Largest victory margin. Most points per possession. Fewest turnovers. Other-worldly assist-to-turnover ratio. Zero transition points allowed.
By any measure, Saturday’s 82-63 victory over Wake Forest was Virginia Tech’s most convincing ACC performance this season. Neo Avdalas (17 points, seven assists, no turnovers) had his most productive game since early January, and five teammates, including the ever-reliable Amani Hansberry, also scored in double figures.
But if the Hokies are to barge into the NCAA Tournament, they must replicate that quality against more challenging opposition — perhaps multiple times.
They don’t have to win by 19 points, average 1.35 points per possession or record 19 assists with a paltry five turnovers. But with a full week to prepare for Saturday’s test at No. 18 North Carolina, Tech desperately needs a reasonable facsimile thereof, and perhaps again in the regular-season finale March 7 at No. 11 Virginia.
“I think we’ve got some very positive parts to our background, or résumé, whatever you want to call the damn thing,” Hokies coach Mike Young said of his team’s NCAA Tournament credentials. “But certainly, have more work to do and have a tremendous opportunity staring us in the face.”
Indeed, with three games remaining — a home date with Boston College sits between the Carolina and UVA trips — before the conference tournament, Tech (18-10, 8-9 ACC) is squarely on the NCAA bubble.
Close impressively and likely collect one of the 37 at-large bids to the 68-team field. Limp to the finish and settle for the National Invitation Tournament, relegation that would qualify as a considerable disappointment.
The Hokies’ rankings in the three results-based metrics that the selection committee evaluates — Kevin Pauga, Basketball Power Index and Wins Above Bubble — range from 40-52. Much the same can be said for other contenders such as Indiana, Ohio State and Cal.
Tech’s NET rating, the committee’s four-quadrant, primary sorting tool, is No. 50, and none of its setbacks is classified outside the top two quadrants. A 2-8 Quad 1 record is problematic, but North Carolina and Virginia will be Quad 1 games.
No matter your college basketball consumption habits, you’re bombarded with daily, if not hourly, bracket updates. My friend Patrick Stevens, whose projections are astute and appear on the website of North Carolina podcasters Joe Ovies and Joe Giglio, takes a more measured approach in February, allowing results to marinate for a few days.
But his latest bracket, updated Monday, has Virginia Tech as the first team excluded from the field.
“The Hokies have the sort of profile that looks perfectly borderline in late February but would leave them four or five spots outside the field once some bid snatchers get to work in conference tournaments,” Stevens wrote.
The leagues most prone to thievery are the Atlantic 10 and Mid-American, where Saint Louis and Miami University, respectively, are poised to claim at-large bids if they stumble in the conference tournament.
Young doesn’t address such postseason speculation with his players but understands they read and listen.
“They’re human,” he said. “They see it. How could they not? It’s everywhere. It’s plastered on every ESPN website, whatever it might be.”
Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes, a close friend of Young’s, empathizes.
“It’s miserable,” he said of life on the bubble. “It’s hard for them to block out the noise. They’ve spent their entire life on social media. I haven’t, so it’s not as hard for me. … There’s so much pressure on every game. Every game’s like do or die, and I’ve experienced it a lot here. It’s a good thing because your team’s right there to be in the tournament, but it’s a hard pressure to handle.
“I’ve done it both ways. I’ve tried to talk to them about it. I’ve tried not to talk to them about it, but at the end of the day, when they leave the building, they’re going to do what they do with that phone or their computer, and they’re gonna see it.”
North Carolina center Henri Veesaar (13) shoots over Syracuse forward William Kyle III (42) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026, in Syracuse, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
Among the last four teams selected last year, despite a 1-12 Quad 1 record, North Carolina has no such worries this season. Behind a career-high 30 points from senior guard Seth Trimble, the Tar Heels (22-6, 10-5) defeated Louisville 77-74 on Monday, running their home record to 16-0.
Carolina is the only team to win at Virginia this season and the only ACC squad to topple No. 1 Duke.
The Tar Heels are 3-1 since losing their best player, freshman forward Caleb Wilson, indefinitely to a broken left hand. Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson has replaced Wilson in Hubert Davis’ starting lineup, teaming with Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar on an imposing front line.
“He’s averaging 20 points a game, he’s a special person,” Young said of Wilson. “I hope he’s back quickly, for his sake and for Hubert’s sake. Wouldn’t bother me (though) if I didn’t have to play against him Saturday, I can tell you that much.”
The Hokies have lost nine consecutive games at the Smith Center since winning in their maiden voyage there, an 81-80 overtime victory in 2007. Their chances of ending that drought would be enhanced if Tyler Johnson, shelved since December with a foot injury, returns.
But even if he doesn’t, Young doesn’t want to hear excuses. Not about injuries. Not about resource disparities. Not in late February with an NCAA Tournament bid hanging in the balance.
“You’re expected to win games,” Young said. “You should be expected to win games.”
David Teel, david.teel@virginiamedia.com
