New polling from Christopher Newport University shows former Del. Jay Jones is leading Republican incumbent Jason Miyares in the Virginia attorney general’s race 49% to 43%, but recent scandals leave room for Republicans to shift that pendulum.
The poll was conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 1, before news broke Friday about texts sent in 2022 by Jones, in which he described a scenario of hypothetical violence against then-Virginia Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert and his children.
Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director at the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at CNU, said the text scandal could impact the attorney general’s race but is unlikely to negatively affect other Democrats.
“This is an issue that has been elevated to the national media coverage, so maybe that will kind of break through,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “If you’re a voter that’s voting for Jones because you think that he will be a pressure against Trump, then this may not have any impact whatsoever on your vote choice in that race, so we’ll have to see.”
While Republicans have criticized other Virginia Democratic candidates for not demanding Jones drop out of the race, Bromley-Trujillo said Jones’ scandal is unlikely to tip the outcome of other state races where polling puts Democrats in the lead.
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The survey of 805 respondents is the second round of polling from the university. It has a 3.9-point margin of error.
The poll also shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 52% to 42% among likely voters in the Virginia governor’s race. A poll released Sept. 18 showed Spanberger leading by 12 points. Bromley-Trujillo said the lead largely stems from independent voters, where Spanberger leads 49% to 37%.
That’s a smaller margin than the 55% of independent voters who previously indicated they would vote for Spanberger compared with 37% for Earle-Sears. Bromley-Trujillo said both have strong holds with their respective parties as many partisan voters are “coming home” as Election Day nears, and Earle-Sears is running out of time to close up the independent voter gap.
“This does make it more difficult for Earle-Sears to gain ground and surpass (Spanberger) in the about four weeks that we have left,” Bromley-Trujillo said. “It’s not out of the question, and events can happen between now and then that change the outcome.”
The poll shows Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican John Reid 48% to 39% in the race for lieutenant governor, with and 12% undecided.
Virginia typically votes against the party in control of the White House, and this election will act as a referendum on Republicans, including President Donald Trump and Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Bromley-Trujillo said. Youngkin has a 50% approval rating with a 42% disapproval, while Trump’s rates are 41% approval and 56% disapproval.
The most important issue to Virginia voters is a threat to democracy at 19%, which overtook inflation for the top issue compared with the previous poll.
Other important issues to voters include inflation, immigration and health care, which jumped into the top five for this poll. Crime also was a higher-priority issue among Republicans. Top priorities among independents also largely matched Democrats, including threats to democracy, inflation and health care.
Bromley-Trujillo attributed the shifts in priorities to national discussions such as recent political violence, potential health insurance subsidy increases and the government shutdown.
She added this poll included transgender policy in its list of issues for voters to show they prioritize after Earle-Sears has leaned into the topic in recent advertisements. The poll found 6% of Republicans saw it as a top issue, 3% of independents and no Democrats.
Voters believe Spanberger would better handle all of the poll’s 12 listed issues.
“All of the issues so far, Spanberger is leading on, so we’ll have to see if that continues to be the case as we move through the election,” Bromley-Trujillo said.
Spanberger and Earle-Sears are set to debate Thursday at Norfolk State University. Early voting is underway and Election Day is Nov. 4.
Devlin Epding, 757-510-4037, devlin.epding@virigniamedia.com
