Virginia voters who tuned into the only gubernatorial debate of the campaign may have come away disappointed if they were hoping for a clear policy discussion, according to one political analyst.
Thursday’s event at Norfolk State University was the only scheduled matchup between Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who are running to be Virginia’s first woman governor. Some topical questions received a direct answer, but many did not, leading the moderators to continually repeat their queries.
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“This was a lot of combat, lots of personal attacks, and in many cases, a policy-thin conversation,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “In fact, you could barely hear at some points what Congresswoman Spanberger was trying to say because of the constant interruptions.”
Earle-Sears spent much of the debate interrupting Spanberger’s answers, as moderators tried to rein in her interjections. Much of her attack centered on recently publicized texts that Democratic attorney general candidate sent a colleague in 2022. Jones described a hypothetical situation where he would shoot the Republican Speaker of the House.
“It was embarrassing to watch this person who resides over the Senate, the oldest continuous democracy in the Western Hemisphere, behave in such a rude way over and over and over again,” current Speaker of the House Don Scott, a Portsmouth Democrat, told reporters Thursday night. “It was unhinged, was unprofessional, was uncalled for.”
But Mark Harris, a political consultant for Earle-Sears, said the strategy was effective.
“I don’t think there’s anyone who doesn’t want a governor that’s aggressive,” he said after the debate. “You saw someone who went out and who made the case on why she should get the vote.”
Though the candidates did not directly answer every question, that doesn’t mean they didn’t come away with what they might have wanted.
“For the lieutenant governor, it was a vision of herself as a tough, combative partisan fighter,” Farnsworth said. “On the Democratic side, Congresswoman Spanberger demonstrated that she had a command of the issues, that she had a level of professionalism even in the face of interruptions and heckling.”
Democrat Jay Jones in June. Newly revealed texts from Jones describe him apparently joking about shooting former House Speaker Todd Gilbert. (Trevor Metcalfe/File)
Recent polling from Christopher Newport University found Spanberger ahead by 10 points among likely voters. But the survey was conducted before the Jones texts became public. The Jones texts dominated the first part of Thursday’s debate. Spanberger condemned the comments, but did not say whether she continues to endorse Jones
“”(It’s) very clear that Abigail Spanberger is unwilling to separate herself from Jay Jones’ horrific comments,” Harris said. “Fundamentally, that’s what the rest of this campaign is very likely to be about.”
That could prove to be effective for Republicans, Farnsworth said.
“I think that Democrats in Virginia have been wise to avoid trying to defend the indefensible,” he said. “There’s no doubt that Republicans are wise politically to concentrate on the Jones narrative.
“This has been a huge error on the Democratic side to put forward such a flawed nominee, but that’s on the vetting of the party, and it’s on the choice by a candidate who knows his own weak spots and nevertheless runs for statewide office.”
Jones is scheduled to debate Attorney General Jason Miyares, the Republican incumbent, on Thursday in Richmond.
Before last week, much of the Earle-Sears campaign focused on culture war issues such as whether transgender students should participate in sports and access bathrooms in accordance with their gender but not the sex on their birth certificate.
“The Earle-Sears campaign has really struggled to find something that can really work,” Farnsworth said. “Polling shows that a conversation about trans politics is only important to about 4%, 5% of the electorate. It’s not a major issue for most voters; the economy is. But the Jones campaign has now become a very, very effective target for Republicans.”
Democrats, Farnsworth said, would rather talk about economic and affordability issues.
“(Economic uncertainty) was one of the reasons why the Democrats lost the presidential election last year,” he said. “Polling shows that that uncertainty hasn’t gone away. In fact, it’s higher now than it was a year ago. And that’s a big problem for Republicans running right now.
“But you add to that, of course, the choices that the Trump administration has made that are unpopular, the potential issues of people losing their jobs in the federal government.”
Farnsworth said voters, particularly in areas such as Hampton Roads — where there’s much federal money and employment — could be facing down a trifecta of economic problems: affordability, jobs and uncertainty over tariffs.
“In politics, sometimes you don’t run against the name on the ballot,” he said. “You run against the candidate you wish you were running against. In the same way that Republicans running for office this year have a first name of ‘Trump,’ Democrats are going to be tied to Jones in Republican messaging.”
The Jones campaign declined to comment.
Reporter Trevor Metcalfe contributed to this report.
Kate Seltzer, 757-713-7881, kate.seltzer@virginiamedia.com
