From the moment Haywood Highsmith was dealt along with a second-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets last month, the Miami Heat’s ethos entering 2025-26 became clear — payroll structure would be prioritized.
So even with Tyler Herro sidelined after Friday’s surgery to alleviate posterior impingement syndrome in his left ankle, it’s not as if a replacement is walking through that door at Kaseya Center.
Instead, with no room under the luxury tax to immediately add another player to a standard contract without an accompanying salary-shedding move, what the Heat had before Herro’s surgery likely will be what lines up for the team’s first session of training camp on Sept. 30 in Boca Raton at Florida Atlantic University.
Whether “we have enough” will remain enough to carry the day, as coach Erik Spoelstra and Heat president Pat Riley often have stressed in shorthanded times such as this, will become apparent soon enough.
But opportunity is there.
As is optionality — with the Heat saying Herro “is expected to miss around eight weeks.”
While the Heat during the preseason typically slow play any tells of impending regular-season approach, subterfuge likely will be set aside, with the six-game exhibition schedule suddenly one with unexpected meaning, for what now is unexpected recalculating.
Based on the timetable offered by the Heat, it would mean about 14 regular-season games without Herro. More likely is at least 14 games, and likely more until rhythm can be regained.
So without Herro, what?
Perhaps more to the point without Herro, who?
Norman Powell: Since the Heat swung the July coup of landing Powell at the cost of Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson, the focus was on how Powell could complement Herro in the scoring column.
Now it’s whether Powell can replace Herro’s scoring. Powell averaged 21.8 points last season with the Clippers; Herro averaged 23.9 for the Heat.
But it’s also not as simple as the Heat’s finding the 2.1-point scoring differential elsewhere. The Heat finished 24th in the NBA in scoring last season, 27th in pace. Even with Herro in the lineup, the Heat needed more. Now they need a lot more, with Powell as replacement instead of supplement.
Davion Mitchell: In the wake of the trade for Powell, the assumption was that Mitchell would revert to a bench role, his dogged defense and streak shooting providing a needed spark when Spoelstra turned to his reserves.
Now, Mitchell likely becomes the next man up in the starting lineup. While that does alleviate some of the defensive concerns of a Herro-Powell pairing, also consider that Mitchell has never averaged more than the 11.5 points he did as a Sacramento Kings rookie in 2021-22, with a 7.9 average last season and a 7.6 four-year average.
Swap in any of those Mitchell averages for Hero’s scoring last season, and you have the NBA’s worst offense — by far.
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Pelle Larsson: From the moment Larsson departed the Heat’s summer program, the thought was that more was coming from the 2024 second-round pick out of Arizona. Larsson’s play with Sweden at EuroBasket did little to dissuade such thought.
Now there has to be more, with Larsson potentially setting up as the third guard in a backcourt rotation where he previously might have been squeezed out to a ninth-man role.
Considering how Spoelstra long has opted for continuity in his rotation, Larsson as an early-season placeholder for Herro could be a possibility, in order to cement Mitchell in a sixth-man role.
Dru Smith: The Heat’s commitment to Smith has been undeniable, bringing him back after the ACL tear two seasons ago and the Achilles tear last season.
At his best, as he was before December’s season-ending injury, Smith would have set up as a reliable Herro placeholder.
But only now, as Herro begins his rehabilitation, is Smith moving through the final stages of his own recovery. Casting Smith as a Herro stand-in would seem too much, too soon.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Terry Rozier: How does one return from the abyss? Through opportunity.
For Jaquez, who endured a brutal sophomore slump last season after an All-Rookie 2023-24, and for Rozier, whose play fell off a cliff last season, opportunity could be at hand.
Of the two, figure Jaquez to be the priority, if only because of having youth and a commensurate salary in his favor.
With Rozier, there still remains the possibility that at least part of his salary is somehow maneuvered toward a roster replacement.
Kasparas Jakucionis: If the Heat had fallen into the lottery and landed an elite guard at the top of the 2025 NBA draft, then, yes, trial by fire might have been the solution in the wake of Herro’s surgery.
But taken at No. 20 out of Illinois, Jakucionis simply is not at that stage, with ample aforementioned options to help the Heat ride out Herro’s absence.
What the Heat need is to build Jakucionis’ confidence after an uneven summer league, not knock it down against an imposing early-season schedule that includes games against the Magic, Grizzlies, Knicks, Spurs, Lakers, Clippers and Nuggets.
Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Simone Fontecchio: And then there are the ancillary elements to Herro’s absence.
With Wiggins, there likely will be a need for more scoring. He averaged 19 points with the Heat after arriving from the Golden State Warriors in the Jimmy Butler trade, an increase from his 18.5 career average.
With Jovic, it is possible a move into the starting lineup becomes triggered, as a means to reinject some of the playmaking and offense lost amid Herro’s absence.
And with Fontecchio, Herro’s absence could lead to a move up the hierarchy as a means of replacing Herro’s 3-point shooting.
A two-way option: It is possible the Heat look toward more of a scoring or shooting option with their remaining vacant two-way slot, with Trevor Keels, Gabe Madsen or Jahmir Young possibilities there. But the likelihood of any receiving playing time ahead of the aforementioned wings options still would be scant.
Signing an outside option: The Heat do have enough salary-cap space below the luxury tax to sign a veteran on a non-guaranteed prorated contract for the period of Herro’s expected absence.
However, for a team with middling playoff prospects, such a move would seem rash and potentially limit salary math later during the season.
