The ever-changing landscape in the job and housing market, as well as trends in the tourism industry, were among the topics covered Wednesday during the chamber of commerce’s annual State of Greater Williamsburg presentation.
Government and business leaders gathered at the Colonial Heritage Clubhouse to hear from several experts on how activity at the national level may impact the region.
Michael Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development with Mortgage Bankers Association, said the national picture appears “troubling,” given the uncertainty of how tariffs will impact inflation, along with the government shutdown. He noted that inflation hit a 40-year high following the COVID-19 pandemic. While it leveled off, inflation has started to creep back up in recent months, thanks in part to tariffs on imported goods.
“Will it be a one time increase or a new round of increased prices, we don’t know,” Fratantoni said.
Interest rates are also affecting the housing market, with sellers reluctant to put homes on the market now that they are locked in at lower rates. This has resulted in a large inventory of houses on the market, which may lead to a decline in home prices at the national level over the next couple of years, he said.
“It’s a little too much supply all at once,” he said.
Virginia is faring better than the nation in the housing market, though an increase in property taxes and insurance is compounding the issue.
“Whether a person is renting or buying, there are some really challenging housing costs,” Fratantoni said.
The job market is also looking bleak, with 900,000 fewer jobs now than there were six months ago. A 4.7% unemployment rate at the national level is anticipated in early 2026. Virginia is also doing better than the rest of the country in the job market, but a slower hiring rate means that people looking to switch jobs or those who lose a job may struggle to find employment.
The top industry in the Historic Triangle is tourism and hospitality. Dan Roberts, vice president of research and strategy with Virginia Tourism Corporation, spoke to the trends in tourism. Visitors spent $35 billion in Virginia in 2024, with $1.35 billion spent locally. The figure was down slightly from the previous year, as the Historic Triangle was one of 31 localities in the commonwealth to experience a decline in tourism last year.
“Inflation is wreaking havoc on people’s travel budgets,” Roberts said.
Dining and lodging are among the areas in which visitors are spending the most, with $5 out of $10 spent in the Historic Triangle going toward the two. Roberts anticipates the region will see an uptick in tourism next year, with celebrations planned for America’s 250th birthday and Colonial Williamsburg’s 100th anniversary, along with the anticipated opening of the Greater Williamsburg Sports & Event Center. Indoor sports facilities in other locales have seen “tremendous success,” Roberts said.
Also during the presentation, Douglas C. Schmidt, dean of William & Mary’s School of Computing, Data Sciences & Physics, touched upon the impact of artificial intelligence on technology, society, education, the workforce and other aspects of life. While AI has become more and more integral in everyday, he said, it does pose challenges, particularly in higher education, where students entering college are more adept at using AI tools than faculty members.
“It’s both exciting and scary,” he said.
Many students now lack basic skills taught in K-12 because they are using AI as a crutch, which “is going to be a real problem,” Schmidt said. That puts an additional burden on faculty members, as they work toward “future-proofing our students for success in a tricky economy,” he said.
The State of Greater Williamsburg event was presented by Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. The Norwegian company announced in September 2024 plans to build a 150,000-square-foot missile manufacturing facility in James City County.
The facility, the first in the United States for Kongsberg, is expected to create 200 jobs. A groundbreaking is expected soon, though an exact location of the facility has not been announced. The project is the largest investment in James City County since Anheuser Busch opened the brewery in 1972.
Brandy Centolanza, bcentolanza@cox.net
