GAINESVILLE — For many in the Swamp, Florida’s homecoming visit from Mississippi State will be a nod to bygone days, including a football program in decline in Year 4 under Billy Napier.
The Gators haven’t taken the step forward as expected, with a case to be made the program has regressed. Picked to finish sixth in the SEC and ranked 15th in the preseason AP Top 25, UF (2-4, 1-2 SEC) enters the season’s second half playing for pride, a lower-tier bowl bid and a future without Napier.
The 46-year-old enters Saturday’s matchup against much-improved Mississippi State (4-2, 0-2) aiming to deliver a win, even as his time in Gainesville nears an end.
Any questions about Saturday’s matchup begin with Florida’s future at head coach.
Is this Napier’s last game with the Gators?
Napier’s days at UF are numbered whatever happens Saturday. But a loss as 10-point favorites at home against a program among the SEC’s bottom feeders would likely force athletic director Scott Stricklin to move on. Even a win might not prevent a bye week firing, rather than risk Florida somehow going on a run as the schedule eases a bit.
Stricklin, who recently received a contract extension through 2030, delivered a vote of confidence for his embattled coach. At this point, UF’s AD has surely seen enough evidence that Napier isn’t delivering championships.
A Sept. 6 home loss to USF raised red flags. Subsequent defeats in three of four games continued to highlight Napier’s predictable play calling, inability to counter adjustments and his poor game management.
Napier has, however, shown the ability to rally his players to fight.
Effort and determination were not enough to overcome DJ Lagway’s five interceptions at No. 3 LSU or Miami and Texas A&M’s advantages on the lines of scrimmage. But Lagway has steadily improved, aided by true freshman receiver Dallas Wilson’s return during an Oct. 4 win against Texas.
Miami and A&M also could be the nation’s top two teams. Meanwhile, Georgia and Ole Miss, the two remaining Top 10 teams on UF’s schedule, appear vulnerable. A Nov. 8 visit to Kentucky is winnable, as are visits from Tennessee (Nov. 22) and Florida State (Nov. 29).
Win or lose Saturday, the best course of action might be the inevitable one.
Florida head coach Billy Napier is 21-23 with the Gators, but his team has won six of its past seven home games. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Will homecoming turn ugly?
Homecoming crowds tend to be different.
UF welcomes back many alums for their only trip of the year to the Swamp, looking to make the day a celebration and inspire fond memories. The weather is often impeccable and the opponent beatable.
However, things don’t always go according to plan. If Napier’s offense struggles and Florida stumbles, fan frustration could turn toxic.
History is on Napier’s side. Since 2000, Florida is 20-5 in homecoming games. But there also have been some telling losses.
Dan Mullen’s 2010 Mississippi State team stunned Urban Meyer’s Gators 10-7 as his final season at UF unfolded. Vanderbilt’s 31-17 win in 2013 under James Franklin was the Commodores first in Gainesville since 1945 and one of several black marks on Will Muschamp’s resumé. A year later, Missouri hammered his team 42-12 to accelerate Muschamp’s demise.
Florida hasn’t lost a homecoming game since 2018 to Missouri, featuring Drew Locke at quarterback and Josh Heupel calling plays during Dan Mullen’s first season.
Napier’s Gators also are 6-1 in their last seven home games, including four straight wins against SEC games. Three were ranked opponents, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas. The sole loss was against USF.
Napier, a lame-duck coach who has lost the fan base, needs the Gators to rise to the occasion.
Do the Gators finally finish?
Napier’s team has faltered badly during the fourth quarter. Florida lost at Miami and Texas A&M and slipped by Texas while being outscored 30-0 amid a mix of conservative play calling, poor offensive execution and exhausted defenses.
“It’s really just digging deep is what it comes down to,” said defensive end Kamran James of Orlando.
During wins against LSU and Ole Miss last November, Florida had a 21-3 advantage during the game’s final minutes as the run game took over and the defense made plays.
Last Saturday at Texas A&M, the Gators had the ball just 3:27 in he fourth quarter as the Aggies outscored them 10-0.
Failed conversions of fourth-and-6 at Texas A&M and fourth-and-3 at Miami early in the fourth quarter were pivotal.
“When you keep your defense out there that long toward the end, they’re gonna wear down — that’s on us as an offense,” tight end Hayden Hansen said.
The Gators have had the scoring edge during in the other three quarters. Their last fourth-quarter touchdown was DJ Lagway’s 4-yard pass to Tre Wilson in Week 2 against USF.
Florida quarterback DJ Lagway (2) passes during the Gators’ 34-17 loss at Texas A&M Oct. 11 at Kyle Field in College Station. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)
Can Lagway discover consistency during season’s second half?
The season is lost for Napier, but not for Lagway.
The sophomore quarterback with 13 college starts can continue to grow, build his confidence and develop chemistry with Wilson and fellow true freshman receiver Vernell Brown III.
The next coach could inherit an ideal situation if Lagway is heading in the right direction.
Lagway’s health remains an issue. A leg injury has limited him, along with the Gators’ attack.
“The more spread out you are … you’re creating gaps, but then there’s no quarterback run element,” Napier said. “When he can run, then you’re opening up another scenario where you can create plus-one plays.”
Lagway’s dual-threat abilities allowed him to rush for nearly 1,000 yards and 16 scores as a high school senior, but have been missing most of his UF career. There also have been glimpses.
A 13-yard run around right end to open last season’s 48-20 win against Kentucky immediately put the Wildcats’ defense on notice. But a hamstring injury against Georgia during UF’s next game began the current spate of injuries.
All is not lost. Lagway can continue as a pocket passer, game manager and student of the game.
The 20-year-old’s leadership is evident. After the Miami and A&M losses, he vowed publicly to play better. He has six more games to do so.
Edgar Thompson can be reached at egthompson@orlandosentinel.com
