The end of summer brings an acceleration of activities, including internationally the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, held Aug. 31 to Sept. 1 at the seaside in Tianjin, China. This coalition was established in 2001 around the China-Russia axis to create cohesion and coordination among broadly congenial nation-states.
The Shanghai group’s formation is best viewed as an effort to counter the expanding U.S. influence in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union a decade earlier.
States of Central Asia, India, Iran and Pakistan are members. North Korea’s leader was in the city by invitation of Beijing. Southeast Asia nations were also present this year, reflecting China’s priorities.
Noteworthy is the role of India.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping both spoke on Sunday, signaling a new potentially important rapprochement.
The U.S. has also been active institutionally. “The Quad,” the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue reestablished in 2017, brings together leaders from Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. Quad leaders meet annually.
China accuses Quad nations of trying to replicate NATO. That analogy neglects the great distances and associated challenges of the Asia theatre. NATO ties together largely contiguous nations of Europe, along with North America.
Reinforcing the geographic realities, important differences in histories characterize the Quad. Nonetheless, the enormous growth of China’s military, in particular the maritime dimension, provides a powerful incentive for this allied cooperation.
The administration of former President Barack Obama declared Asia a priority concern for defense policy. This reflects the threat from China, and more generally the expanding strategic importance of the region.
Since the mid-1980s, the total volume of U.S. trade with Asia has been larger than with Europe. In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the end of the Cold War, international relations have become more flexible – and unpredictable.
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is an ambitious organizational initiative to provide policy coordination among the Pacific nations. APEC was conceived by Australia’s Prime Minister Bob Hawke and embraced enthusiastically by President George H.W. Bush and Secretary of State James Baker.
Australia over the past several decades has moved in the direction of free markets, and a much more explicit national commitment to tolerance, directly reflected in official policy toward indigenous populations. The Obama administration’s decision to station a U.S. Marine contingent in Australia underscores the strong bilateral ties between the two nations, dating back to World War II.
The 2006 APEC summit was held in Vietnam. The gathering highlighted the nation’s economic growth, and commitment to multilateralism. Similar to China, economic realities forced ideological change.
Hanoi honored U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and our government with a parade, complete with American flags – an ironic as well as poignant gesture.
The Pacific region generally lacks the complex established network of economic and military organizations defining Atlantic-area relationships. For this reason especially, APEC and the Quad are significant.
For decades, Cold War division defined relationships among nations. Today, economic incentives and related self-interest undermine longstanding ideological and strategic differences. India-China collaboration is a direct reaction to high punitive tariffs unilaterally imposed by the U.S. administration in Washington D.C.
China’s tremendous economic growth is a powerful alliance and investment magnet and source of influence. Economic incentives undermine political differences.
At the same time, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other Asian nations have strongly embraced democracy and free markets. The United States has great advantages as well.
Our main challenge today is to maintain multilateral diplomacy and self-discipline.
Arthur I. Cyr is the author of “After the Cold War” (Macmillan/Palgrave and NYU Press), and other books.
Contact acyr@carthage.edu
