Virginia was not among the 49 teams that received votes in the Associated Press preseason college football top 25. Nor was Vanderbilt.
The Cavaliers are No. 16 this week, their highest ranking since 2007. The Commodores are No. 10, their loftiest position since 1947.
Those same preseason ratings ordained No. 2 Penn State, No. 4 Clemson, No. 13 South Carolina and No. 15 Florida as College Football Playoff contenders. Each is 3-4, and the Nittany Lions and Gators have fired their respective head coaches, James Franklin and Billy Napier.
Intuition told us that athlete compensation and annual free agency would create additional parity, but the first eight weeks of this season have unveiled a universal fragility that few, if any, envisioned.
Amid this unprecedented chaos, UVA is a testament to patience and investment.
The Cavaliers have not had a winning season since 2019, tied with Cal for the ACC’s longest such drought. But administrators led by former UVA President Jim Ryan and current athletic director Carla Williams exercised patience with Tony Elliott and his coaching staff, while also providing resources to upgrade facilities and, most important, the roster.
But that wasn’t, isn’t and won’t be enough. Player evaluation is paramount.
And not just talent evaluation. In the speed-dating world that is transfer recruiting, staffs must determine on the fly whether a prospect’s talent, disposition and background fit their roster puzzle.
As Florida State shows, the risk-reward quotient is off the charts.
The Seminoles’ 2023 ACC champs teemed with transfer hits such as defensive end Jared Verse, defensive tackle Braden Fiske, running back Trey Benson and receiver Keon Coleman. But since, Florida State coach Mike Norvell and his staff have busted in the portal.
DJ Uiagalelei was a misfit at quarterback last season, and Tommy Castellanos has been the same thus far in 2025, sinking the Seminoles to unfathomable depths. They are 1-11 in ACC play since suing the conference in December, 2023 — karma has a nasty bite — and Saturday fell as a 17½ -point favorite at Stanford.
Things are so bad that Monday, with fans outraged by a nine-game ACC losing streak and calling for Norvell’s exit, AD Mike Alford issued a statement saying a “comprehensive assessment of the program will be completed at season’s end.”
‘AT SEASON’S END’@FloridaState AD Michael Alford releases statement saying FSU will complete “comprehensive assessment” of the football program “at season’s end.”
“We are fully committed to helping Coach Norvell and the 2025 Seminoles strongly rebound in the coming weeks.” pic.twitter.com/26RC2GkmN9
— Warchant.com (@Warchant) October 20, 2025
And to think that Florida State opened the season by thumping Alabama, which hasn’t lost since and appears to be playoff-bound. But after subsequent routs of overmatched East Texas A&M and Kent State, the Seminoles lost a double-overtime classic at Virginia.
Here’s where fragility enters the equation.
With only a 12-game regular season, no sport prompts more overreaction among fans, media and, try as they might to resist, players and coaches. How rosters, flipped yearly and therefore lacking traditional bonds, respond to the inevitable speedbumps often determines a season’s fate.
As former UVA basketball coach Tony Bennett often said: “Find players you can lose with.”
That’s the genius of Ohio State 2024. Flushing a brutal home setback to Michigan in their regular-season finale, the Buckeyes defeated four top-10 opponents in the CFP, all by double-digits, to win the national championship.
On the heels of its defeat at Virginia last month, Florida State had the scheduling misfortune to encounter quality opponents in Miami and Pitt. With no chance to exhale post-UVA, the Seminoles dropped those home contests by a combined nine points to set the stage for last week’s flop at Stanford.
Contrast FSU’s plight to Virginia, where Elliott and his assistants, armed with the requisite payroll, landed subsequently productive transfers led by quarterback Chandler Morris, running backs J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee, receivers Cam Ross and Jahmal Edrine, defensive backs Devin Neal, Donavon Platt and Ja’son Prevard, linebacker Maddox Marcellus and defensive linemen Mitchell Melton, Daniel Rickert and Fisher Camac.
Unlike Florida State, the Cavaliers had the luxury of decompressing after their first setback, at NC State in Week 2. Next on the docket were home dates with William & Mary and Stanford, the softest two-game stretch of the year.
The great unknown is what would have transpired had Virginia lost to Florida State.
Would the Cavaliers have maintained their confidence, in one another and their coaches, to survive more OT drama at Louisville and last week’s scare from Washington State? Might the Seminoles have avoided their ongoing four-game slide and the accompanying speculation about Norvell’s job security?
David Teel: Party like it’s 1995! UVA takes down No. 8 Florida State
Virginia’s 22-20 victory Saturday was yet another example of how paper thin most teams’ margin for error is. Playing in the Eastern time zone for the second consecutive week, Washington State was a 17-point underdog, but thanks largely to a sleepy Cavaliers’ offense again operating with line compromised by injury, the Cougars led 20-10 entering the fourth quarter.
If Wazzu, a 3-4 squad with a first-year head coach in Jimmy Rogers, can lead deep into the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium, UVA (6-1, 3-0 ACC) can take no opponent lightly, including this week at North Carolina (2-4, 0-2), where Bill Belichick and his cronies badly misjudged the transfer market.
At their best, the Cavaliers are absolutely capable of qualifying for the ACC championship game at 11-1 or 10-2. They rank ninth nationally in scoring at 40 points per game, are among just five Bowl Subdivision teams yet to lose a fumble and are a Morris interception at NC State away from being 7-0.
Virginia is also a handful of plays away from being 3-4.
“I like it as a coach because it gives me the opportunity to keep challenging them to chase their best game,” Elliott said during his postgame gabfest Saturday, “because I still don’t think that our football team, as a whole, has played its best game in all three phases for four quarters.”
David Teel, david.teel@virginiamedia.com