Options abound as ACC athletic directors prepare for a Monday meeting to discuss the conference’s future football scheduling model. Eight league games, plus at least two nonconference dates with Power Four peers? Nine league contests, plus at least one Power Four in the nonconference? And if the latter, how to make the math work?
As those questions percolate, this much appears clear: College Football Playoff inclusion, more than ever, is going to hinge largely on schedule strength, and toward that end, having 10 Power Four opponents among your dozen regular-season games will border on imperative for the 68 power-conference programs, including independent Notre Dame.
The central issue for ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, senior associate commissioner for football Michael Strickland and league athletic directors is how best to arrive at 10. For the collective 17-team membership, the answer is not easy.
Hastening this discussion, and Monday’s in-person meeting at the ACC’s Charlotte headquarters, was the SEC’s late-August decision to shift from eight to nine conference games. The move aligns the SEC with the Big Ten and Big 12, leaving the ACC as the lone Power Four league playing eight conference games.
Given that a majority of SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 programs also play at least one Power Four nonconference opponent — the Big Ten’s Penn State, Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern, Washington and Rutgers, the Big 12’s Baylor and Texas Tech, and the SEC’s Ole Miss are the exceptions this season — 10 power-conference games total are going to become routine.
That distinction becomes more important after this August announcement from the CFP, which just so happened — wink, wink — to come one day prior to the SEC’s nine-game proclamation: “The current schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents.”
This was not an edict from the CFP that power conferences play nine league games. As playoff executive director Rich Clark told me this month: “I couldn’t even envision us mandating what happens in the regular season. That is strictly in the lane of our commissioners and the athletic directors and the coaches to really determine what their regular season looks like, and then we determine based on that who the best teams in the country are. That is our job. We do not take a role in shaping the regular season directly.”
But the message from the CFP is unmistakable: Play a soft schedule at your own peril.
Indeed, Power Four schools, which are blessed with far more resources than others, that insist on a bland nonconference diet should just resign from the club and make room for more serious programs that aspire to Power Four membership.
So, let’s explore how the ACC might get to 10 power conference opponents, with a decision possible at next month’s annual fall meetings.
EIGHT+TWO
On paper, this is the path of least resistance. Moreover, Clemson and Florida State, the ACC’s legal antagonists until March’s out-of-court settlement, strongly prefer it.
But the realities could prove complex for administrators and confusing for fans.
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville would have no problems adhering to a formal 8+2 standard. They already have traditional regular-season finales against in-state rivals from the SEC — South Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky, respectively — leaving them just one P4 nonconference opponent to schedule.
Georgia Tech, Clemson and FSU already play 10 power conference opponents most every season, and with an upcoming 12-game series with Notre Dame, the Tigers will for the foreseeable future.
But what about the ACC’s other 13 programs? With the SEC moving to nine league games, is there enough available nonconference inventory for ACC schools to sustain 8+2?
For example, Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and NC State have future home-and-home series scheduled against South Carolina. But are the Gamecocks, now obligated to nine SEC games plus the annual Clemson rivalry, going to play 11 P4 opponents? Or, might they cancel those contracts?
Similarly, what are the odds that Alabama, confronting a ninth SEC clash, elects to retain scheduled games for 2030 versus Georgia Tech AND Notre Dame, for 2031 against Georgia Tech AND Boston College, and for 2034 versus Virginia Tech AND Boston College?
If some of those contests vanished, would enough Big Ten and Big 12 programs be willing to play ACC squads to sustain 8+2?
If not, would we see more “nonconference” home-and-homes among ACC schools that don’t count in the league standings? Virginia and NC State have such a series this season and next, as did North Carolina and Wake Forest in 2019 and ’21.
Confused yet?
Oh, we’re just getting started.
NINE+ONE
Strickland best described the ACC’s nine-game conundrum when we spoke during the league’s preseason media gathering in July.
“The math doesn’t math,” he said. “Seventeen (teams) times nine (games), divided by two, yields a half of a number. So, someone’s left without a chair when the music stops.”
The SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 have no such nine-game dilemma because they have even numbers of teams: 16, 18 and 16, respectively. Multiply an even number by an odd number, then divide by two, and you get a whole number.
Resolving the math would require unprecedented contortions by the ACC.
Officials could allow, say, Clemson, Florida State and Georgia Tech to remain at eight conference games, while the remaining 14 went to nine. But how would the league break logjams in the standings among teams that didn’t play the same number of conference games?
What if the final spot in the ACC championship game came down to a pair of teams that didn’t meet during the regular season and finished 8-1 and 7-1, respectively, in the league? Do you punish the latter, and possibly superior, team for having elected to play eight conference games? Do you use metrics or polls?
Regardless, it would be messy.
Clemson running back Travis Etienne (9) runs the ball against Notre Dame safety Shaun Crawford (20) during the first half of the Atlantic Coast Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)
If the ACC majority risked the ire of Clemson and Florida State and mandated nine league contests for all, would one, three, or all five of Notre Dame’s contracted games versus ACC opponents count in the conference standings to make the math work?
And what to make of the stubbornly independent Irish? At 0-2, their playoff hopes rest on winning their final 10 regular-season games.
Yet if they were in the ACC, they could conceivably reach the conference title game at 9-3 and earn an automatic CFP berth with a victory. Such was Clemson’s playoff route last year.
But despite the potential for diminished CFP access, and despite the rousing success for all concerned that was Notre Dame’s 2020, pandemic-induced, ACC cameo, the university has no interest in forgoing independence.
The irony is, if the ACC pivots to a nine-game league schedule, the Irish could play a central role in which teams play for the conference championship.
David Teel, david.teel@virginiamedia.com
