Florida is a very different state than it was 25 years ago.
For starters, as you probably know, it’s now a lot more Republican.
In 2000, we were pretty purple — literally the most evenly split state in America during the 2000 election when the U.S. presidency was decided here by a margin of 0.009%.
Today, Florida’s status as a swing state is a distant memory. Florida 2025 is bright red, literally MAGA country with President Donald Trump calling Florida home and registered Republicans now outnumbering Democrats by more than 1.4 million.
But the reddening of Florida has also been accompanied by slower growth.
We’re still one of America’s fastest-growing states — as Florida has been since the mid-1900s when air conditioning came along and people realized they could move to a state without income taxes and still keep cool indoors.
But our growth rate now is slower — around 1-2% annually — partly because young people are leaving Florida and fewer Democrats are coming.
The slower growth, mixed with a hasty departure of 20-somethings, was cause for concern in the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s last migration report, which noted: “While Florida saw an influx of residents aged 60 and older, younger residents, particularly those aged 20-29, are leaving in significant numbers.”
Put all that together, and you see that Florida is getting redder — not because the people who live here are becoming more conservative, but because more conservatives are moving to Florida while others are leaving.
This trend was addressed in deep, data-driven detail by a new research paper, entitled: “Welcome to the Free State of Florida: In-Migration and Rising Republicanism in the Sunshine State.”
The 50-page report is slated to be published in an upcoming edition of Political Science Quarterly. But one of the authors, University of Florida political science professor Daniel A. Smith, was kind enough to give me a sneak peek.
The report’s numbers tell the story: The average Florida-born resident is more likely to be a Democrat (37% of Florida natives compared with only 31% Republicans). But the people moving here are way more likely to be Republicans (38% GOP compared to 28% Democrats). That’s a big difference. It means that approximately four Republicans are moving here for every three Democrats, which will redden your state in a hurry.
It also makes sense. Florida’s most famous resident is the leader of the MAGA movement himself. And the last two governors, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis, have pushed Florida politics hard right over the past decade or so.
So if you’re a hard-core conservative living in a blue state, it may sound appealing to move somewhere where the leaders aren’t just like-minded, they actively dunk on Democrats every chance they get.
But there are some flip sides to all that — one that concerns the traditionally conservative leaders at the Florida Chamber of Commerce.
One is that growth has generally slowed in Florida. In 2000, when the infamous recount happened, Florida posted a 6% growth in population. In the 1980s, the state’s annual growth ranged from 2.7% to 4.4%. Over the last decade, however, the growth has been around 1.7% — as low as 0.5% and never more than 2.5%.
Last year, the chamber noted a steep drop-off in Florida’s growth rate that “represents a nearly 50% decrease from the previous year and marks the first major decline in net migration in a decade.”
But the chamber honed in on the number of 20-somethings fleeing the state, saying Florida is good at pumping out college grads, but not so good at keeping them here, calling their exodus “particularly concerning.” The reported said young adults cite “the high cost of housing and perceived limited in-state job opportunities for early-career professionals” as reasons for bolting. This is what happens when you have a lot of jobs, but many of them don’t pay very well.
Personally, I’m not as concerned about Florida’s slowing growth. We’re still one of the fastest-growing states in America most every year. And frankly, this state has plenty of population problems already, including clogged roads and concerns about the scarcity of clean water.
Commentary: Could Florida experience a severe water shortage by 2025?
But a state that’s attracting older residents and running off younger ones isn’t a recipe for long-term success, no matter what political persuasion they are.
Yet Florida’s economic and political climate seems designed to exacerbate that trend — with housing prices rising faster than wages and politicians more focused on culture-war issues than economic ones.
The bottom line: Most young families and up-and-coming workers are more interested in being able to afford a house and pay their rent than watching their state’s leaders score political points.
I’m not sure any of that matters much to the politicians in charge. But it definitely matters to those who care about the economy.
