Today, an unusually large number of politicians are leaving or choosing not to run for Congress. Nine senators and 22 House members have said they won’t run for reelection. Of these departing members, three senators and 12 House members want to run for state office. Another four House members might do so.
This is a reversal of ambition not seen in nearly a century. Historically, ambitious politicians have sought to move from local to state to federal office. Governors often run for the U.S. Senate. Other state officers run for the U.S. House. Further, 19 (40%) of our 47 presidents have been state or territorial governors.
Yet popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2026. Former Republican Govs. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Charlie Baker of Massachusetts don’t want to run for Congress either. Democratic Govs. Andy Beshear (Kentucky), Laura Kelly (Kansas), Tim Walz (Minnesota), and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) are also skipping runs for Congress even though they would be strong candidates.
Eleven current governors previously served in Congress: Democrats Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico), Kathy Hochul (New York), Jared Polis (Colorado), and Walz plus Republicans Kelly Armstrong (North Dakota), Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)), Mike Braun (Illinois), Ron DeSantis (Florida), Mike DeWine(Ohio), Greg Gianforte (Montana) and Jeff Landry (Louisiana).
Meanwhile, members of Congress are running for state office. Two New Jersey House Democrats, Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, ran in New Jersey’s 2025 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sherrill won. Reps. Andy Biggs, R-Az., Byron Donalds, R-Fl., Randy Feenstra R-La., John James, R-Mi., Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., Nancy Mace, R-S.C., Ralph Norman, R-S.C. and John W. Rose, R-Tn., will run for governor of their home states. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Tx., will run for Texas attorney general. Sens. Michael Bennett, D-Co., Marsha Blackburn, R-Tn. and Tommy Tuberville, R-Al., will run for governor.
Rep. Lucy McBath, D-Ga., suspended her gubernatorial campaign due to her husband’s cancer diagnosis but did not rule out re-entering the 2026 race.
House members who have said they might run for governor include Harriet M. Hageman, R-Wy., Joe Neguse, D-Co., Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Tom Tiffany, R-Wi. Of the 19 members of Congress who will or might run for state office, five are Democrats and 14 are Republicans.
Why the reversal of ambition?
Congress members are taking advantage of new opportunity structures available in our federal system. Sixteen of the 19 Congress members are running for open state positions in 2025 or 2026 because the incumbent cannot or will not run again. Biggs and Stefanik might face incumbent governors running for reelection — Democrats Katie Hobbs of Arizona and Kathy Hochul of New York. In South Dakota Rep. Johnson is challenging former Republican Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden who became South Dakota’s governor when Kristi Noem became U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security in January. Rhoden has not announced whether he will run for governor in 2026.
Twelve of the 15 states where Congress members are or might run for office are trifectas where one party controls the governorship and both houses of the legislature. In 10 of the trifectas, the exiting Congress member will face credible opposition, if any, only in their party’s primary election. However, in the Republican trifectas, the Congress member will probably have to stay loyal to President Donald Trump in order to win their primary.
Only McBath of Georgia and Stefanik of New York are in trifectas controlled by the other party.
Today, 38 states are trifectas: 15 Democratic and 23 Republican. The rise of trifecta states has made it more tempting for members of Congress to seek state office when their state is a trifecta controlled by their own party. A November election victory is more likely than in a competitive state with a divided government.
Congress members are also fleeing Washington’s gridlock and Congress’s leadership centralization. By winning the governorship in a trifecta state, an ex-Congress member can rack up more accomplishments and a higher media profile than in the polarized 535-member Congress. Also, governors don’t have to travel to and from D.C. It’s no wonder that more retiring governors are saying “heck no” to a run for Congress.
These developments are a mixed blessing. On the upside, this reversal of ambition reflects the public’s higher levels of trust in state governments and confidence in their ability to get things done compared to the federal government. Members of Congress running for governor could reinvigorate state governments and rebalance power in our federal system after a century of centralization.
The downsides are that fewer seasoned governors with solid track records are taking their talents to Congress. Even worse, Congress members running for executive office in trifecta states controlled by their own party and loyal to the president reinforces the nationalization and partisan polarization already infecting our federal system. This pattern also defeats what the Constitution’s framers hoped would be a bulwark against centralized tyranny — state resistance to federal overreach.
This is a contributed opinion column. John Kincaid is the Robert B. and Helen S. Meyner professor of government and public service at Lafayette College. The views expressed in this piece are those of its individual author, and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of this publication or Lafayette College. Do you have a perspective to share? Learn more about how we handle guest opinion submissions at themorningcall.com/opinions.
