Even though he and state lawmakers are tangled in a months-long budget stalemate, Gov. Josh Shapiro can point to strong support from Pennsylvania voters and a rising national profile almost a year before he’s up for re-election in 2026, a new poll suggests.
Sixty percent of voters say they approve of Shapiro’s performance, according to a survey of more than 1,500 Keystone State voters by Quinnipiac University. The rating marks the governor’s highest since Quinnipiac began tracking his approval in June of 2023.
The latest poll provided an early look at voters’ perspectives on the governor’s race, with Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity campaigning and gaining name recognition, and 2022 Shapiro opponent state Sen. Doug Mastriano still floating a run before Shapiro has announced a re-election bid.
Quinnipiac also highlighted Shapiro’s status as one of several Democratic leaders viewed as potential White House contenders in 2028, with respondents currently favoring the former attorney general and state representative 53%-43% over former Ohio senator and Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical general election matchup.
The poll also showed voters divided on the early tenure of Republican Sen. Dave McCormick, and Democratic Sen. John Fetterman seeing big swings in support: down from Democrats and up from Republicans.
“Governor Josh Shapiro clinches an enviable 60 percent job approval and leaves his two potential gubernatorial challengers in the rear-view mirror in a very early look at Pennsylvania’s 2026 gubernatorial race,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.
Asked about a matchup between Shapiro and Garrity, voters favored the governor 55%-39%. Shapiro is favored 56%-39% when on the ballot against Mastriano, according to the poll.
Fifty-eight percent said they had a favorable view of Shapiro, compared to 13% for Garrity, with 73% saying they have not yet heard enough about her. Twenty-three percent said they viewed Mastriano favorably, with 35% unfavorable and 41% needing to learn more.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents did not approve of Shapiro, up from a previous high of 27% in October of 2023.
But Shapiro, who has built a reputation of working across party lines, has remained popular while emphasizing a mantra of “Get [expletive] done” in a host of areas, including the economy, agriculture, energy and artificial intelligence, public safety, education, health care and more. He’s also frequently made headlines for confronting President Donald Trump in court and in public comments, and he’s increasingly made high-profile appearances and interviews in recent months.
The governor’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is 17 percentage points higher than Trump’s (43% approve, 54% disapprove). And while leading a purple swing state where Trump narrowly defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris in November, Shapiro notched strong support across the political spectrum, including from many voters who in all likelihood cast a ballot for Trump.
Ninety-three percent of Democrats approve of the job Shapiro has done since he took office in 2023, along with 66% of independents and 28% of Republicans, the poll showed.
Forty-three percent of respondents said they viewed Vance favorably, compared to 47% unfavorably. In the hypothetical matchup against Shapiro, critical independent voters would rather see the governor in the White House by a 25 percentage point margin, 58%-33%.
The poll did not ask about a potential primary between Shapiro and other Democrats seen as potential candidates, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsome, Harris, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Maryland Gov. Wesley Moore, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
“With the caveats that it’s a long way off and it’s a purely hypothetical race, native son Shapiro looks to have a healthy lead over potential opponent Vice President Vance,” Malloy said.
Garrity, a retired U.S. Army Reserve colonel and businesswoman from Bradford County, has made the governor’s potential ambitions one of the central arguments of her campaign.
Pennsylvanians “deserve a fighter who works for them, not a politician with eyes on the White House,” Garrity told supporters at a rally in McCandless last week.
The two-term treasurer and her supporters have also criticized Shapiro on the state budget delay. And they note that Garrity surpassed Shapiro’s 2022 record for most votes cast for a statewide candidate last year, receiving more than 3.5 million votes. Shapiro at the time stayed out of the race and did not endorse her Democratic opponent, Erin McClelland.
Flip on Fetterman
Fetterman, who has maintained his independence on a range of issues and votes but has committed to remaining a Democrat, saw a slight uptick in approval, with 46% approving and 38% disapproving, compared to a January 2024 poll by Quinnipiac. In that previous survey, 45% approved and 42% disapproved.
But support for the vocal former Braddock mayor and lieutenant governor marked a stark reversal along party lines compared to 2024, with Republicans increasingly favoring Fetterman more than registered voters in his own party, according to the poll.
Sixty-two percent of Republicans say they approve of how he has handled his job, compared to just 33% of Democrats — 54% of whom say they disapprove. Independents are split on his performance, 43%-43%.
A year and nine months ago, 75% of Republicans disapproved of Fetterman, while 80% of Democrats backed his efforts at the time.
“One-time Democratic darling John Fetterman flips the approval script as Republicans embrace him and Democrats give him low marks nearly two years after GOP voters wouldn’t give him the time of day,” Malloy said.
Meanwhile, slightly more voters than not approve of McCormick’s first nine-plus months in office, 39% to 35%, with more than a quarter of respondents not offering an opinion.
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