Rate-Hike Odds Slump As US Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since COVID In June

Rate-Hike Odds Slump As US Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since COVID In June

With oil prices having tumbled (before this latest resurgence) but semiconductor prices soaring still, expectations were for a small 0.1% MoM decline in CPI but in fact it printed dramatically cooler, dropping 0.4% MoM – the biggest monthly decline since COVID (April 2020), dragging the YoY CPI change down to +3.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Both Goods and Services costs saw YoY growth decline…

Energy dominated the decline while Core Services rose very modestly…

Energy’s decline was the largest since Aug 2022…

Oil’s tumble (as we predicted) helped a lot…

On a short-term annualized basis, inflation collapsed… from 8.2% to 2.8%…

Core CPI was unchanged (also below expectations), slowing the annual pace of inflation to +2.5% YoY…

Supercore CPI also saw it biggest MoM drop since COVID, down -0.2% MoM, led by Education & Communication, and Transportation services

If JPMorgan traders are right, this should mean a 1-1.5% gain in stocks…

Rate-hike odds plunged…

So will Fed Governor Waller walk back his hawkishly panicky remarks yesterday?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/14/2026 – 08:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-consumer-prices-plunge-most-covid-june