A powerful Category 5 Hurricane Melissa has begun its assault on Jamaica on Tuesday, and at its current strength, it would be the strongest hurricane to hit the island since record-keeping began in 1851.

Melissa will bring the threat of  “catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, and destructive winds,” according to the National Hurricane Center. The National Hurricane Center warned of “life-threatening” surge of 13 feet in southern Jamaica.

Hours before the storm, the Jamaican government said it had done all it could to prepare as it warned of catastrophic damage.

“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said. “The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.”

As of the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory, Melissa still had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph located about 115 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica and 290 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, moving north-northeast at 5 mph.

Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 195 miles.

“Conditions are deteriorating across Jamaica, where heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions have spread across the island,” said NHC’s senior hurricane specialist Brad Reinhart warning residents to remain sheltered, as the “extremely dangerous” hurricane will cause widespread infrastructure damage and power and communication outages. “Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa’s center. … Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of life.”

Its current track has it making landfall in Jamaica about 8 a.m. Tuesday some 60 miles west of Kingston then again in eastern Cuba, west of Guantánamo, overnight into Wednesday morning.

“Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger,” the hurricane center’s latest forecast said.

Several towns along Jamaica’s southern coast already reported power outages as winds picked up throughout the night. More than 50,000 customers were without power. Landslides, fallen trees and downed power lines were reported ahead of the storm.

Mandatory evacuations were ordered in flood-prone communities in Jamaica, with buses ferrying people to safe shelter.

Colin Bogle, a Mercy Corps advisor based near Kingston, said most families are sheltering in place despite the government ordering evacuations in flood-prone communities.

“Many have never experienced anything like this before, and the uncertainty is frightening,” he said. “There is profound fear of losing homes and livelihoods, of injury, and of displacement.”

The erratic and slow-moving storm killed at least three people in Haiti and a fourth person in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing. Two people died in Jamaica over the weekend as they cut trees ahead of the storm, according to the country’s emergency management office.

In the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center is warning of extreme and prolonged amounts of rainfall that will result in numerous life-threatening flash floods, landslides and storm surge.

“With the slow movement of this system, it doesn’t allow you to recover. It’s going to sit there, pouring water while it’s barely moving and that is a significant challenge that we have to be aware of,” warned Evan Thompson, principal director at Jamaica’s meteorological service.

AccuWeather meteorologist Jonathan Porter said that critical infrastructure including Jamaica’s main international airport and power plants are located along the coast in Kingston, where a storm surge of up to 13 feet was expected.

“This can become a true humanitarian crisis very quickly, and there is likely going to be the need for a lot of international support,” Porter said.

A storm of Category 4 or higher has not made landfall in Jamaica in 174 years of record-keeping. Hurricane Gilbert was a Category 3 storm when it hit the island in 1988. Hurricanes Ivan and Beryl were both Category 4, but they did not make landfall on the island, Thompson said.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica, eastern Cuban and the southeastern and central Bahamas. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Haiti.

The New York Times reported that the U.S. military has evacuated about 1,000 nonessential Defense Department workers and relatives from the U.S. Navy base at Guantánamo Bay. Approximately 3,000 residents remain there.

National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan in a live briefing Monday afternoon said strong winds in Melissa’s eyewall could completely destroy shelters, homes and buildings in Jamaica in its path, both on the coast and in central parts of the island as the center moves across during the day Tuesday. Melissa’s forward speed will increase and the eye will move “very quickly across the island,” he said.

“This is going to lead to widespread infrastructure damage, prolonged power outages, communication outages and isolated communities, so it’s going to be a very dangerous post-storm environment,” he said.

Hurricane Melissa’s forecast cone as of 5 a.m. Tuesdayy, Oct. 28, 2025. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)

Up to 40 inches of rain is forecast for some southern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti as well as Jamaica through Wednesday, with the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti possibly seeing as much as 35 inches. Southeast Cuba could see up to 20 inches in some areas. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

“The mountainous terrain across these islands will amplify runoff and significantly increase the risk of life-threatening flash flooding, landslides and road washouts,” wrote AccuWeather meteorologists in a release. “These impacts could isolate communities across these islands for an extended period of time. This can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where a large number of people are in need of basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing and medical care.”

Anticipating the hardship in store for his country, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said, “I have been on my knees in prayer.”

Jamaican government officials said they were worried that fewer than 1,000 people were in the more than 130 shelters open across the island.

“It’s way, way below what is required for a Category 5 hurricane,” said Daryl Vaz, Jamaica’s transport minister, who urged people “to be smart … If you are not, unfortunately, you will pay the consequences.”

Melissa damaged more than 750 homes across the Dominican Republic, displacing more than 3,760 people. Floodwaters also have cut access to at least 48 communities, officials said.

In neighboring Haiti, the storm destroyed crops in three regions, including 37 acres of maize at a time when at least 5.7 million people, more than half of the country’s population, is experiencing crisis levels of hunger, with 1.9 million of those facing emergency levels of hunger.

Melissa should be near or over Cuba by late Tuesday as a major hurricane of Category 3 or above, where it could bring up to 12 inches of rain, before moving toward the central Bahamas Wednesday while still at hurricane strength.

Brennan, the National Hurricane Center Director, said Melissa could threaten Bermuda by Wednesday night or Thursday.

The east coast of the U.S. should expect, large swells and tumultuous marine conditions later in the week, as effects from Melissa combine with a storm traveling across the U.S.

Forecast computer tracks, known as “spaghetti models,” on Tuesday show Hurricane Melissa making a turn northeast in the Caribbean. (polarwx.com/courtesy)

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Four hurricanes have formed so far. Of the 13 named Atlantic storms, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

https://www.pilotonline.com/2025/10/28/hurricane-melissa-track-jamaica-cuba-bahamas/