Consumer Prices ‘Deflated’ Most Since COVID Lockdowns In June; Core Prices Continue To Rise

Consumer Prices ‘Deflated’ Most Since COVID Lockdowns In June; Core Prices Continue To Rise

Expectations for more ‘evidence’ of a return to disinflationary trends were high heading into today’s CPI and they were more than satisfied by a 0.1% MoM decline in headline consumer prices in June (below the +0.1% MoM exp) – the biggest MoM drop since May 2020. That pulled the headline YoY CPI down to +3.0%…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the third consecutive ‘miss’ for CPI – prompting calls for July rate-cuts – with 3m and 6m annualized inflation declining…

A deflation in Energy costs and core goods dominated the data in June…

Core CPI also ‘missed’, rising just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.2% exp), dragging the YoY Core CPI down to +3.27% – its lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods deflation also dominates core prices disinflationary trend…

We do note that Core consumer prices have still not seen a single monthly decline since Bidenomics began.

Core consumer prices are up just under 18% since Bidenomics began (+4.9% per annum) – that is dramatically higher than the 2.0% per annum Americans experienced under Trump…

Core consumer prices have never been higher.

The much-watched SuperCore CPI rose on a MoM basis but declined (back below 5.0%) on a YoY basis (but obviously remains extremely elevated)…

Source: Bloomberg

Transportation Services are seeing prices fall…

Removing auto insurance would cut SuperCore CPI in half… if only we didn’t actually have to pay that!

Finally, we can’t help but get a sense of deja vu all over again here. What if… The Fed cuts (because bad – recession – data), Biden loses (because dementia), and inflation re-accelerates (just like in the 80s)…

Source: Bloomberg

Who do you think gets the blame for the re-inflation? Well, ‘economists’ have already begun claiming Trump’s tariff plan will prompt spiralling higher prices… so we have our answer.

There are no coincidences in Washington.. or Washington-based data.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/11/2024 – 08:39

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-prices-deflated-most-covid-lockdowns-june-core-prices-continue-rise