Pennsylvania’s 22nd state House District, which represents Center City and East Allentown and a small portion of Salisbury Township, would, by conventional wisdom, be considered a “safe” Democratic seat.
More than half of the district’s voters are Democrats, and Josh Siegel, a Democrat who held the seat before resigning in late 2025 following his election as Lehigh County executive, ran unopposed for a second term in 2024.
But Republicans are looking to challenge that conventional wisdom. With control of Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives at stake — Democrats hold a razor-thin, one-seat majority — the outcome of four upcoming special elections, including the 22nd District, could alter the balance of power.
Ana Tiburcio, a Democrat, member of the Allentown School Board and owner of a tax preparation company, will face Republican Robert E. Smith Jr., a former school board member and program specialist with mental health service provider New Vitae, in the election Feb. 24 to fill the remainder of Siegel’s term.
The two candidates also plan to run in the May primary election for their parties’ candidacy for a two-year term beginning in 2027.
‘The payoff is extraordinary’
One sign of Republicans’ interest in the race came in January, when U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie held a fundraiser for Smith’s campaign at the Americus Hotel, with tickets starting at $60. An email to Mackenzie’s supporters also encouraged them to phone bank and door knock in support of Smith.
In a written statement, Mackenzie said, “I’ve known Bob Smith for a long time and he would do a great job representing the district.”
Neither candidate has yet filed a campaign finance report, which would tell where their financial support is coming from and who is pulling ahead in fundraising. Their first reports were due to Pennsylvania Department of State on Friday, and weren’t available as of press time.
The 22nd District’s population of 31,564 voters is 53% Democratic and just 21% Republican. Yet a significant 23% are unaffiliated and 3.3% are third-party voters.
“It would certainly be a very significant upset if Republicans were to flip this seat, and so you wonder, well, why would they be putting some effort in?” said Chris Borick, a political science professor and pollster at Muhlenberg College. “And the answer is, even with low probability, the payoff is extraordinary. The payoff is you’d be able to flip control of the state House, which is incredibly impactful to have Republicans win control of both the House and the Senate, so the possibility in one special election to do that is very tempting for Republicans to take a shot at.”
Still, Democrats are heavily favored in this election, according to Borick. Not only are voter registration numbers in their favor, but Republicans could face headwinds as a result of President Donald Trump’s broad unpopularity with voters.
Trump faces a 55% disapproval rating from voters and a 41% approval rating, according to aggregator Silver Bulletin. While Smith’s more independent voting record could appeal to some voters who disapprove of Trump, the “Republican” label could be a turnoff for a majority of voters. Republicans faced major defeats in local and statewide elections last year: Democrats won election to Lehigh and Northampton County executive seats, and voters overwhelmingly retained three Democratic justices on the state Supreme Court.
“The broader environment for Republicans right now in elections in places like Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley is fairly toxic,” Borick said. “We saw that last fall, we see it all over the country right now, the president’s standing and his policies are weighing on Republicans throughout the country and that certainly is going to be at play in a heavily Democratic district.”
Of the four upcoming special elections, two of the seats previously were held by Democrats, the 22nd District and 42nd District in Allegheny County. Those will be filled by the Feb. 24 election.
The other two seats were previously held by Republicans, the 79th District in Blair County and 193rd in Adams and Cumberland counties; those elections will be held March 17.
Education focus of debate in Allentown special election that could sway Pa. House control
Getting out the vote in the 22nd District
In a phone interview, Smith acknowledged the attention on the race, saying, “This is the most help I’ve gotten in 30 years of public office.”
“It’s unbelievable,” Smith said. “From Ryan Mackenzie, the Republican Party, different organizations, even from my Democrat neighbors. I know we keep thinking about flipping the seat, I don’t know if I am flipping the seat, but I am trying to represent the Lehigh Valley.”
Smith spent 16 years on the Allentown School Board from 2003 until 2019, and served a term on City Council between 1998 and 2001.
Despite being a Republican, Smith said he is “not a rubber stamp for anyone” and would prioritize helping the Lehigh Valley region before his party affiliation. He has broken with his party on several issues — Smith told The Morning Call he supports raising the minimum wage, which most elected Republicans in the state oppose, and worked with almost entirely Democratic colleagues while on the school board on issues like funding, teacher retention and fair union contracts.
“I think I would be a perfect person to represent everyone: independents, Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated, which I see as rising because people are disgusted right now with the two-party system, and I have tapped into that,” Smith said.
Smith has lived in the East Side of Allentown for 33 years, and believes he has broad support in that part of the district. He has focused on increasing his outreach to voters in Center City and Salisbury Township.
The district is majority-minority: Over half of its population is Hispanic or Latino, around 17% are Black and 33% are white, according to data from the Department of State.
Tiburcio is Latina and a fluent Spanish speaker. Smith’s wife, Eva, is originally from Honduras, and Smith said she has been an active volunteer for his campaign.
If elected, Smith said he would focus on keeping taxes down, bringing funding to Lehigh Valley projects, increasing funding for private school vouchers and enacting a statewide ban on transgender athletes, he told The Morning Call. He has also called for increasing funding to Allentown School District coupled with increased oversight of the district’s financial decisions — he has criticized the district’s spending on administrators and a deal to build a school on the former Allentown State Hospital property.
Local Democrats have faced criticism for their handling of the candidate selection process this year.
An ad-hoc committee of district residents initially selected Julian Guridy, a constituent services representative for state Sen. Nick Miller, in early January, but Guridy was forced to withdraw because he did not meet legal residency requirements. Guridy lived in Florida as recently as 2023, but candidates for state office must have lived in their district for at least four years before running.
In a last-ditch effort to put a candidate on the ballot for the special election, Democrats recruited Tiburcio — who had not originally applied for candidacy — to run in the election. Tiburcio acknowledged that she was “surprised” to suddenly become a candidate for state office, and that her campaign was forced to “rush” to become organized and competitive for the upcoming election.
Tiburcio told The Morning Call that, if elected, she would focus on bringing much-needed resources, like education and workforce training, to the district and connecting people with them.
Tiburcio said that she is focused on voter outreach, hearing residents’ concerns and assuring them that she will fight for them if elected. A lot of voters in the district feel disillusioned and disconnected from local politics, she said, and she is looking to combat that.
Tiburcio’s approach applies to an expected challenge from both sides of the aisle — while Smith will challenge her in the special election and run in the general election in November, she also is expected to face a primary challenge from Ce-Ce Gerlach, a progressive member of Allentown City Council, for the Democratic nomination for the full two-year term.
Still, Tiburcio said she’s focused on the race ahead and connecting with voters.
“We do have a lot of Democrat leaders that actually are working with me,” she said. “I don’t see that as a competition to be honest because my focus is actually the community. That is where the goal is at, so you could have as many endorsements and all these other things and social media, but the connection is really here walking the streets and talking to the small-business owners, the residents, helping them.”
Reporter Lindsay Weber can be reached at Liweber@mcall.com.
