Following Japan’s ugly PMIs (Services lowest since March 2025) and Europe’s disaster (weakest composite EU PMI since late 2023)…

…with prices surging…

All eyes are on the US ‘soft’ survey data for signs of divergence (or contagion).

With US ‘hard’ data improving notably, the preliminary soft survey data for May was mixed with improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector.

Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 50.9 (April: 51.0). 2-month low.

Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 (April: 54.5). 48-month high. 

Source: Bloomberg

“The damaging economic impact from the war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the business surveys,” according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook.

Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter…

However, Williamson notes that even this subdued pace of growth may not last.

“On average, over the past three months order book growth has slowed to its weakest for two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever.

Demand also looks set to cool further in response to rising prices.

“Firms’ costs have jumped higher at a pace not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are being passed on to customers in the form of sharply higher selling prices. The survey price gauges therefore indicate that inflation looks set to rise further just as the economy cools.”

Finally, while the composite numbers are not that encouraging, on a relative basis, US looks dominant…

Maybe trump was right about the impact of the war on everyone else? (Just don’t tell anyone who drives!)