While it may be too early to break out the snow shovels, Connecticut residents may want to prepare for a more snowy winter ahead, officials said.
Accuweather meteorologists are projecting snowfall totals to be higher than last winter in parts of the Northeast, including Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, though totals may still finish below average as storms during mid-to-late winter may produce a mix of rain and snow rather than just snow, according to Accuweather meteorologists.
Early in the season, winter storms will track from Canada into the Midwest before pushing toward the mid-Atlantic and New England, where some could strengthen into nor’easters, according to an Accuweather winter forecast. By late winter, the storm track is expected to shift, bringing systems from the Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Appalachians, Midwest and Northeast.
“Last year, Connecticut only got about 20-25 inches of snow and mostly in the northern part of the state, this year we’re expecting a little more than that in the 30-35 inch range,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok. “But that’s still way under the average which is close to 50 inches of snow. But the reason we’re thinking a little more snow this year is because we had no typical Nor’easter’s that developed on the East Coast last year. But this year, we do think there could be some rapid developments coming down out of Canada and the Midwest.
“It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic,” Pastelok said.
The first day of winter this year falls on Sunday, Dec. 21, but cold will take hold early in December before easing in January, when a brief thaw is likely, according to Accuweather. With the absence of an arctic dry air mass, there may be more opportunities for snow. Pastelok said that frigid Arctic air generally brings dry air not big snow storms. With less Arctic air forecasted this winter, it raises the opportunity for more moisture.
“We may be lacking a lot of cold in front of these systems, so we may see these systems come up as snow and then turn into sleet and possibly freezing rain,” Pastelok said. “So a lot of people may say that’s not too bad. But these mixed systems can cause headaches for travel and for the state’s Department of Transportation. So we could have an active season, but there may be a disconnect between the cold and the moisture.”
By February, winter is forecast to return in force, with frigid air expanding across the central and eastern U.S., Pastelok said.
Stephen Underwood can be reached at sunderwood@courant.com.
