Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (2-7) and Buffalo Bills (6-2) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 10 game at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):
When the Dolphins run: If Sunday afternoon Miami shocks Buffalo with an upset, the most likely reason would be if the Dolphins dominate in this facet of the game. When the two teams met in September in a Thursday night game, Miami averaged 5.2 yards per carry, incorporating rookie Ollie Gordon II into a successful opening drive to set an early tone of physicality as he complemented De’Von Achane.
Some of the Dolphins’ better performances this season have come when they stick with the run and do it effectively. The four times they’ve rushed for more than 100 yards as a team this season: Wins against the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons and when they played tight against the Los Angeles Chargers and Bills the first time.
Buffalo is vulnerable against the run, ranking 31st out of 32 teams in rushing yards per attempt allowed with its base nickel defense. Dolphins center Aaron Brewer and guards Cole Strange and Jonah Savaiinaea will work against veteran Jordan Phillips and rookie Deone Walker if Daquan Jones again can’t go. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is on injured reserve. If they take care of the interior defensive linemen, the Miami linemen can get to the second level of linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano. Edge: Dolphins
When the Bills run: Running back and Miami Central High alum James Cook is on a torrid pace averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game, with 867 yards in eight games. But his status is now in doubt, missing practice early in the week with foot and ankle injuries. It’ll probably be a combination of Ray Davis and Ty Johnson carrying the football for the Bills if Cook can’t play.
The Buffalo run game leads the NFL between Cook’s production and quarterback Josh Allen’s ability to scramble (280 rushing yards) and punch in touchdowns on the QB sneak (seven rushing touchdowns). The Dolphins are 30th against the run and coming off allowing a 119-yard performance by Derrick Henry in last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
Center Connor McGovern and right guard O’Cyrus Torrence will spearhead an effort up front to prioritize shielding veteran defensive tackle Zach Sieler away from the ball while they probably figure they can keep rookie defensive linemen Kenneth Grant and Jordan Phillips at bay. The Jordyn Brooks-Tyrel Dodson linebacker duo probably racks up ample tackles again. Edge: Bills
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a four-touchdown, no-interception performance two games ago against the Falcons. Then, the offense was kept out of the end zone in last week’s loss to Baltimore. Tagovailoa was 25 of 40 for 261 yards and a late interception. His 11 interceptions lead the NFL and, last time he faced the Bills, he threw one in the fourth quarter when Miami was driving down the field with a chance to tie.
The past eight times these two teams met, Tyreek Hill was there for the Dolphins. With the speedster done for the season, it’ll be interesting to see if the Bills alter their usual two-high safety looks when Jaylen Waddle is the only wideout Buffalo truly has to worry about. Waddle has at least 82 receiving yards in four of the five games since Hill’s season-ending injury. The Bills have safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin on IR, so they are down to having a past-his-prime Jordan Poyer starting. Buffalo also may be without standout nickel corner Taron Johnson.
The Bills and their No. 2 pass defense are also banged up on the pass rush with defensive ends Joey Bosa and A.J Epenesa battling injuries, but former Miami Hurricanes standout Greg Rousseau will still be manning his side. Right tackle Larry Borom will have his hands full there. Left tackle Patrick Paul should be expected to hold it down on his end if Bosa can’t play. Buffalo and coach Sean McDermott are as familiar as anyone with the Dolphins’ pass game. Edge: Bills
When the Bills pass: It’s Allen against the Dolphins. By now, you know how that goes. He’s 13-2 in regular-season games against Miami, with 40 touchdowns to just eight interceptions and 3,950 passing yards. He also has 672 rushing yards against the Dolphins in those pairings. The first time the teams met in September in Orchard Park, Allen was 22 of 28 for 213 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Standard operating procedure.
Buffalo’s leading receiver is tight end Dalton Kincaid, with 411 receiving yards and four touchdowns. That’s bad news for the Dolphins, who struggle covering tight ends. Maybe they find ways to get safety Minkah Fitzpatrick on him. On the outside, it’ll be a lot of Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. The problem for the Dolphins there is cornerback Rasul Douglas, who is having a strong season, is in danger of missing this game. It could be a tandem of Jack Jones and Ethan Bonner, with Jason Marshall Jr. back in the slot.
Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins is elite protecting Allen’s blind side, but recall Chop Robinson got his first career sack against him last season. Unfortunately for the Miami pass rush, on the week the Dolphins trade away Jaelan Phillips, Robinson may not play as he navigates concussion protocol. Matt Judon could start opposite Bradley Chubb, and there’s the possibility Willie Gay Jr. gets some edge-rushing chances. Edge: Bills
Special teams: Jake Bailey has had a strong season punting while the Bills have shuffled through different punters, the latest being Mitch Wishnowsky. Kickers Riley Patterson and Matt Prater have both been serviceable filling in for their respective teams. The Dolphins may not have one kick returner, Dee Eskridge, available, but Malik Washington has been splendid both returning kickoffs and punts. It also appears gunner Elijah Campbell is back to handling his role covering punts after a brief quadriceps injury. Edge: Even
Intangibles: Buffalo has won seven consecutive against Miami and 14 of the past 15 in the series. The Bills are coming off an impressive win against the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Dolphins just lost by three touchdowns against the Ravens, in a game in which they were undisciplined with costly penalties and mishaps. A couple of things working in the Dolphins’ favor, though, are the extra rest coming off the mini-bye on the back end of a Thursday night game and that the forecast calls for a high of 86 degrees as the players from western New York are having their bodies grow accustomed to the fall cold. Edge: Bills
PREDICTION: Bills 31, Dolphins 16
Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — Will Miami keep it close vs. Bills? | VIDEO
