A draft of the latest National Defense Strategy was recently leaked to Politico. If implemented, the plan proposes to pivot away from China and prioritize protecting the homeland and the Western Hemisphere.

The speed of this proposed change is astonishing and its impact enormously consequential. It’s also confounding as its author is none other than Elbridge Colby, is the under secretary of war for policy in the Department of War. It was Colby who co-wrote the 2018 National Defense Strategy, which unequivocally focused on deterring China and won him praise from neocons in both political parties.

Colby, the grandson of former CIA Director William Colby, followed this up with a highly influential book, “Strategy of Denial,” in which he advocated turning the U.S. focus toward China and away from Europe and the Middle East.

Colby wrote, “If China succeeds, we can forget about housing, food, savings, affordable college for our kids and other domestic needs.” This amplified President Barack Obama’s announcement in 2011 of a foreign policy “rebalance” to Asia. Years of warnings about “The China Threat” followed — until last month.

Why did Colby, this belligerent China hawk, and those within his circle dramatically change course? It’s plausible that they are choosing to conform to Donald Trump and J.D. Vance’s “America First,” agenda (and keep their jobs). It’s also likely — and this is my hope — that influential members of the national security state finally concluded that the U.S. global empire is extremely overextended, in inexorable decline and no longer financially sustainable. China is now considered a peer power and conceded its own sphere of influence.

This appreciation of recalcitrant reality also portends that robust trade between China and the U.S. will gradually resume. Case in point: The Des Moines Register reports that farmers in Iowa are being crushed by Trump’s tariff policies because China is refusing to buy U.S. soybeans. Republican politicians, such as Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who has been bashing China for decades, are now demanding Trump reverse his tariffs on China.

Trump described his recent two-hour phone call with Chinese President Xi as “productive” and there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that the call began relieving tensions and laying the foundation for better bilateral relations between the two countries. Xi indicated progress was being made in ongoing economic and trade negotiations and we know the two leaders will meet in South Korea at the end of October. Trump said he will visit China early next year and Xi would come to the U.S. at a later date. One further possible sign of a more realistic approach to China is that Trump has paused $400 million in weapons to Taiwan.

The new U.S. strategic doctrine also means a deemphasis on Europe. That means there is strong support among neoconservatives in both parties to end U.S. support of Ukraine in the war with Russia despite Trump’s reversing course and throwing his support behind Ukraine in September. The new doctrine means we can also expect the gradual withdrawal of some 80,000 troops from Europe and closing of many of the 750-plus military bases across the globe, including hundreds surrounding China.

All available evidence suggests a new era of foreign policy is unfolding. The U.S. is now operating in a world where it can no longer dictate its will on sovereign nations. This is welcome news for most people around the globe and it also helps to avoid conflict between the U.S and China.

However, for those in the Western Hemisphere, the 2025 defense strategy may mean that under the guise of democracy promotion and fighting “narco-terrorism” we can, at least in the short term, expect accelerated efforts at regime change in Latin America to secure favorable conditions for U.S. corporations.

According to The New York Times, the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean includes dispatching 10 F-35 stealth fighters to Puerto Rico and eight warships to the region. One Navy official said a third destroyer may be repositioned there from the eastern Pacific. Reminiscent of the Monroe Doctrine, the “Big Stick” may be used to whack weaker neighbors to the south, beginning with Venezuela. But even here we can expect that the 7 billion people beyond our border are more willing to act independently and utilize choices now available to them in this emerging new world.

This is a contributed opinion column. Gary Olson is emeritus professor of political science at Moravian University. The views expressed in this piece are those of its individual author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of this publication. Do you have a perspective to share? Learn more about how we handle guest opinion submissions at themorningcall.com/opinions.

https://www.mcall.com/2025/10/10/opinion-heres-what-a-pivot-away-from-china-would-mean/