The United Nations food agency is sounding a catastrophic alarm on the macroeconomic fallout of the ongoing conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf region. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), millions of people are actively being plunged into acute hunger due to the war – realizing a grim trajectory the agency previously warned would occur if the Middle East crisis stayed prolonged and global oil prices remained elevated.

Fragile economies are feeling the most pain, with WFP analysis of three highly vulnerable nations revealing that an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia, 2.3 million in Afghanistan, and 1.3 million in Sri Lanka are currently struggling to meet their most basic daily nutritional needs. Back in March, the WFP estimated that a staggering 45 million people globally could be pushed into severe food insecurity by the end of June, compounding the over 300 million people globally who were already facing critical food shortages before the war erupted.

via EPA

The Rome-based UN agency issued a new detailed assessment at the end of this past week, describing how that the Middle East crisis is actively generating “significant spillovers” – by driving up the cost of food and fuel while heavily disrupting global trade networks. 

Crucially, the agency warned that the economic bleeding will not stop immediately, even if a diplomatic breakthrough occurs. “These impacts are expected to intensify in the coming months, even if the crisis in the Middle East de-escalates,” it wrote.

“We remain by that prognosis,” WFP’s acting Executive Director Carl Skau informed a UN press briefing. “That’s mainly because the correlation between the prices of energy and food is so tight in many places, and also that in the poorest countries people are already spending all their money on food, and hence when food prices rise, they eat less.”

Even prior to the Iran war’s start, near the beginning of the war, United Nations agencies themselves were feeling the crunch after a significant drawdown in US support and funding.

The Trump administration slashed support over criticism that the UN has long failed to promote American interests.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has been warning that outstanding dues reached a record $1.568 billion at the end of 2025 and that collections covered only 76.7% of assessed contributions, leaving the organization dangerously exposed. 

As for how this impacts the WFP, it says it has already been forced to strictly ration and limit aid to millions of impoverished people due to drastic international funding cuts.

The agency has issued urgent plea to global donors to immediately step up financial contributions, with a specific focus on stabilizing Somalia and Afghanistan, “because the human consequences of not doing more will be massive.”