffalo on Nov. 3 and Cleveland ATS.

That second Buffalo game on Nov. 3 crushed me. I took two losses.

My wins were Dolphins-Bills under on Sept. 12, Dolphins-Titans over, Dolphins ATS against the Patriots on Nov. 24, Dolphins-Patriots over on Nov. 24, Green Bay money line, and wide receiver Tyreek Hill less than 80 yards receiving against the 49ers.

That second Dolphins vs. Patriots game on Nov. 24 was good to me. I got two wins.

Before we proceed, you know some of my betting tentpoles:

The Dolphins are 4-16 vs. playoff teams over the past three years, including 2-10 in the last two years, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa started all 12 games;
In those 12 games against playoff teams, Tua has 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions;
Neither Hill nor wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has a 100-yard receiving game against a playoff team in the past two years;
In the past two seasons, the Dolphins are 11-0 when Hill has 100 or more yards and 7-16 when he has 99 or fewer. 

And as a reminder, I’m not a gambler.

Here’s what I’ve got cooking for this season…

Sept. 7 at Indianapolis

Under

The Dolphins were 3-6 on the road last season and averaged just 16.3 points per game. In the games Tua started, the Dolphins were 1-3 on the road and averaged 19.8 points.

Beyond that, the Dolphins’ early-season offense is a concern, as Tua hasn’t thrown to Tyreek in a competitive situation since the San Francisco game on Dec. 22, because Tyreek missed so much offseason/training camp time with right wrist surgery and an oblique injury. 

Plus, the Colts’ defensive line is considered a team strength, while the Dolphins’ revamped offensive line remains a bit of a question, especially early.

Sept. 14 at New England

Dolphins over 3.0 sacks

I like the Dolphins’ front seven. I try not to overhype them. I think they’ll get after Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. New England gave up 52 sacks last season, tied for fifth-most in the league.

The Dolphins’ front seven includes edge rushers/outside linebackers Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Chop Robinson and Matthew Judon, defensive linemen Zach Sieler, Benito Jones and Kenneth Grant, and inside linebackers/off-ball linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson. They have game-changing/game-winning potential. And because it’s early in the season, they should be healthy.

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Sept. 18 at Buffalo

Bills money line

x-Tyreek under 100 yards receiving

x-Waddle under 100 yards receiving

The real bet here is Bills on the money line. The other two are suggestions for a parlay.

Buffalo is 6-1 vs. Miami in the three-year coach Mike McDaniel era and on a six-game winning streak. 

On top of that, this is a Thursday night road game for the Dolphins, which spells trouble in the McDaniel/Tua era. Under McDaniel, they’re 0-3 on Thursday with losses at Cincinnati (27-15 in 2022), against Buffalo (31-10 in 2024) and at Green Bay (30-17 on Thanksgiving in 2023). Plus, Tua has been knocked out of two of those games with a concussion — Cincinnati and Buffalo.

As for the parlay, neither Tyreek nor Waddle has a 100-yard receiving game against Buffalo in the McDaniel era.

Sept. 29 vs. New York Jets

Dolphins ATS

The Jets are predicted to be awful. The Dolphins are predicted to be mediocre to bad. But this is a Monday night game coming off a Thursday game (at Buffalo) which means the Dolphins have a long week.

The Dolphins are 4-2 against the Jets in the McDaniel/Tua era, winning by five points, 21 points, 30 points and six points.

Plus, the Dolphins are 3-0 at home against the Jets in the McDaniel/Tua era winning by five, 30 and six. 

Oct. 12 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Dolphins money line

The Dolphins are at home for this one, so there’s no excuse. The Dolphins are 18-7 (.720) at home in the McDaniel/Tua era. And they beat the Chargers, 36-34, on the road in the 2023 season opener in one of the best wins of the past three years.

I’m not sure the Dolphins will be favored, I’m not sure the Dolphins will cover the spread, but I’m fairly sure the Dolphins will win.

Oct. 19 at Cleveland

Dolphins ATS

x-Tua more than 300 yards passing

x-Dolphins score first

The Dolphins beat the Browns last season with quarterback Tyler “Snoop” Huntley, so you’ve got to like their chances this year. Cleveland is projected to win five or six games, so the Dolphins are almost a lock in this one. In fact, it should be a wire-to-wire win, meaning the Dolphins never trail

Bet the mortgage on the Dolphins covering the spread.

And if you’re feeling good, make it a parlay with Tua passing for more than 300 yards and the Dolphins scoring first.

Nov. 9 vs. Bills

Achane 100 yards rushing

Admittedly, this is risky. Running back De’Von Achane has four games against the Bills and has one 100-yard rushing game and a 96-yard rushing game (along with 63 yards and 56 rushing yards). 

Here’s the thinking: The Bills protect against Tyreek and Waddle getting 100 yards receiving, and Tyreek in particular. They don’t care about rushing totals. They know the Dolphins can’t beat them on the ground. The Dolphins emphasizing the ground game means the ball isn’t going to Tyreek.

The Dolphins will find success feeding Achane in this home game that follows the Baltimore game and precedes facing Washington in Madrid, Spain.

Nov. 16 vs. Washington in Spain

Washington ATS

Speaking of facing Washington in Madrid, this doesn’t shape up well for the Dolphins. The Commanders advanced to the NFC Championship game last season. And we all recall how quarterback Jayden Daniels carved up the Dolphins’ secondary in that red-zone drill in a joint practice in his rookie year.

Guess what? Daniels is better and the Dolphins’ secondary is worse.

Washington will probably pound the Dolphins, who lost their only other international game of the McDaniel/Tua era to Kansas City, 21-14, in Germany.

Nov. 30 vs. New Orleans

Dolphins ATS

The Saints are projected to win five or six games. The Dolphins have them at home in their last game of November. The Dolphins better pound these guys. If not, the rest of Dolphins’ the schedule — at Jets (Dec. 7), at Pittsburgh (Dec. 15), vs. Cincinnati (Dec. 21), vs. Tampa Bay (Dec. 28) and at New England (TBD/flex game in early January) — is a lost cause.

Dec. 21 vs. Cincinnati

Joe Burrow 300 yards passing

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had a good argument for MVP last season with 43 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 108.5 passer rating. Add in wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the Dolphins are in for a long night, as Cincinnati will be playing for a playoff berth or playoff seeding.

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2025/09/04/chris-perkins-perks-second-annual-dolphins-betting-guide/