MIAMI GARDENS — It’s Year 2 for Sun Sentinel Dolphins columnist Chris Perkins and Dolphins writer David Furones picking prop bets, which they’ll do for all 17 regular-season games, and this season promises to be more successful than last year.
Prior to each game, Furones and Perkins will select a “Best Bet” and a “Longshot.” The “Best Bet” selection is a near 50-50 proposition while the “Longshot” is at least +300 or a 3-to-1 probability.
They don’t place dollar amounts on their bets (neither wants to go broke), but you’re welcome to wager as much as you can afford.
Furones is 1-1 on his “Best Bets” while Perk is 0-2. On the “Longshot,” Furones is 1-1 while Perk is 0-2.
Perkins and Furones use the Hard Rock Bet app for odds. Be sure to check the South Florida Sun Sentinel game predictions for Thursday’s outlook.
Perk’s Best bet: De’Von Achane anytime TD (-115)
Achane is Miami’s most versatile offensive player, able to score via air or ground. He leads the team in touchdowns with a modest two. He’s one of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s most trusted targets and he’s coach Mike McDaniel’s first, and almost only choice as a ball carrier out of the backfield.
Furones’ Best Bet: Dalton Kincaid over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Dolphins’ defense against tight ends is often suspect, and it will be tested against Kincaid. He has been over this mark in each of his first two games. Even as the Bills only threw 27 times last Sunday against the Jets, Kincaid led the team in targets (six) and receptions (four), as he collected 37 receiving yards.
I also considered Josh Allen hitting the rushing yards over on 26.5 yards as he’s generally so tough to stop on the scramble, but consider that Allen was held to 2 and 7 rushing yards in the two meetings last year with the Dolphins defense run by current coordinator Anthony Weaver.
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Perk’s Longshot: De’Von Achane 100+ rushing yards (+575)
Achane has played four games against the Bills and he rushed for 101 yards in one game and 96 yards in another. The key here is Buffalo focuses on shutting down wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle so much (neither has a 100-yard receiving game against the Bills) that they don’t care if Achane rushes for more than 100 yards.
Longshot: Bills defense or special teams TD (+500)
Tagovailoa has committed turnovers. He has taken sacks. He is behind backups on a banged-up right side of the offensive line and has an inexperienced left side of the line. He is playing in a hostile environment in prime time. And if it gets out of hand, a defensive touchdown feels likely at some point as it turns into a celebration for the Bills.
I took a gander at Achane to reach eight receptions at +300 with how active he has been in the passing game, with the Bills likely to force checkdowns, but I’ll go with the greater odds here.
Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — Can Miami stop Bills? | VIDEO
