As Connecticut starts off October with mild temperatures and lots of sunshine, the state is facing abnormally dry conditions with the potential to turn into a moderate drought as the start of the fall wildfire season begins, forecasters said.
Amid a mild stretch this past week, Connecticut has seen temperatures mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s, with mostly sunny and humid conditions, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. Forecasters now say mild temperatures are expected to continue this month with a forecast of mostly dry weather.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the entire state is listed as “abnormally dry” conditions. The southeast part of the state along the shoreline in New London County is listed as being in moderate drought.
“If you end the summer on a dry note and start losing leaves in the fall, that is fuel for fire,” Accuweather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
“The thing that we should be thankful for is that there hasn’t been a lot of wind. So any wildfires we might have had already didn’t have a chance to really kick up. We did have a few days of rain last week that actually reduced our level from a drought to just abnormally dry conditions. That rain really helped us out.”
The River Road bridge crosses the low waters of the Hammonasset River in Madison, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. Drought conditions are evident across Connecticut, especially in the southeastern part of the state. (Aaron Flaum/Hartford Courant)
Pastelok said that dry conditions will continue for most of the week until next Wednesday, with more warmer conditions setting in. Much of the Northeast is experiencing dry or drought conditions. Northern New England, including parts of Maine and New Hampshire, are currently listed as extreme drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
“Getting rain for a day and then drying out for five or six days afterwards is not good,” Pastelok said. “That’s going to be the patten through at least mid to late October. Because after the rain event next week, another big high pressure system builds right behind it. So it will most likely dry out again for several days afterwards.”
So far this year, 29.62 inches of rainfall has been recorded in Connecticut, well below the 37.34 inch average for this time of year, according to RainDrop.com. September saw just 2.59 inches of accumulated rainfall, and August saw just 1.60 inches.
“The state is averaging about 60 to 65 percent of average rainfall, which is below average,” Pastelok said.
“Without the tropics or anything coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, it doesn’t change our weather pattern. If it doesn’t get wet in Tennessee and down to the Mississippi Valley, then it stays mostly dry in the Northeast as well, because that’s often where our air is coming from,” he said. “So since it’s been dry down there with no tropical moisture coming up and affecting our pattern, I think that’s why we’ve had a below average year for rainfall.”
Low water levels are visible in the Hammonassett River in Madison, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. Drought conditions are evident across Connecticut, especially in the southeastern part of the state. (Aaron Flaum/Hartford Courant)
As dry conditions persist, the risk of devastating wildfires increases. The dry weather stretch comes as the state still reels from a series of devastating wildfires last year that led to the death of a Wethersfield firefighter. The Hawthorne fire in Berlin, which consumed more than 100 acres at its peak, was one of the largest in the state in decades. Through September, there have been six brush fires reported in the state, according to the Wildland Fire Reporting System through the state’s Department of Energy and Environmental Protection.
Connecticut has two forest fire seasons: spring fire season, normally mid-March to mid-May, and fall fire season, according to Accuweather.
Fall wildfire season varies by region but is generally considered the period from mid-September or October until the first snowfall, characterized by dry, windy conditions that increase fire risk. In Connecticut, it runs from October to the first snowfall, with dry, windy conditions and fallen leaves act as fuel for fires.
Over the next few weeks, dry and potentially windy weather conditions, combined with fallen leaves and increased sunlight reaching and warming the forest floor, can elevate the likelihood of wildfires, according to state officials.
Water use
Connecticut Water, which serves 60 towns in Connecticut has issued a notice to its customers that, “due to abnormally dry conditions and low rain forecast levels, Connecticut Water has issued conservation requests for customers in the following towns: Clinton, Madison, Guilford, Old Saybrook, Westbrook and Plymouth.”
“Using water wisely will ensure available supply for public health and fire protection. This request is until further notice. We will continue to update customers on drought status,” the company notice says.
The Metropolitan District, a non-profit municipal corporation, reports in its most recent data that it reservoir levels as of August 31 are at 94.7% of capacity. The MDC notes that its surface water supply system of reservoirs includes: 30.3 billion gallon Barkhamsted Reservoir and 9.5 billion gallon Nepaug Reservoir.
“Because of the large size of its reservoirs relative to the amount of water typically used, the MDC is better able to meet water use demands during drought conditions,” according to the MDC.
The MDC supplies water to eight member towns, Bloomfield, East Hartford, Hartford, Newington, Rocky Hill, West Hartford, Wethersfield and Windsor, but also to portions of Farmington, Glastonbury, East Granby and South Windsor, which the agency’s non-member towns.
While the South Central Regional Water Authority, which serves 15 towns in Greater New Haven, says “the level of water in reservoirs rises and falls throughout the year,” it list its reservoirs at 72% of capacity.as of Sept. 15. The usual capacity at this time of year is 71 percent, according to the agency. Further, according to the RWA, it on average, supplies 42.3 million gallons of water a day to nearly 432,000 people.
Pastelok said that October and November tend to be more dry months due to persistent high-pressure systems that block moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and create dry, westerly wind flows, leading to less precipitation and increased drought conditions.
Connecticut experienced record wildfires last fall, with 605 fires burning more than 500 acres, destroying eight structures and disrupting communities across the state, a spokesperson with DEEP said. Last year, Gov. Ned Lamont declared a state of emergency, issued a statewide burn ban and activated the Northeast Forest Fire Protection Compact, bringing in support from other states and the National Guard. During the last wildlife season, eight firefighters were injured.
As wildfires continue to be a major risk, Lamont and Connecticut Insurance Department commissioner Andrew Mais announced the launch of a free online risk mapping tool that allows Connecticut homeowners and businesses to assess their property’s risk from flooding, wildfires and other perils to better understand their insurance needs.
Provided through a public-partnership between CID and First Street, a global provider of physical climate risk data and analytics, the mapping tool gives residents access to property-level data through interactive maps and risk-rating reports. By entering an address, homeowners and businesses can immediately see their property’s exposure to a range of climate-related risks such as flooding, wildfire, hurricane winds, extreme heat and air quality.
State officials say the majority of wildfires in Connecticut are caused by improper burning of debris, arson, campfires and discarded wood ashes and equipment.
Fire prevention tips from DEEP include:
Always obeying local laws regarding open fires (apply for open burning permits).
Using caution when having a campfire.
Keeping all flammable objects away from fire.
Having a water source and tools readily available to extinguish a fire.
Never leaving a fire unattended.
Carefully disposing of hot ashes.
Extinguishing and disposing of smoking materials appropriately.
Stephen Underwood can be reached at sunderwood@courant.com.
