For the past 50 years, a four-year college degree was the pathway to success. Is that economic contract the same now? Here is some information to consider:

What is the return on investment?

For the past five decades, the formula has been to borrow or save for college, then graduate into a good job, repay the borrowed or earned dollars, and enter the middle class. Now college costs can be $30K to over $100K per year.

Since 1980, college costs have risen at least 10 to 20 times, while a graduating salary has risen much less. The average student debt in 1975 was about $2,000. In 2025 it was $40,000 or more. The ROI for some degrees is negative given the debt plus interest, delayed earnings and opportunity costs (five to six years out of the workforce.)

Where does AI fit in?

Now employers don’t have to risk if a candidate can do the job. Employers can test directly through AI if you can understand the job requirements, analyze issues, write correctly, develop strategies, or reason with clarity and logic.

Credentials versus degrees?

In 1970, 11% of the population had a bachelor’s degree. In 2025, 40% do. Now, jobs that once required a high school diploma now require a bachelor’s degree. Jobs that required a bachelor’s now require a master’s degree. The degree becomes an entry ticket, not a differentiator. Credentials in a skill now documents value.

The marketplace ranking?

The most sought-after candidates have a college education with the added credentials in a field of AI that is sought after by the employer. They are management material. Next is the candidate with direct skills and credentials sought by the employer. This can be in the field of AI, or other skill-based occupations.

Third are college graduates with an education that parallels the need of the employer but no technical skills. Last, is the college graduate in a field that doesn’t match the core function of the employer and no tech skills.

Implications?

Higher education needs to change to fit the new marketplace. However, colleges will continue to be valuable in professions that require a license or certifications: Law, medicine, engineering, high finance and research. Online learning and certification for most jobs will expand and become more important in validating skills and competence.

A new model?

The direction going forward appears to be skill development, emersion in AI, added to continuous learning going forward. Employers are less interested in where you went to school than skill sets that add value, ability to learn quickly, use of AI tools and adaptability. If you have a college education, do you have management abilities?

The future belongs to those who can produce, adapt to change and continuously learn.

Ask for an article on a subject or send for a resume review to wkaufmann44@gmail.com.

https://www.pilotonline.com/2026/02/07/my-greener-future-a-new-paradigm/