MIAMI GARDENS — The day the Dolphins trade wide receiver Tyreek Hill is the day the rebuild gets underway. Tyreek is the Dolphins’ offense. If I was in charge of the Dolphins, there’s no way I would trade Tyreek while there’s still a chance of making the playoffs.
Understand something important here: this isn’t about the real-world issue of the league announcing it’s investigating domestic abuse allegations against Tyreek. This is about the narrow-focus reality of winning NFL games.
If the Dolphins (0-1) can’t figure out how to get the ball to Tyreek this week against New England, there’s a good chance they’ll lose. I’m an on-field Tyreek fan.
And if you know me, you know what I’ve said about the Dolphins since December 2022: This offense is about two things — Tyreek Hill and the threat of Tyreek Hill.
You also know I always cite this stat: Since 2023, the Dolphins are 11-0 and average 35 points per game when Tyreek has 100 or more yards, and they’re 7-17 (.292) and average 18 ppg when Tyreek has 99 or fewer yards.
Tyreek, because he commands so much attention from the defense, opens things up for others and makes the game easier for the entire offense.
By the way, in those 11 wins, Tyreek averages 144 yards per game and has 12 touchdowns. In those 24 losses, he averages 53 yards per game and has seven touchdowns.
I also always cite the fact that Tyreek hasn’t had a 100-yard game against a playoff team since 2022, which is why the Dolphins are 2-10 against playoff teams in that span. The Dolphins’ offense is poorly constructed in that it’s too Tyreek-centric. But there’s nothing they can do about that one game into the 2025 season. The opportunity for coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier to build a better, more-balanced offense has been ignored each of the past few years.
In early October 2024, I wrote the Dolphins’ one-dimensional offense had been figured out and had become as useless as the Wildcat.
Tyreek is that one dimension. Opponents know if they stop Tyreek, they stop the Dolphins.
I’ve critcized Tyreek more than anyone else in South Florida media. Tyreek has knucklehead tendencies off the field, which is why it’s good he wasn’t voted a team captain by his teammates.
Regardless, Tyreek is beyond essential personnel. This offense is nothing without Tyreek. Nothing.
You saw it Sunday in that 33-8 loss at Indianapolis. You saw it throughout training camp and preseason. You saw it in 2024. You saw it in 2023.
Don’t cite the New York Jets game in 2023, when the Dolphins defeated the New York Jets 30-0 without Tyreek. That’s a one-off. The Dolphins defeated Denver 70-20 without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle that same season.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa makes the offense go, but Tyreek makes the offense feared. Tyreek puts the fear factor into the offense.
Tua can’t beat opponents. Waddle can’t beat opponents The same goes for the run game, the defense, the offensive line and every other element of the team. It’s about Tyreek. He’s the one who can beat opponents.
Here’s how that hits home with me this week: I made a bad pick when I chose the Dolphins to defeat New England, 24-20. I still think the Dolphins will win. But in hindsight, there’s no way they score three touchdowns unless the defense scores two.
The problem is Tyreek has hardly spent any time with Tua in the past nine months or so. Tua missed the final two games last season with a hip injury. Tyreek missed the early part of the offseason program after having right wrist surgery, and he missed most of training camp, joint practices and preseason games with an oblique injury.
This isn’t about the Tua-Tyreek off-field relationship. This is about the Tua-Tyreek on-field relationship. It’s strained. In their past three games together, Tyreek has nine receptions on 20 targets, and he’s only totaled 105 yards. Yes, Tyreek has a measly 105 yards receiving in his last three games with Tua. The Dolphins are 1-2 in those games, losing to Houston and Indianapolis, and defeating San Francisco.
If the Dolphins can’t fast-track the Tua-to-Tyreek passing game, they’re cooked.
If the Dolphins trade Tyreek, they’re cooked.
The Dolphins have one option — get the ball to Tyreek. That’s it. The way this offense was built, there’s no other choice.
If you’re one of those who contend the Dolphins could simply run the ball more if they trade Tyreek, consider since 2023 the Dolphins are 8-12 (.400) when they rush for more than 100 yards and 14-10 (.583) when they rush for fewer than 100 yards.
Basically, that means when they rush for more than 100 yards they don’t have success because they’re keeping the ball out of Tyreek’s hands.
The Dolphins, the way the team is currently built, offense can’t operate effectively without Tyreek. If you’re one of those who thinks the Dolphins should get rid of Tyreek, you’re wrong. The Dolphins absolutely must keep Tyreek despite his off-field issues. He’s their offense.
The Dolphins’ divorce with Tyreek would be more punitive than the marriage to Tyreek.
