TAMPA — On the downs that mean the most, the Bucs have been at their best. Since the beginning of last season, there has not been a more efficient offense than Tampa Bay when it comes to converting on third down.

Asked the secret to success in those critical moments, offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard talked about knowing the coverages a defense usually prefers on third down. He talked about adjustments. Talked about having a feel for the game. Talked about giving the quarterback the ability to switch plays at the line of scrimmage depending on the defense’s look.

Center Graham Barton was more succinct when asked the same question.

“Baker Mayfield,” he said.

So perhaps we can agree the answer is somewhere in the middle?

You do not lead the NFL in third-down conversions without having a smart, efficient, flexible plan. You also don’t do it without a quarterback capable of thinking — and moving — quickly.

The Bucs — who play Monday at 7 p.m. at Houston — were the only team in the NFL to top 50% on third-down conversions last season. For the record, it was the first time in franchise history the Bucs pulled it off. That means Tom Brady didn’t do it in his three seasons here. Heck, if you want to get a sense of how impressive it is, the Patriots didn’t top 50% in any of Brady’s 20 seasons there.

Of course, Mayfield did not do this all by himself. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin played a role. So did Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. Also, Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton. Not to mention the offensive line.

And it was Grizzard, the team’s pass game coordinator in 2024, who was in charge of third-down situations.

But the reality is, third down is the quarterback’s showcase. Of more than 200 third-down plays in 2024, the Bucs passed — or attempted to pass — a little more than 80% of the time.

And what were Mayfield’s numbers like in those situations?

Among quarterbacks with at least 100 passes, he was second in completion percentage, second in yards, third in touchdowns and fifth in passer rating. Joe Burrow was the only other QB in the top five in all those categories.

As you might expect, Mayfield deflected a little when asked about third-down success. Like Grizzard, he talked about the necessity of understanding what the opposing defensive coordinator leans on in those circumstances. He also credited Tampa Bay’s versatility with play-calling.

“This offense demands [everyone] to have a high football IQ,” Mayfield said. “So [it’s] being able to go to the line of scrimmage with two plays and possibly a kill to get to a third. So, our guys are smart. They’re able to handle that, and that allows us to be successful in third down.”

It’s also worth pointing out that Mayfield is willing to push the envelope. Sometimes a little too much. He had a higher interception rate on third down than in any other situation. He was also willing to use his feet and scramble more on third down.

Mayfield averaged 8.3 yards per carry and converted 52.1% of the time when running on third down. To put that in perspective, he didn’t scramble for as many first downs as Jayden Daniels (21) or Josh Allen (21), but he did have as many as Patrick Mahomes (12) and Kyler Murray (12).

“Games are typically decided on crucial third downs, so we put a big emphasis on that during the week,” said Barton. “And it helps that we’ve got the receivers, we’ve got Bucky and Rachaad who have become great pass-protecting backs, we’ve got guys up front who communicate well.

“And, of course, we’ve got a stud at quarterback.”

It’s not as if the Bucs are reinventing the wheel when it comes to third down. Most teams have similar strategies when it comes to picking out multiple plays and allowing the quarterback to adjust if he recognizes the defensive coverage before the snap.

If anything, the Bucs just seem a little better prepared. They typically devote one morning every week to go over third-down possibilities in a meeting. They’re not afraid to spread the ball around, and they have confidence in Mayfield to read the coverages quickly.

“It comes down to the plan, and for the past two years Grizz has been a huge part of that,” tight end Otton said. “A lot of things change on defense on third down, and we get a lot of different looks. Depending on what’s called, we’ve got different answers within the play, and Baker has tools at his disposal to signal to us when he recognizes different reads and different coverages.

“Baker also has the ability to extend plays and sometimes just goes off schedule and runs for it himself.”

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/09/14/bucs-have-unlocked-3rd-down-and-mayfield-has-the-keys/