MIAMI GARDENS — One of the most certain bets in the NFL for the last few years has been Buffalo over Miami straight up. The Bills have a seven-game winning streak over the reeling Dolphins, and likely will extend that streak to eight this weekend.
Buffalo, which is 8 1/2-point favorites in Sunday’s 1 p.m. game at Hard Rock Stadium, also has won 14 of the last 15 matchups against Miami.
The Dolphins defeated Buffalo, 21-19, in Week 3 of the 2022 season. Buffalo has defeated the Dolphins in every game since then, including a 34-31 playoff victory after the 2022 season and a 31-21 victory earlier this season.
“They’ve beaten us because they’ve scored more points, and done the right football things longer than we have in those games that we lost,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said.
Let’s be real. The Bills have emasculated the Dolphins in numerous ways during this stretch.
In September, the Dolphins played one of their most complete games of the season against Buffalo. The problem, as often is the case in these games, was the fourth quarter. The Dolphins had a costly roughing the punter/kicker penalty against defensive tackle Zach Sieler that allowed Buffalo to extend its drive and take a 28-21 lead. And on the ensuing possession, Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception that led to a Buffalo field goal and the final score of 31-21.
“They don’t give it to you, you have to earn it,” McDaniel said. “Until you’re able to do that as a team throughout the entire work week, into the game, and play four quarters, they make it extremely tough to beat them.”
In 2022, the Dolphins took advantage of sweltering heat and humidity that caused several Bills players to have issues with cramps as well as a wave of Buffalo defensive injuries to get a hard-fought two-point victory.
“In that game, I think the turnover differential was more of what we’re looking for,” McDaniel said of his team’s 1-0 advantage in that category.
The Dolphins overcame the infamous “butt punt” — punter Thomas Morestead’s punt bounced off of wide receiver Trent Sherfield’s backside and out of the end zone for a fourth-quarter safety — and a huge disadvantage in time of possession (40:40 to 19:20) for that win.
Since then, it seems Buffalo just can’t lose to Miami no matter how the Bills play.
Late in the 2022 season, Bills quarterback Josh Allen outdueled Tagovailoa and delivered a great fourth-quarter performance to lead the Bills to a 32-29 win in the snow at Highmark Stadium. The Dolphins took a 29-21 lead early in the fourth quarter, but Allen led the Bills to 11 fourth-quarter points that included Allen’s two-point conversion and Tyler Bass’ game-winning 25-yard field goal as time expired.
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In the 2022 playoff game, a game that Tagovailoa missed with a concussion leaving rookie seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson as the starter, the Dolphins’ offense only scored two touchdowns (Sieler scored on a fumble return). The Dolphins’ defense allowed Buffalo’s offense to go 9 of 16 on third downs and rack up 423 yards.
In 2023, Buffalo pounded Miami, 48-20, one week after the Dolphins pounded Denver, 70-20. In the season finale, Buffalo edged Miami, 21-14, on a pair of big fourth-quarter plays — a 96-yard punt return touchdown by Deonte Hardy to tie the game at 14, and a 5-yard go-ahead touchdown pass from Allen to tight end Dawson Knox with 7:16 left.
In 2024, Buffalo hammered Miami, 31-10, in Week 3, a game in which Tagovailoa went on injured reserve with a concussion after trying to run over Bills safety Damar Hamlin. Later in the season, Buffalo edged Miami, 30-27, when Bass hit a 61-yard field goal with five seconds left. The game-winning drive was aided by an offside penalty by rookie edge rusher Chop Robinson and a costly pass interference penalty by veteran safety Jordan Poyer, the longtime Bills player.
The Dolphins are well aware of their struggles against the rival Bills.
“We haven’t beat Buffalo since the first year Mike (McDaniel) has been here, so we look at this as we’ve got to win every time we play Buffalo,” Tagovailoa said. “That’s kind of how we look at it. I don’t think you can look at it any other way and for us as a team collectively this year, we’ve got nothing to lose. We’ve got to go all in with this.”
