Real Retail Sales Slump YoY Despite ‘Seasonally-Adjusted’ Surge In September

October 17, 2024

Real Retail Sales Slump YoY Despite ‘Seasonally-Adjusted’ Surge In September

As we warned in our preview last night, the almost omniscient folk at BofA warned, ‘brace’ for a blowout retail sales print this morning, forecasting a huge 0.8% MoM rise in spending (well above the 0.2% consensus) all due to seasonal adjustments.

BofA was mostly right with all the retail sales cohorts coming in hot – headline +0.4% (+0.3% exp), ex-autos +0.5% MoM (+0.1% exp), and most notably the control group (which flows into the GDP calc) +0.7% MoM (+0.3% exp).

Headline retail sales MoM beat was not enough top keep the YoY print improving as it dropped to +1.7% YoY – the weakest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

On an unadjusted basis, Retail sales fell a shocking 7.5% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest positive September seasonal adjustment in history…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Core retail sales rose 4.0% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Spending at Gas stations and Furniture Stores fell on a MoM basis while Food Services and Food & Beverage Stores spending jumped most…

Source: Bloomberg

On an unadjusted basis, retail sales were flat (0.0%) YoY which means (roughly speaking) real retail sales were down notably on a YoY basis…

Source: Bloomberg

So, take your pick – is retail spending ‘hot’ or is inflation eating into personal incomes more than many think?

Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/17/2024 – 08:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real-retail-sales-slump-yoy-despite-seasonally-adjusted-surge-september

Real Retail Sales Slump YoY Despite ‘Seasonally-Adjusted’ Surge In September <body> <h1> Array ( [0] => eeal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [1] => deal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [2] => feal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [3] => teal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [4] => 5eal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [5] => 4eal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [6] => rwal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [7] => rsal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [8] => rdal retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [9] => rral retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [10] => r4al retail sales slump yoy despite 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sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [23] => real 5etail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [24] => real 4etail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [25] => real rwtail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [26] => real rstail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [27] => real rdtail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [28] => real rrtail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [29] => real r4tail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [30] => real r3tail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [31] => real rerail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [32] => real refail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [33] => real regail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [34] => real reyail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [35] => real re6ail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [36] => real re5ail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [37] => real retzil sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [38] => real retsil sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [39] => real retwil sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [40] => real retqil sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [41] => real retaul sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [42] => real retajl sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [43] => real retakl sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [44] => real retaol sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [45] => real reta9l sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ 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salea slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [70] => real retail salez slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [71] => real retail salex slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [72] => real retail saled slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [73] => real retail salee slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [74] => real retail salew slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [75] => real retail sales alump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [76] => real retail sales zlump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [77] => real retail sales xlump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [78] => real retail sales dlump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [79] => real retail sales elump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september [80] => real retail sales wlump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in september 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yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted&#u217; surge in september [267] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted&#i217; surge in september [268] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted␁ surge in september [269] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted᾵ surge in september [270] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted&#8q17; surge in september [271] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted&#8w17; surge in september [272] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted⁽ surge in september [273] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted‣ surge in september [274] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted&#82q7; surge in september [275] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted‘ surge in september [276] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted&#821y; surge in september [277] => real retail sales slump yoy despite 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=> real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ s8rge in september [290] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ s7rge in september [291] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ suege in september [292] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ sudge in september [293] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ sufge in september [294] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ sutge in september [295] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ su5ge in september [296] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ su4ge in september [297] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surfe in september [298] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surve in september [299] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surbe in september [300] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surhe in september [301] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surye in september [302] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surte in september [303] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surgw in september [304] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surgs in september [305] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surgd in september [306] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surgr in september [307] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surg4 in september [308] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surg3 in september [309] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge un september [310] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge jn september [311] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge kn september [312] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge on september [313] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge 9n september [314] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge 8n september [315] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge ib september [316] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge im september [317] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge ij september [318] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge ih september [319] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in aeptember [320] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in zeptember [321] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in xeptember [322] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in deptember [323] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in eeptember [324] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in weptember [325] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in swptember [326] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in ssptember [327] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sdptember [328] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in srptember [329] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in s4ptember [330] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in s3ptember [331] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in seotember [332] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in seltember [333] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in se-tember [334] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in se0tember [335] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in seprember [336] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sepfember [337] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sepgember [338] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sepyember [339] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sep6ember [340] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sep5ember [341] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septwmber [342] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septsmber [343] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septdmber [344] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septrmber [345] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sept4mber [346] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in sept3mber [347] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septenber [348] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septekber [349] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septejber [350] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septemver [351] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septemner [352] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septemher [353] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septemger [354] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembwr [355] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembsr [356] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembdr [357] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembrr [358] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septemb4r [359] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septemb3r [360] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembee [361] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembed [362] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembef [363] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembet [364] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembe5 [365] => real retail sales slump yoy despite ‘seasonally-adjusted’ surge in septembe4 ) </h1> </body>