Will he? Won’t he? Now, next week, another time or never?

President Donald Trump has created quite the guessing game, centered on the serial on-again, off-again threat to send the National Guard into Chicago to address a purported crime wave.

Never mind that homicides are projected to close out this year somewhere close to Mayor Brandon Johnson’s effort to limit the city’s homicide rate to under 500 deaths. The total is down by about a half from the pandemic-era, post-George Floyd peaks of 2020 and 2021.

For Trump, acts and facts, such as truly deploying the guard in Chicago, seem to matter little or not at all. He seems indifferent to the historic gravity of the notion that an American president would send military troops into a city over strident objection from the city’s mayor and the state’s governor.

The “Chipocalypse Now” meme he published on social media — using artificial intelligence to dress himself up in military garb, a la Robert Duvall’s character Lt. Col. Bill Kilgore in “Apocalypse Now” — underscored Trump’s fecklessness in this moment. After all, Kilgore’s troops viciously raid a Vietnamese village for the sole purpose of clearing a beach so a cavalryman can go surfing.

If Trump ever does send the guard into Chicago, the move would be just as indefensible.

Yet the serial delays seem to underscore the fact that for Trump, the threats alone may be his key purpose. They feed Trump’s narrative of a crime-ridden city run by a Democratic mayor in a Democrat-dominated state. And perhaps his hesitation in acting on them is a tacit recognition of the likely unconstitutionality of his plan. 

We don’t know, and he’s not saying.

Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson have been drawn into the drama — and are seeking to notch their own political gains. Their made-for-the-Twittersphere rhetoric about Trump’s alleged lawlessness amounts to principled stances wrapped in the combustible rhetoric of our times.

To this point, the clapback from Pritzker and Johnson brings to mind the old schoolyard chant: “Sticks and stones may break our bones, but words will never hurt us.”

But here’s the catch: The National Guard threat may be a distraction, but federal sticks and stones are in fact targeted at our state.

To the extent Pritzker in particular gets distracted by the rhetoric and saber-rattling about the guard, he risks taking his eyes off the real work that needs to be done to mitigate damage from some of Trump’s other actions that affect Illinois.

Whether in the form of the “Big Beautiful Bill” or Trump’s many executive orders, the president’s policies could cost Illinois billions over time. They could erode the state’s credit rating; lead to hospital closures; allow the invasive Asian carp to enter Lake Michigan; and cause Illinois farmers to lose access to their biggest foreign market, China.

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The list goes on. And as serious as military action against the state’s biggest city would be, the policy incursions already in place are real. They’re more than just words.

To be sure, there are ways that Trump’s policies could benefit Illinois financially. Tariffs on manufactured goods could revive slivers of the manufacturing sector. Moves that would revive the downstate coal industry could have short-term economic benefit, the environmental damage notwithstanding. 

That said, the projected costs of Trump’s policies outweigh any projected benefits. 

Cuts to federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits alone could blow a $705 million hole in the state budget by the time they’re fully imposed in fiscal 2028, the Illinois Department of Public Health has warned. Medicaid cuts could go deeper in Illinois — thanks to new eligibility rules that could push as many as 500,000 of the state’s residents off Medicaid rolls; a federally mandated cut to state taxes on Medicaid providers could cost Illinois around $26 billion in federal funding over 10 years.

Downstate rural hospitals and urban safety-net hospitals are particularly vulnerable. Dozens could close, and as with many of Trump‘s policies, that could have an impact on employment. After all, hospitals are the largest employers in many rural counties.

To get a sense of where the policy struggles between Trump and Pritzker are headed, keep an eye on the funding of the downstate Asian carp barrier outside Joliet.

Congress has set aside more than $760 million to complete the partially built barrier that will use electricity and disruptive air bubbles to keep the aggressively invasive species out of Lake Michigan. It is meant to defend the Great Lakes states from losing billions in tourism spending. All Pritzker need do is ask, Trump has hinted, and the funds will be released. 

Pritzker is wary: After all, Trump speaks an untruth from time to time. And to ask for release of dollars already committed by Congress would set a precedent that could potentially put already committed funding for O’Hare International Airport and $2 billion for the CTA Red Line extension also at risk.

For now, at least, Pritzker is playing a waiting game on these spending issues. And who can blame him? Trump has the vast powers of the presidency on his side. And his undisciplined persona serves as camouflage for a calculated, crafty approach to executing a broad, detailed and aggressive agenda that is set on expanding those presidential powers. 

Pritzker has presidential ambitions of his own. He has shown a flair for rhetoric and a political instinct that is breathing life into his long-shot chances. 

That said, Pritzker’s words alone do not hurt Trump. If anything, they appeal to his base and the voters he’s seeking to attract. 

The governor has mastered the art of quotable phrases. Our state needs him to be just as good at developing tactics and strategies that can effectively counter Trump, for the benefit of our state. 

If Trump does deploy the guard to Chicago, it will be a major test of Pritzker‘s leadership. The other challenges may not be as riveting as the guard standoff, but they’re just as important to the welfare of the people of Illinois.

David Greising is president of the Better Government Association.

Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/09/12/column-donald-trump-jb-pritzker-greising/