Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Dips As Spending Tumbles Most In 4 Years

February 28, 2025

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Dips As Spending Tumbles Most In 4 Years

After hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI (and various survey-based inflation expectations), today brings the Big Kahuna – The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE – which is expected to show a dovish downturn (from +2.8% YoY to +2.6% YoY). And that is exactly what happened with headline PCE rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and Core up 0.3% MoM (as expected). That pushed the YoY shifts lower on a sequential basis (Core PCE YoY at its lowest since June 2024)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM jump in headline PCE since April 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

The so-called SuperCore PCE (Services ex-shelter) rose 0.2% MoM, dragging the YoY print down to 3.09% – its lowest since Feb 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of today’s data binge, Personal Spending tumbled 0.2% MoM in January (+0.2% MoM exp) even as incomes soared 0.9% MoM (+0.4% exp). That is the biggest drop in spending since Feb 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Sending the savings rate soaring as it appears Democrats refuse to spend in the new Trump 2.0 world (after all those revisions)…

Where did the sudden jump in incomes come from? Why, the dear old government of course – transfer payments spiked over $80BN…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that PCE was the only one of the ‘hard’ inflation indices to drop in January…

Source: Bloomberg

How long can The Fed rely on this gauge with liquidity rebounding?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/28/2025 – 08:41

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-dips-spending-tumbles-most-4-years

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