The weirdness of post-expansion ACC football began in 2005, when the worst Florida State team in more than two decades, unranked and saddled with four losses, upset No. 5 Virginia Tech in the conference’s inaugural championship game.
Thus began a spell when anarchy ruled primarily in the Atlantic Division. Wake Forest and Boston College deposed FSU, and in 2008, each of the division’s six teams finished 5-3 or 4-4 in league play.
To which the Coastal Division said: Hold my beer.
Coastal chaos was born in 2012, when Georgia Tech won the division with a 5-3 mark, 6-6 overall. What followed was a parody of parity as seven different programs — the original six and newcomer Pitt — prevailed in successive years.
But for sheer lunacy and confusion in a single season, 2025 could stand alone, and in a repeat of history, expansion is the provocateur.
With three weeks remaining in the regular season, there is a plausible road to a seven-team cluster atop the standings at 6-2 among Virginia, Georgia Tech, SMU, Pitt, Duke, Louisville and Miami.
More conceivable is a three-way tie at 7-1 among SMU, the winner of Saturday’s Virginia-Duke game and the winner of Pitt-Georgia Tech on Nov. 22.
How would the league resolve the ties and determine which teams qualify for the ACC championship game Dec. 6 in Charlotte? Is any team a lock for the title game if it wins out? Is the ACC champ truly guaranteed a College Football Playoff bid?
Let’s explore.
Who’s in charge?
Two weeks ago, the answer was easy. Virginia and Georgia Tech were the only ACC teams sans a conference loss and, since they don’t play one another in the regular season, were tracking toward a collision in Charlotte.
But then NC State ambushed the Yellow Jackets, and Wake Forest upset the Cavaliers, creating the November logjam that felt inevitable when the ACC expanded to 17 football members last year with the additions of Cal, Stanford and SMU.
Now UVA, Georgia Tech, SMU, Pitt and Duke have one conference loss. Louisville and Miami have two. The beauty is, each of those teams has at least one remaining contest against a fellow contender, which in theory will lend some clarity.
Five teams are tied in the loss column atop the ACC football standings.
The clearest road to Charlotte belongs to Georgia Tech, with Virginia and Duke not far behind.
If the Yellow Jackets defeat Boston College and Pitt, the worst they can do is a three-way tie with SMU and the Virginia-Duke winner. In either case, the ACC’s tiebreaker policy favors Georgia Tech, with records versus common opponents decisive.
The only common opponent in a Georgia Tech/SMU/Virginia tie would be Wake Forest. Since the Jackets beat the Deacons, and the Mustangs and Cavaliers lost, Georgia Tech would qualify.
Virginia and SMU would then start the tiebreakers anew to determine Georgia Tech’s opponent. The Cavaliers and Mustangs do not play one another and have identical records against common opponents, which would send us to the combined ACC winning percentage of each team’s league opponents.
At present, that calculation favors UVA.
The common opponents in a Georgia Tech/SMU/Duke deadlock at 7-1 would be Clemson, Syracuse and Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets and Blue Devils would be 3-0, the Mustangs 2-1, sending Georgia Tech and Duke to the championship game.
An equally clean tiebreaker emerges if Virginia, Pitt and SMU finish 7-1. Their common opponents are Stanford and Louisville. UVA and SMU would have beaten both, while Pitt lost to Louisville, sending the Cavaliers and Mustangs to Charlotte.
A 7-1 deadlock among Duke, SMU and Pitt would be messier, with Syracuse their lone common opponent and all three having defeated the Orange. Combined record of conference opponents likely would qualify Duke for the championship game, while SMU would prevail in the subsequent tiebreaker with Pitt on the strength of record versus common opponents.
Perfect storm
So, about the aforementioned potential for a seven-way tie at 6-2. Here’s the path:
Miami and Louisville win their remaining ACC games — the Canes over NC State, Virginia Tech and Pitt, the Cardinals over Clemson and SMU. Pitt defeats Georgia Tech, SMU bests Cal, and Georgia Tech tops Boston College.
Also: Virginia wins at Duke but stumbles against Virginia Tech, while Duke then sweeps North Carolina and Wake Forest. Or, UVA loses at Duke and beats Virginia Tech, while Duke then splits against UNC and Wake Forest.
The seven-team pile-up would come down to the combined conference records of everyone’s ACC opponents, a calculation that to date favors Louisville and Duke.
Quarterback Haynes King and Georgia Tech have the clearest path to the ACC championship game. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard)
Playoff implications
A common misconception is that the champions of the Power Four conferences automatically qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff, with one bid reserved for the top-rated Group of Five conference winner.
The reality is, the field includes the five league champions ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next seven teams in the ratings regardless of conference affiliation.
In most years, perhaps including 2025, the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC champions will be among the five highest-rated league winners. But if any power conference is in peril this season, it’s the ACC.
For example, if Duke were to emerge as the league’s champ at 9-4, or even 10-3, the selection committee might prefer the winners of the Sun Belt (say a 12-1 James Madison) and American (imagine a 12-1 North Texas or 11-2 South Florida or Tulane).
Such a scar for any power conference would linger indefinitely.
Run the gauntlet
College football’s most influential team this month might well be Pittsburgh, which closes the regular season against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami. The Panthers are 5-0 since freshman Mason Heintschel took over at quarterback, but those victories were against opponents with a combined ACC record of 6-25.
Save the date
Here are the remaining games that match teams among the ACC’s top seven.
Nov. 15: Virginia at Duke.
Nov. 22: Pitt at Georgia Tech; Louisville at SMU.
Nov. 29: Miami at Pitt.
The last-resort tiebreaker, by the way, is a draw administered by ACC commissioner Jim Phillips or his designee. Hey, if the NBA can turn its draft lottery into a television event, why not the ACC?
David Teel, david.teel@virginiamedia.com
