Hurricane Melissa formed Saturday in the Caribbean and is forecast to rapidly intensify close to a Category 5 storm while moving slowly and dumping “catastrophic” amounts of rain on islands where it’s already taken a deadly toll.
The National Hurricane Center warned of flash flooding and landslides for portions of Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica through the weekend with the storm potentially dropping not just inches — but feet of rain.
At least three people were killed in Haiti with one killed and one reported missing in Dominican Republic.
“Unfortunately for places along the projected path of this storm, it is increasingly dire,” NHC deputy director Jamie Rhome said.
Hurricane Melissa forecast path as of 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. (NHC)
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. advisory, Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph — a Category 1 — located about 145 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 235 miles southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti, moving west-northwest at 1 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend out 35 miles while tropical-storm-force winds extend out 125 miles from its center.
“A slow west-northwestward or westward motion is expected today through the end of the weekend. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Philippe Papin said. “On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.”
A hurricane warning is in place for Jamaica while a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning remains in effect for southwestern Haiti.
“Rapid intensification is forecast to occur over the next 24 hours. Melissa is forecast to become … a major hurricane by Sunday,” Papin said.
Hurricane conditions could begin Saturday across the watch area in Haiti. Jamaica will feel tropical storm conditions that intensify to hurricane conditions Sunday.
“The rainfall is a huge risk with the storm,” NHC Director Michael Brennan said. “Rainfall has historically been the biggest cause of loss of life of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean.”
Excessive, life-threatening rainfall of 15-25 inches could spread across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Tuesday with some areas getting as much as 35 inches and more rainfall possible beyond Tuesday.
This infrared satellite image shows newly formed Hurricane Melissa on Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. (NOAA/GOES-East)
“Potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in southern Haiti,” Papin said.
Southeast Cuba should expect 4-8 inches of rain with some areas getting 12 inches into Tuesday, with more rain likely after.
Uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed, however, makes forecasting exact totals difficult.
Storm surge will also be dangerous in Jamaica, especially on the south coast that could see peak heights of 5 to 10 feet above ground level near and east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall, while the island is battered by large and destructive waves.
Convection bubbles asymmetrically around the central circulation of Tropical Storm Melissa.
The storm is expected to become a hurricane in the next 24 hours over the Caribbean Sea to the south of Jamaica. pic.twitter.com/oCZI0xZvQC
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) October 24, 2025
Authorities in Jamaica warned that all airports would close within 24 hours if a hurricane warning is issued. More than 650 shelters were activated. Officials said warehouses across the island were well-stocked and thousands of food packages prepositioned for quick distribution if needed.
“I urge Jamaicans to take this weather threat seriously,” Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said. “Take all measures to protect yourself.”
The hurricane center confirmed the risks in a key message Saturday afternoon.
“Jamaica prep should be completed today. Melissa’s slow motion brings multi-day damaging winds plus heavy rainfall, catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, damage, long-duration power communication outages, isolation,” the center said.
Haitian authorities said three people had died as a consequence of the hurricane and another five were injured due to a collapsed wall. There were also reports of rising river levels, flooding and a bridge destroyed due to breached riverbanks in Sainte-Suzanne, in the northeast.
“The storm is causing a lot of concern with the way it’s moving,” said Ronald Délice, a Haitian department director of civil protection, as local authorities organized lines to distribute food kits. Many residents are still reluctant to leave their homes.
The storm has damaged nearly 200 homes in the Dominican Republic and knocked out water supply systems, affecting more than half a million customers. It downed trees and traffic lights, unleashed a couple of small landslides and left more than two dozen communities isolated by floodwaters.
The Bahamas Department of Meteorology said Melissa could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to islands in the Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands by early next week.
The long-term forecast has the storm growing into a major hurricane Sunday — reaching Category 3 strength with 120 mph sustained winds and 150 mph gusts — while its path has it sliding from east to west just south of Jamaica.
It’s then forecast to grow into a strong Category 4 storm with 155 mph sustained winds — one shy of Category 5 — and 190 mph gusts with a major shift to the north that would bring it over Jamaica on Tuesday and toward Cuba by Wednesday.
Map: Will Hurricane Melissa hit Florida? Here are the latest tracking models
The National Weather Service in Melbourne is keeping watch of the system but it’s unclear what effects might come to the state.
“Melissa is expected to have no direct impacts on Florida, uncertainty when and where the storm`s closest approach will occur, and how close the low/front will be at that time, further complicates the risk for indirect impacts such as increasing winds and worsening beach/marine conditions.” the office stated in its forecasters’ discussion Saturday.
Melissa, which formed Tuesday, became the 13th tropical cyclone of the season.
Four so far have grown into hurricanes with three becoming major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
