MIAMI GARDENS — It’s a natural question, one borne out of turning disappointment into a near miracle. Can the 2025 Dolphins, with their disappointing 1-4 record, get hot, finish 10-6, and earn a wildcard playoff berth such as the 2016 Dolphins, who also started 1-4?
Technically, yes. But is it likely? Probably not. However, it’s possible.
This year’s Dolphins are as down in the dumps as the 2016 squad through five games. But the fortunes of this year’s Dolphins could change beginning with a victory Sunday over the Los Angeles Chargers.
“We’ve got to look at it as every game is its own season…and we’ve got to start now if we want to make a run and we want to start making moves,” quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said.
The NFL’s last team to turn a 1-4 start into a playoff berth was the Washington Commanders in 2020. It’s a longshot, but there’s a chance the Dolphins could be next on that list by tightening up their porous defense, discovering an offense without Tyreek Hill, and going on a long winning streak that might need to include wins over teams such as Baltimore, Buffalo, Washington and Tampa Bay.
“I think the key is understanding that we’re in control of how we go about this week and the weeks after it,” safety Minkah Fitzpatrick said.
It was nine years ago Saturday that the 2016 Dolphins began their improbable turnaround after a roster shakeup.
Coach Adam Gase shockingly cut three offensive linemen — Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner and Jamil Douglas. Ryan Tannehill, the starting quarterback at the time, said the main takeaway was “you’ve got to get your job done, or we’re going to find somebody who can.” Guard Jermon Bushrod said “it sends a message loud and clear — we’ve got to go out and get the job done.”
The following game running back Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards in a 30-15 victory over Pittsburgh, a victory that sparked a six-game winning streak and a 9-2 finish.
If the 2025 Dolphins are able to mirror that success, it likely will be led by the passing game with Tagovailoa (10 touchdowns, four interceptions, 100.1 passer rating), receiver Jaylen Waddle (23 receptions, 295 yards, three touchdowns), tight end Darren Waller (eight receptions, 105 yards, three touchdowns) and running back De’Von Achane (173 yards receiving, three touchdowns; 262 yards rushing, one touchdown), who would probably need to also have his first 1,000-yard rushing season.
The Dolphins’ passing offense is 21st in the league at 196.4 yards per game, so it’d have a way to go to be more impactful. Tagovailoa would need to develop a knack for making big plays at big moments, the offensive line would need to pass protect and run block in ways that it hasn’t done this season, and the overall operation would need to improve on things such as getting plays to the huddle on time.
“You’ve got to just stay down and keep working, and sooner or later, it’s going to pop,” center Aaron Brewer said. “It’s going to work. That’s just the recipe right now. “
One complication to making a nearly-miraculous playoff run will be dealing with how teams might choose to defend Waller. Last week against Carolina, he had five receptions for 78 yards in the first half before the Panthers clamped down in the second half so hard that Waller wasn’t even targeted.
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“One example was a third-down situation where I’m lined up in like a flexed out tight end position and they have a guy playing me in man,” Waller said, “but he’s heavy outside funneling me into somebody waiting inside on the left side, the safety that’s kind of like rolling down. Things like that, just kind of like playing more area coverages and kind of make somebody else beat you at times and just being in third-and-long situations is kind of tough to begin with.”
And, of course, they’d need to improve a defense that ranks last in the league in rushing at 174.2 yards per game.
But some things are working in their favor.
Their offense is second in the league on third-down conversions at 46.7 percent and they’re even in turnover margin.
Plus, some of the teams on their schedule such as the Chargers, Baltimore and Cincinnati aren’t as fearsome as once thought.
Coach Mike McDaniel, who said he thought the Dolphins “played not to lose” last week, said he thinks his team is mentally equipped for the job ahead.
“I’ve seen them have well-intentioned failure, resolve, failure again, some success, some failure, and I’ve seen a consistent, real ambition and effort on the front end,” he said. “And I’ve seen people kind of evolve with the process and stay together and try to improve and win, lose, or draw. So this week in particular, the focus was on (playing with conviction).”
