Orange County’s sharp drop in public school enrollment this year has kicked off preliminary discussions about whether some elementary campuses, now nearly half empty, might eventually need to be closed or consolidated.
The student count for Orange County Public Schools fell about 7,000 students in August compared to end-of-the-year tally in May.
The drop was largely at elementary schools, an Orlando Sentinel analysis found, and impacted schools in long-established communities, such as Conway, MetroWest and Winter Park, but also those in newer, fast-growing suburbs such as Horizon West in the southwest corner of Orange.
The drop means a nearly $50 million shortfall in per-student state funding, which forced the district to reassign more than 100 teachers. It also left some schools with much more space than they have students.
The Orange County School Board and district administrators have started discussing whether wings or floors of some schools might need to be shuttered, whether some campuses might eventually need to be closed and whether underused schools should be merged with others, said Rory Salimbene, OCPS’s chief facilities officer.
He called the discussions “very preliminary.”
Only 10 of the district’s 130-plus elementary schools gained more than 1% enrollment this year. The rest saw declines — losing 45 kids on average, or about two classrooms worth of students.
OCPS says the exodus is fueled by several factors, including the state’s rapidly expanding voucher program, which offers public dollars for private school and homeschooling, as well as falling birth rates.
Statewide, Florida’s public school enrollment was predicted to drop by more than 70,000 students this year, and, like OCPS, other school districts are wrestling with steep enrollment drops this fall. Some are already discussing campus closures.
In Orange, the district discussions center on, “What are the schools that are significantly underutilized, and where are those opportunities where consolidation may be an option?” Salimbene said.
Closures are unlikely to happen by next school year, he said, but some campuses operating near half-capacity could shut down part of their campus to save money.
Despite the enrollment drop, OCPS will still open two new schools in August 2026.
Those schools are now under construction in Lake Nona and Horizon West. They will open for the 2026-27 school year and draw students from elementary schools that lost students this year. Salimbene said that despite this year’s enrollment drop, district projections show both regions still growing and a need for more campuses in the years ahead.
Still, once those schools open, the district will pause construction of new schools meant to relieve crowded campuses for several years.
The most startling data point in OCPS’s recent student count, the Sentinel found, is that new campuses built to accommodate a rapidly growing student population now find themselves with fewer youngsters on their campuses.
Castleview Elementary School in Horizon West, for example, opened in 2019 to relieve crowding at three other elementary schools, including Independence Elementary School, which before Castleview debuted had 30 portable classrooms to help accommodate 1,400 students on a campus meant for about 800.
Castleview got crowded in the years after it opened, too, and was relieved by another newly built school in 2022.
But this year, Castleview’s enrollment is down by about 60 students, and so are several other schools in the Horizon West area, which has been the county’s fastest growing region.
Schools in long-established neighborhoods saw even sharper declines.
MetroWest Elementary School, which opened in the 1980s, lost 20% of its students, the highest percentage of any school in the county. MetroWest dropped 112 students, now enrolling only 448 students on a campus built for about 840 pupils.
Similarly, Conway Elementary School lost 64 students, so now 370 students are on a campus built for about 640.
When a school’s enrollment falls to about half-capacity, the district has to consider whether attendance zones must be changed, whether the school needs to be merged with other campuses, or, in extreme cases, whether it needs to closed down, said Melissa Byrd, vice chair of the school board.
That’s because schools with so few students do not generate enough money to be self-supporting and drain from the district’s budget, she said.
“There are some schools across the district that are definitely concerns,” Byrd said.
She declined to discuss specific campuses, adding that discussions had “just started.”
In Byrd’s district, which includes Apopka and northwest Orange, Dillard Street Elementary School lost 56 students, more than 10% of its population. The school now operates at about 58% capacity, with 436 students on a campus designed for 750.
But some Apopka-area schools have grown. Zellwood Elementary School gained 44 students this year, so it is now just over its capacity of about 630.
Despite stunted public school enrollment, overall population growth isn’t slowing down in Orlando, said David Myers, a real estate agent in Lake Nona, another fast growing region.
While high interest rates have somewhat slowed the housing market, there’s still plenty of people searching for homes, including those with school-age children.
“There’s still quite a few families. I would probably say at any given point, 50% of my customers are families,” Myers said.
