TAMPA — Their record is perfect, and yet they need to be better.
Sounds a little strange, doesn’t it? Like a burp in the middle of a pep rally. At 3-0, the Bucs are off to their best start in 20 years and have excelled by playing smart, aggressive and clutch football.
It’s even more remarkable when you consider they have played, at various times, without three starting offensive linemen (and one backup), three of their top four receivers, a starting defensive tackle and a blocking tight end. Every team has injuries, but that’s practically an epidemic.
So, heck yeah, the Bucs deserved every ovation they heard during the home opener at Raymond James Stadium last week.
And yet, things may quickly go sideways. I wouldn’t say it’s inevitable, but it’s going to be hard to avoid.
Beginning this weekend, the Bucs play the Super Bowl champion Eagles, followed by road games in Seattle and Detroit sandwiched around a home game against the 49ers. Those four teams have combined to go 11-2 this season, and one of those losses was when the Seahawks and 49ers played each other.
By contrast, the three teams Tampa Bay has beaten this season are 1-8. And the Bucs have won those three games by a combined six points.
Getting a queasy feeling yet?
Sure, this may sound like a kick in the pom-poms, but it’s more of a warning shot. Things can change quickly in this league, and Bucs fans know that as well as anyone. In the last three seasons, the Bucs have gotten off to 3-1, 3-1 and 2-1 starts. They immediately followed by going 1-5, 0-4 and 1-4.
Granted, this is a new year and a better Tampa Bay roster. Nothing that took place the last three seasons has a major bearing on 2025. These Bucs do not appear to have a glaring weakness, and their confidence is high.
But that still does not change these two truths:
This team is beat up, and the schedule is about to turn brutal.
The Bucs are struggling to run the ball on offense, and the defense has a middle-of-the-road quality to it. Remarkably, the offense has yet to turn the ball over, and yet it has taken last-minute drives to win all three games against inferior opponents.
Too harsh? Maybe, but it’s better than blind faith in a propitious start.
“You always have to play better, and you want to play better as the season goes along,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said. “You never apologize for winning ball games, so we don’t do that at all, but we know we’ve got things to clean up.”
Right now, the Bucs are No. 17 in scoring defense and No. 13 in scoring offense. That doesn’t sound like a team in need of engravers.
The caveat is we have not yet seen this group at full strength, particularly on offense. The 2024 Bucs finished No. 4 in the NFL in scoring average and, theoretically, should be better this season. They returned every starter and hit the lottery with Emeka Egbuka in the draft.
The one major change is Josh Grizzard at offensive coordinator, and we do not yet have enough evidence to assess his promise as a play-caller. All we know for sure is he deserves kudos for navigating through the first three games with a makeshift offensive line that has forced the Bucs to play a more conservative style of offense with Baker Mayfield getting rid of the ball faster than any quarterback in the NFL this season other than Patrick Mahomes.
Grizzard said it’s not so much a change in philosophy as a deeper dive into the playbook.
“We still want to be multiple and be able to run it and throw it and put the pressure on the defense,” Grizzard said. “It’s just more of being multiple (in terms of): What’s that guy’s skill set? If, say, you’re not as fast, [we’re] not throwing a bunch of go balls versus if he’s a very strong route-runner, can we get some more contested catches and feel like he’s going to be open on that?
“But I wouldn’t say it limits it from a volume aspect in terms of going into a game plan each week.”
There are two ways of looking at this:
On the one hand, the Bucs did exactly what they needed to do to slip past three middling opponents and stake an early claim at the top of the NFC South. That’s the charitable view. If you’re more coldhearted, the Bucs relied on good fortune and still need to prove they’re among the NFL’s elite.
That’s what the next four weeks are all about.
Win three of four, and the Bucs are legit Super Bowl contenders. Split the four games, and they did what was necessary while slowly getting closer to full strength. Win one of the four, and they’ll still have some convincing to do.
