Democrats are pouring resources into races across the commonwealth in an effort to expand the party’s slim majority in the House of Delegates — that includes several battleground elections in Hampton Roads.
House District 69, which includes parts of Newport News, Gloucester, James City and York counties, has seen an infusion of cash.
Republican incumbent Chad Green has raised just shy of $500,000. But his opponent, Mark Downey, has netted more than $700,000. In September, the last month included in campaign finance reports, Downey netted $133,500 from the Virginia House Democratic Caucus and another $85,000 from the Democratic Party of Virginia, according to reports posted on the Virginia Public Access Project.
Mark Downey. (Courtesy image)
Earlier this year, Virginia House Democrats announced intentions to invest funds into campaigns seeking to flip 14 Republican-held seats — including District 69 — in addition to four Democrat-held seat the caucus is looking to protect.
Downey, who has twice run unsuccessfully for a House seat, said he outperformed expectations in both attempts, which attracted additional support from his caucus. Now, he said his campaign has even more winning potential.
“It’s all about getting the message out, getting what’s important in this election,” Downey said. “I think that’s been the big change time around, what that support has allowed us to do. We’re still knocking on doors.
“We’re still meeting people there, just like we did the first time, but this allowed us to reach them in more avenues.”
State Navigate, a nonpartisan political research nonprofit which projects Democrats will gain additional seats this year, lists District 69 as among the commonwealth’s tightest races. VPAP describes the district as having a slight Republican lean, but has it bordering on competitive.
To combat his opponent’s extra infusion of cash, Green said he has relied on opportunities to connect with constituents.
“Meeting the voters directly is far more effective than running TV ads,” Green said in a statement. “If you can win on ideas and talk to real constituents, you don’t need to buy an election.”
On a recent weekday morning, that meant Green was standing alongside Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears at a campaign stop outside a Williamsburg bistro. Green stood before a handful of local residents and a tour bus with “Winsome Governor” decals and handwritten messages from supporters like “Go Winsome.”
He opened the news conference discussing his opposition to a local decision allowing transgender swimmers to compete in a local summer swim league as the gender they identify with rather than their sex assigned at birth.
Green said he’s heard a lot of questions and concerns from constituents about transgender athletes’ competition in local sports leagues.
“I’m being a representative of the people,” Green said. “It’s a legitimate issue. It’s not something I’m drumming up.”
Sharing the stage with Earle-Sears, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, on a topic they are both concerned about is “common sense,” he said.
“It’s nice to see the leaders in the state, such as the lieutenant governor, back your position,” Green said after the event.
What’s at stake?
Democrats hold a 51-49 majority in the House. With all 100 seats up for election this year, whichever party controls the House could make or break the political agenda for the state’s new governor — Earle-Sears or Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
But while Democrats are running in all 100 districts, Republicans are fielding candidates in 84.
Republicans controlled the House for more than 20 years before Democrats took control of the House, Senate and governor’s mansion in 2019. Democrats have held the majority in the Senate since, though the control of the House, which has elections every two years has flipped — to Republicans in 2021 and back to Democrats in 2023.
That momentum has helped propel historic investments from Democrats into battleground races, according to Campaigns Chair for the Democratic Caucus Dan Helmer. The caucus announced last month it had nearly doubled Republicans’ fundraising efforts and had amassed $5 million for House candidates across 18 competitive districts. Helmer said the caucus wired that $5 million to those districts Tuesday.
Helmer said the Democratic caucus assessed districts presidential contender Kamala Harris won or narrowly lost in the 2024 general election, and decided to compete in every one his year.
Virginia’s House GOP caucus did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
In Hampton Roads, other House of Delegates seats that Democrats have targeted to flip include District 86 on the Peninsula and District 89 in Chesapeake and Suffolk.
GOP defense
Over the summer, Republicans were focused on initiatives to drive up early and absentee voting among conservatives.
In more recent attempts to counter Democrats’ efforts, some Republican groups have seized on the text message scandal involving Democratic candidate for attorney general Jay Jones.
The scandal has brought new financing infusions to Republicans. The Republican Governors Association added a $1.5 million boost to Earle-Sears’ campaign in the days after news broke about Jones, according to Politico.
Additionally, Heritage Action, a national conservative PAC, announced it was launching efforts to flip four battleground districts red directly in response to Jones’ texts, including House Districts 65, 84, 89 and 97.
“Virginia is the frontline of the fight for America’s future. The only way to stop the Left’s radical takeover is to win elections,” said Heritage Action Vice President Tiffany Justice said in a statement announcing the PAC’s efforts. “That starts by flipping key seats in Virginia.”
Justice declined to comment further on the organization’s efforts across Virginia.
District 89 is an open seat held by a retiring Republican. Democrat Karen Kacey Carnegie faces Republican Mike Lamonea. VPAP considers the race competitive. Lamonea has raised roughly $650,000 while Carnegie has raised $1.7 million — roughly $930,000 coming from the Virginia House Democratic Caucus in September.
Heritage Action has made about $62,000 in independent expenditures in the District 89 race, mostly for pro-Lamonea messaging, according to VPAP.
In House District 97 in Virginia Beach, former Republican Del. Tim Anderson is seeking to oust Democratic incumbent Michael Feggans. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin previously called the race “the road to the majority” for his caucus.
Heritage Action has made about $50,000 in independent expenditures in that race, mostly for pro-Anderson messaging. But in that race, Democrats have also tipped the balance on fundraising. Anderson has raised about $630,000. Feggans has amassed more than $1.6 million, with more than $715,000 donated by the House Democratic Caucus in September, according to VPAP.
Anderson said local races are being bombarded with more money than any candidate can effectively use, especially on the Democratic side. He said his approach is targeted toward digital ads on platforms such as YouTube and TV confined to Virginia Beach residents, rather than plastering ads for one race across the region.
“Even if I had it, I wouldn’t want to do that. I don’t think that’s effective,” Anderson said. “That’s trying to find a needle in a haystack approach or shooting an ant with a shotgun.“
Anderson said he differs from caucus colleagues such as Green in that he isn’t locking arms with other Republican candidates across the state, and is looking to appeal to a more bipartisan voter group.
Contrasts in messaging
Along with platforming issues like affordability, health care access an abortion access, Helmer said the caucus money for candidates is going toward building anti-Trump campaigns as a result of federal actions like the expansion of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity, tariffs and federal cuts.
“The unwillingness of the MAGA Republicans in the Virginia House, whether it’s because of cowardice or they agree with the tariffs and the cuts to the federal government, to stand up, has put more of this map in play then we would have thought possible two years ago,” Helmer said.
However, Alex Keena, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University specializing in election research, said that money could be better spent focusing on addressing issues that affect Virginia, such as federal spending to the state being cut or the rapid growth of data centers, rather than attacking the Trump administration and Republicans that support him.
“This is a low turnout election, and you can’t guarantee that people are even going to show up to the polls, so your message should be mobilizing. It should be inspiring,” Keena said. “You should have issues that resonate with people on the ground level, and instead, we see this negative campaigning and fear, and what that ends up doing is demobilizing in a way that could help Republicans.”
Keena added Republicans are banking on “culture war” issues such as transgender athletes in high school sports to steer voters away from Democrats, while Democrats are exerting significant effort to take a “higher road” to attract the elusive median voter.
But despite what either side attempts to tell its voter base, Keena said any election without a presidential candidate on the ballot is subject to surprising results.
“Because this is such a low turnout election, we don’t really know how it’s going to pan out,” Keena said. “There’s polls that show Spanberger doing pretty well, but there’s a lot of error in those polls, and pollsters still haven’t really figured out how to build these models in the age of Trump, because Trump support is always understated.”
Devlin Epding, 757-510-4037, devlin.epding@virginiamedia.com
