Forecasters are calling for an abnormally warm Thanksgiving week in South Florida. But a potential cold front after turkey day is still too far off to call.
The National Weather Service is predicting calm and pleasant conditions leading up to the holiday.
“Overall, very dry and calm weather remains ongoing at least into early next week,” the weather service said. Temperatures should reach the low to mid 80s each day and from the mid to high 60s each night.
Weather service temperature maps show above-normal temperatures for most of the Southeast through Black Friday.
The second half of Thanksgiving week and beyond is much more up in the air, experts said.
“We’re looking at the potential for a weakening frontal boundary that could be coming across the area during that time, around Thursday,” said Chuck Caracozza, a weather service meteorologist. “Whether it stalls out or passes through is highly uncertain.”
That could mean a slight increase in moisture, said Caracozza, but it was too soon to tell.
Much of it depends on how much moisture exists ahead of the front. “There’s not much agreement to models,” he said.
Other forecasters are talking about a post-Thanksgiving arctic blast, but various forecast models disagree dramatically about how it could affect Florida.
The “Euro” model, produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicates the cold front will reach well into South Florida, and is showing temperatures in the mid 40s in South Florida and the mid 30s in Central Florida.
The GFS model, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is showing temperatures in the mid 70s in South Florida and high 60s in Central Florida.
It’s “the kind of forecast that makes a weather guy pull his hair out!” wrote WFLA-TV chief meteorologist and climate specialist Jeff Berardelli on X. “It’s a very uncertain forecast and it’s still ~9 days out.”
The kind of forecast that makes a weather guy pull his hair out!
And I don’t have any to spare
But seriously, you’re going to see lots of posts about brutal cold air coming. However it’s a very uncertain forecast and it’s still ~9 days out.
Now there will be cold air in the… pic.twitter.com/UWi3HlIi9L
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) November 20, 2025
Berardelli said there will be cold air in the eastern U.S. at the time, but it’s very unclear how far south it will travel.
He said that the Euro model did well in predicting the last arctic blast, but that the pattern is different for this one. He sees it as a short-lived, “shallow” cold outbreak.
“More substantial, longer-lived cold is possible in December,” he said.
National travel impacts
If you’re traveling next week, a significant storm moving across the central and eastern U.S. next week could pose travel problems, said AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok.
“Storms, snow, gusty winds, and fog would cause flight delays and cancellations during some of the busiest travel days of the year,” Pastelok said. “Drivers could encounter rain and fog as storms push from the central U.S. to the Northeast before Thanksgiving Day.”
As for the system affecting the floats in the Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City, Pastelok said, “At this time, we believe strong winds behind the front will hold off in New York City until the afternoon or evening, and should be relatively light for the large balloons during Thanksgiving morning. However, if the front is faster, winds may kick up sooner.”
